Everyday Probability and Statistics - Health, Elections, Gambling and War

Contents......Page 6
Introduction......Page 12
1.1. Probability and Everyday Speech......Page 16
1.2. Spinning a Coin......Page 17
1.3. Throwing or Spinning Other Objects......Page 19
Problems 1......Page 21
2.1. Either–or Probability......Page 24
2.2. Both–and Probability......Page 26
2.3. Genetically Inherited Disease — Just Gene Dependent......Page 27
2.4. Genetically Dependent Disease — Gender Dependent......Page 30
2.5. A Dice Game —American Craps......Page 32
Problems 2......Page 34
3.1. Kinds of Probability......Page 36
3.2. Betting on a Horse......Page 38
3.3. The Best Conditions for a Punter......Page 42
Problem 3......Page 44
4.1. Children Leaving a Room......Page 46
4.2. Picking a Team......Page 48
4.3. Choosing an Email Username......Page 51
4.4. The UK National Lottery......Page 52
Problems 4......Page 55
5.1. The Birthday Problem......Page 56
5.2. Crown and Anchor......Page 60
5.3. To Switch or Not to Switch — That is the Question......Page 63
Problems 5......Page 65
6.1. Finding the Best Treatment......Page 66
6.2. Testing Drugs......Page 69
Problems 6......Page 75
7.1. A Simple Probability Machine......Page 78
7.2. Pontoon —A Card Game......Page 81
7.3. The Throwers Chance of Winning at American Craps......Page 83
Problems 7......Page 86
8.1. The Need to Test for Fairness......Page 88
8.2. Testing Random Numbers......Page 90
8.3. The UK National Lottery......Page 93
8.4. American Craps with Loaded Dice......Page 95
8.5. Testing for a Loaded Die......Page 100
8.6. The Roulette Wheel......Page 102
Problems 8......Page 104
9.1. Variation in Almost Everything......Page 106
9.2. A Shoe Manufacturer......Page 107
9.3. Histogram Shapes......Page 110
9.4. Lofty and Shorty......Page 112
Problem 9......Page 115
10.1. Probability Distributions......Page 116
10.2. The Normal Distribution......Page 119
10.3. The Variance and Standard Deviation......Page 121
10.4. Properties of Normal Distributions......Page 122
10.5.1. Some Special Numbers......Page 125
10.5.2. Powers of Numbers......Page 126
10.7. Random and Systematic Errors......Page 128
10.8.1. Electric Light Bulbs......Page 130
10.8.2. People on Trolleys and Under-Used Resources......Page 131
Problems 10......Page 134
11.1. Too Much Information......Page 136
11.2. Another Way of Finding the Variance......Page 137
11.3. From Regional to National Statistics......Page 138
Problems 11......Page 141
12.1. Rare Events......Page 142
12.2. Typing a Manuscript......Page 144
12.3. The Poisson Distribution as a Formula......Page 146
12.4. Death by Horse Kicks......Page 148
12.5.1. Flying Bomb Attacks on London......Page 150
12.5.2. Clustering of a Disease......Page 152
12.5.3. Some Further Examples......Page 153
Problems 12......Page 154
13.1. Election Polls......Page 156
13.2. Polling Statistics......Page 157
13.3. Combining Polling Samples......Page 160
13.4. Polling with More than Two Parties......Page 162
13.5. Factors Affecting Polls and Voting......Page 164
Problems 13......Page 165
14.1. Why do we Sample?......Page 166
14.2. Finding out from Samples......Page 167
14.3. An Illustrative Example......Page 169
14.5. Quality Control......Page 171
14.6. How Many Fish in the Pond?......Page 173
Problems 14......Page 175
15.1. The Significance of Differences......Page 176
15.2. Significantly Different — So What!......Page 178
Problem 15......Page 181
16.1. Crime and the Reporting of Crime......Page 182
16.2. The Trend for Overall Crime in England and Wales......Page 183
16.3. Vehicle Crime, Burglary, and Violent Crime......Page 185
16.4. Homicide......Page 188
16.5. Crime and Politicians......Page 190
Problem 16......Page 192
17.1. Genetics and Disease......Page 194
17.2. The Incidence of Smoking in the United Kingdom......Page 196
17.3. The Smoking Lottery......Page 198
Problem 17......Page 200
18.1. The Winds of Chance......Page 202
18.2. Choices......Page 205
18.3. I Want a Lucky General......Page 206
18.4. To Fight or Not to Fight — That is the Question......Page 208
18.5. The Mathematics of War......Page 211
Problem 18......Page 215
Problems 1......Page 216
Problems 2......Page 217
Problem 3......Page 218
Problems 4......Page 219
Problems 5......Page 220
Problems 6......Page 221
Problems 7......Page 222
Problems 8......Page 223
Problems 10......Page 225
Problems 11......Page 226
Problems 13......Page 227
Problems 14......Page 228
Problem 16......Page 229
Problem 18......Page 230
Index......Page 232