Voter Turnout and the Dynamics of Electoral Competition in Established Democracies since 1945

Cover......Page 1
Half-title......Page 3
Title......Page 5
Copyright......Page 6
Dedication......Page 7
Contents......Page 9
Figures......Page 10
Tables......Page 11
Preface......Page 13
The Authors......Page 17
Introduction......Page 19
Why So Much Turnout Change – or Why So Little?......Page 27
Change Compared to What? Other Countries or Other Times?......Page 32
Something About Societies or Something About People?......Page 34
How Do We Know When an Association Is Causal?......Page 36
Two Faces of Socialization......Page 38
The Role of Mobilization......Page 41
Individual-Level Change or Change in the Structure of Society?......Page 43
Something About People’s Characteristics or Something About Their Motivations?......Page 45
The Relevant Contest: Local or National?......Page 48
Solving the Voter Turnout Puzzles......Page 49
A Note on Statistical Tests......Page 53
2 A New Approach to the Calculus of Voting......Page 55
The Riker and Ordeshook Model......Page 56
What We Have Learned that was not Known to Riker and Ordeshook......Page 58
Voters in Context: Obtaining Information, Eliminating Uncertainty......Page 61
Schelling’s “Sufficiency” Model: Rational Voting in the Context of a Coalition......Page 64
A Contextualized Model of the Decision to Vote......Page 67
Subjective Probabilities and the Strategic Calculus of Multiperson Games......Page 73
Discussion......Page 74
3 The Role of Generational Replacement in Turnout Change......Page 77
The Socializing Effect of Younger Enfranchisement......Page 81
Hypotheses......Page 84
Data and Methods......Page 85
The Generational Basis of Turnout Variations......Page 86
Multivariate Analysis......Page 92
Assessing the Findings......Page 96
Types of Cumulative Effects......Page 99
Measuring the Size of the Electorate at Each Election......Page 104
Measuring the Proportion of the Electorate that Is New at Each Election......Page 106
4 Rational Responses to Electoral Competition......Page 109
A Tale of Two Outliers......Page 110
Understanding Low Turnout in the United States......Page 116
Turnout and Insulation from Election Outcomes......Page 123
An Inventory of Variables Affecting Electoral Competition......Page 130
Which Independent Variables Have Cumulative Effects?......Page 132
Short-Term Effects, Cumulative Effects, and the Habit of Voting......Page 135
5 Explaining Turnout Change in Twenty-Two Countries......Page 137
Research Strategy......Page 138
Estimation Issues......Page 144
Hypotheses......Page 147
Preliminary Analyses......Page 149
Findings......Page 150
Assessing the Findings......Page 154
Effects of Other Variables......Page 160
Implications......Page 164
6 The Character of Elections and the Individual Citizen......Page 169
Comparing Effects of Elections’ Character with Effects of Individual Characteristics......Page 180
Discussion......Page 185
7 Understanding Turnout Decline......Page 189
Tallying the Sources of Turnout Decline......Page 190
What Caused the Rise in Turnout Up to 1965?......Page 195
What Caused the Additional Fall in Turnout During the Later Period?......Page 196
An Inventory of Turnout Change in Twenty-Two Countries......Page 198
The Mainsprings of Turnout Change......Page 203
Discussion......Page 208
Implications for Rational Choice Theorizing......Page 213
Implications for Research into Voting Choice......Page 215
Implications for the Study of Turnout in Other Countries......Page 216
8 The Turnout Puzzles Revisited......Page 219
Why Do People Vote – Or Why Do They Not Vote?......Page 220
Social Networks and Social Capital......Page 221
The Habit of Voting......Page 222
Something About People, Something About Society, or Something About Elections?......Page 223
How Turnout Conditions Individual-Level Relationships......Page 224
The Primacy of Electoral Competition......Page 225
Variations Relative to What?......Page 226
Change in Behavior or Change in Social Structure?......Page 227
Responsiveness of New Cohorts......Page 228
Major Findings......Page 229
Turnout Decline......Page 230
The Voting Age......Page 231
Other Incidental Factors......Page 232
Civic Virtue and Disaffection......Page 233
Mobilizing Agencies......Page 234
The American Case......Page 235
The Swiss Case......Page 236
Rigging the System......Page 237
Electoral Reform in Switzerland and the United States......Page 238
Electoral Reform in the European Union......Page 240
Solving the Low Voter Turnout Problem......Page 241
appendix a The Surveys Employed in This Book......Page 243
appendix b Aggregate Data for Established Democracies, 1945–1999......Page 249
Derived Variables......Page 251
appendix c Supplementary Findings......Page 255
Converting Logistic Regression Coefficients to Differences in Proportions......Page 265
Bibliography......Page 269
Author Index......Page 281
Subject Index......Page 285