Self-Learning Control of Finite Markov Chains

WHAT EVERY ENGINEER SHOULD KNOW ABOUT DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY......Page 0
Copyright Info\r......Page 2
PREFACE......Page 5
ABOUT THE AUTHOR\r......Page 10
CONTENTS......Page 11
1.1 CASE STUDY: GALILEO\'S CANTILEVER BEAM......Page 16
SUPPORT......Page 19
1.2 IMPACT OF ENGINEERING DECISION MAKING......Page 22
1.3 UNCERTAINTY AND RISK ENGINEERING......Page 27
1.4 DECISION MAKING AND SYSTEM ANALYSIS......Page 30
1.5 ENGINEERING DECISION MAKING IN SIX STEPS......Page 31
STEP 1: ENSURE LEADERSHIP AND COMMITMENT......Page 32
STEP 2: FRAME THE PROBLEM......Page 33
STEP 3: DEVELOP EVALUATION MODELS AND FORMULATE ALTERNATIVES......Page 34
STEP 4: COLLECT MEANINGFUL, RELIABLE DATA......Page 35
STEP 5: EVALUATE ALTERNATIVES AND MAKE A DECISION......Page 36
STEP 6: DEVELOP AN IMPLEMENTATION PLAN......Page 37
ANALYSIS......Page 38
PLANNING......Page 39
EVALUATION......Page 40
1.7 SUMMARY......Page 41
REFERENCES......Page 42
2.1 CASE STUDY: PRODUCTION OF ELECTRONIC MODULES......Page 45
2.2 HOW WOULD ENGINEERS FLIP COINS?......Page 47
2.3 SYNTHESIZE KNOWLEDGE INTO A SIMULATION MODEL......Page 54
2.4 SIMULATION FOR WHAT-IF ANALYSIS......Page 65
2.5 SIMULATING CONDITIONAL INDEPENDENCE......Page 68
SPC EXTENT......Page 70
INCOMING MATERIAL QUALITY AND DELIVERY MEASURES......Page 71
PROCESS TIME-RELATED MEASURES......Page 73
PRODUCTION FLEXIBILITY RELATED MEASURES......Page 75
2.7 SUMMARY......Page 76
REFERENCES......Page 78
3.1 CASE STUDY: A BIOENGINEERING FIRM......Page 82
3.2 NORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS......Page 85
3.3 LOGNORMAL DISTRIBUTIONS......Page 91
SELECTION OF NORMAL DISTRIBUTION......Page 96
SELECTION OF LOGNORMAL DISTRIBUTION......Page 98
3.5 DECISION TREE ANALYSIS......Page 99
NODES AND BRANCHES......Page 100
TERMINAL VALUES......Page 103
PLANNING AND PAYOFF DISTRIBUTION......Page 104
3.6 CAPITAL BUDGETING......Page 108
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES......Page 109
DATA GENERATION......Page 110
3.7 SUMMARY......Page 113
REFERENCES......Page 114
4.1 CASE STUDY: A TRANSPORTATION NETWORK......Page 117
4.2 COVARIANCE AND CORRELATION......Page 122
4.3 LINEAR FUNCTIONS OF SEVERAL RANDOM VARIABLES......Page 126
4.4 MULTIVARIATE NORMAL RANDOM VARIABLES......Page 129
4.5 ESTIMATING CORRELATIONS FROM DATA......Page 132
4.6 ACCURACY OF SAMPLE ESTIMATES......Page 135
WHAT IS RESPONSIVENESS?......Page 140
RESPONSIVENESS AND RELIABILITY FROM THE CUSTOMER\'S PERSPECTIVE......Page 141
4.8 SUMMARY......Page 142
REFERENCES......Page 143
5.1 CASE STUDY: A CONSTRUCTION PROJECT......Page 146
5.2 THE LAW OF EXPECTED POSTERIORS......Page 149
5.3 LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS......Page 153
5.4 REGRESSION ANALYSIS AND LEAST SQUARED ERRORS......Page 158
5.5 THE THEORY OF CONSTRAINTS......Page 164
5.6 SUMMARY......Page 167
REFERENCES......Page 168
6.1 CASE STUDY: PRODUCTION PLANNING OF SNOWBOARDS......Page 171
6.2 METHOD 1: SIMULATING PAYOFFS FOR EACH ENGINEERING STRATEGY......Page 174
6.3 METHOD 2: SIMULATING PAYOFFS FROM ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES SIMULTANEOUSLY......Page 179
6.4 METHOD 3: OPTIMIZING ENGINEERING DECISION VARIABLES TO MAXIMIZE PAYOFF......Page 182
6.5 VALUE OF INFORMATION FOR ENGINEERING DECISIONS......Page 185
6.6 DECISION CRITERIA: HOW TO VALUE ENGINEERING ALTERNATIVES......Page 189
6.7 EVALUATION OF CASH FLOW INFORMATION: PAYBACK METHOD......Page 196
6.8 THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY......Page 198
THE HURDLE RATE......Page 204
NPV CALCULATIONS......Page 207
6.10 EVALUATION OF CASH FLOW INFORMATION: INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN (IRR) METHOD......Page 209
6.11 VARIABLE CASH FLOW......Page 210
6.12 PROJECT RANKING......Page 212
6.13 SUMMARY......Page 213
REFERENCES......Page 214
7.1 CASE STUDY: EXPANSION OF A FIBER OPTICS FIRM OFFICE SPACE......Page 217
PLANS PREPARATION......Page 218
PURCHASE FURNISHINGS......Page 219
7.2 ESTABLISH A PROJECT SCHEDULING NETWORK......Page 220
DEFINITIONS......Page 221
7.3 SPREADSHEET STRATEGIES FOR SOLVING CPM PROBLEMS USING EXCEL......Page 223
7.4 SOLVING CRITICAL PATH PROBLEMS USING EXCEL SOLVER......Page 225
7.5 CRASHING CPM NETWORKS USING EXCEL......Page 227
7.6 DEVELOPING AN APPROXIMATE PERT SOLUTION IN EXCEL......Page 231
7.7 DEVELOPING A COMPLETE PERT SOLUTION IN EXCEL......Page 234
7.8 PROBABILISTIC SOLUTIONS TO PROJECT SCHEDULING SIMULATION USING EXCEL......Page 236
TOP-DOWN PROJECT BUDGET BUILDING......Page 238
BOTTOM-UP BUDGET BUILDING......Page 239
ACTIVITY VS. TASK-ORIENTED BUDGETS......Page 240
BUILDING FEASIBLE PROJECT TIME FRAMES......Page 241
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN COMPLETION TIME, PROJECT ACTIVITIES, AND THEIR COSTS......Page 242
7.10 SUMMARY......Page 244
REFERENCES......Page 245
8.1 PROCESSES AND PROCESS VARIABILITY......Page 248
8.2 STATISTICAL PROCESS CONTROL......Page 252
EXTREME POINT CONDITION......Page 254
CONTROL CHART ZONES......Page 255
FOUR OF FIVE CONSECUTIVE POINTS IN ZONE B OR BEYOND......Page 256
LINEAR TRENDS......Page 257
AVOIDANCE OF ZONE C......Page 258
RUN IN ZONE C......Page 259
CONSIDERATIONS IN DETERMINING SUBGROUP (SAMPLE) SIZE......Page 260
CONSIDERATIONS IN COLLECTING SAMPLES......Page 261
THE PROBLEMS OF STRATIFICATION AND MIXING......Page 262
DETERMINE IF SPECIFICATIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING MET......Page 263
8.6 CAPABILITY INDEXES......Page 264
THE CAPABILITY INDEX - CP......Page 265
THE CAPABILITY INDEX - CPK......Page 266
THE CAPABILITY INDEX - CPM......Page 267
WHAT IS CQI AND/OR TQM?......Page 268
WHAT IS BPR ALL ABOUT?......Page 270
8.8 SIX SIGMA QUALITY......Page 271
8.9 SUMMARY......Page 273
REFERENCES......Page 274
9.1 ENGINEERING DECISION MAKING: PAST, PRESENT, AND FUTURE......Page 277
9.2 ENGINEERING DECISION MAKING TOOL BOX......Page 280
PROCESSES AND PROCESS VARIABILITY......Page 281
CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT AND TOTAL QUALITY MANAGEMENT......Page 282
TQM/CQI PHILOSOPHY AND PRACTICES......Page 283
THE CONCEPT OF A SYSTEM......Page 284
TEAMS......Page 285
THE THEORY OF CONSTRAINTS (TOC)......Page 286
STRATEGIC PLANNING (INCLUDING MISSION, VALUE, AND VISION STATEMENTS)......Page 287
BUSINESS PROCESS RE-ENGINEERING......Page 288
BENCHMARKING AND BEST PRACTICES......Page 289
EXTERNAL VALIDATION MODELS (ISO-9000, QS-9000, THE DEMING PRIZE, AND THE BALDRIGE AWARD)......Page 290
LEARNING ORGANIZATION CONCEPTS......Page 291
9.3 BALANCING TECHNICAL MERITS, ECONOMY, AND DELIVERY......Page 292
9.4 ENGINEERING DECISION MAKING IN A CORPORATE SETTING......Page 295
9.5 SUMMARY......Page 300
REFERENCES......Page 301
PROJECT PLANNING......Page 304
ENGINEERING RESOURCE MANAGEMENT......Page 305
ANALYSIS AND REPORTING......Page 306
LIMITS......Page 307
TECHNICAL SUPPORT......Page 308
APPENDIX B FOUR PRIMARY CONTINUOUS DISTRIBUTIONS......Page 309
EXPONENTIAL:......Page 310