World Energy Outlook 2009.

FOREWORD......Page 5
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS......Page 7
TABLE OF CONTENTS......Page 14
List of figures\r......Page 23
List of tables......Page 33
List of boxes......Page 38
List of spotlights......Page 40
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY......Page 43
Scope and methodology......Page 55
Population......Page 58
Economic growth......Page 60
Energy prices......Page 65
Technology......Page 70
PART A - GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS TO 2030......Page 73
Highlights\r......Page 75
Primary energy mix......Page 76
Regional trends......Page 78
Sectoral trends......Page 81
Oil market outlook......Page 83
Biofuels outlook......Page 89
Gas market outlook\r......Page 90
Coal market outlook......Page 91
Electricity demand......Page 98
Electricity supply......Page 99
New capacity and investment in infrastructure......Page 104
Water desalination......Page 105
Energy investment......Page 106
Highlights\r......Page 111
Global trends in energy-related CO2 emissions\r......Page 112
Local and regional air pollution\r......Page 115
Oil security......Page 117
Natural gas security......Page 122
Electricity security......Page 124
Spending on imports......Page 125
Export revenues......Page 127
Implications for energy poverty\r......Page 130
Highlights\r......Page 137
How the crisis has affected energy investment so far......Page 138
Global trends and near-term outlook......Page 140
Impact of the credit crunch on oil and gas financing......Page 141
Upstream investment......Page 143
Downstream investment......Page 151
Implications for capacity — are we heading for a mid-term supply crunch?......Page 152
Impact on biofuels investment......Page 153
Overview......Page 156
Impact on major coal producers......Page 157
Electricity demand......Page 159
Power-sector investment trends and outlook......Page 160
Nuclear power investment......Page 162
Renewables-based power-generation investment......Page 163
What role for government?......Page 166
PART B - POST-2012 CLIMATE POLICY FRAMEWORK......Page 167
Highlights\r......Page 169
Introduction......Page 170
Trends across all sectors......Page 171
Global trends in energy-related CO2 emissions......Page 172
Trends in energy-related CO2 emissions in key regions......Page 183
Sectoral trends in energy-related CO2 emissions......Page 186
Greenhouse-gas concentration......Page 192
Climatic consequences......Page 193
A global carbon budget to last a generation?......Page 194
Energy sector lock-in......Page 196
Highlights\r......Page 197
Greenhouse-gas emissions trajectory......Page 198
Policy framework......Page 203
Macroeconomic impact......Page 205
Implications for energy-related CO2 emissions......Page 206
Contribution of different abatement measures to the450 Scenario......Page 212
Implications for energy demand......Page 213
Oil......Page 218
Natural gas......Page 219
Coal......Page 220
Highlights\r......Page 223
Power generation......Page 224
Carbon intensity and CO2 reductions in the power sector......Page 225
Evolution of the generation mix......Page 230
Capacity additions......Page 236
Mothballed and decommissioned plants......Page 237
Transport......Page 238
Road transport......Page 239
Aviation and maritime......Page 243
Energy trends and fuel mix......Page 244
Regional trends......Page 245
Implications for technology deployment......Page 247
Implications for transport industry structure and policy......Page 248
Industry......Page 249
Regional trends......Page 251
Sub-sectors......Page 252
Buildings\r......Page 253
Regional trends......Page 254
Highlights\r......Page 259
Incremental investment needs in the 450 Scenario......Page 260
Timing of incremental investment......Page 264
Overall investment in power plants\r......Page 265
Investment in nuclear power......Page 268
Investment in renewable energy for large-scale power production......Page 271
Investment in carbon capture and storage (CCS)......Page 273
Investment in biofuels production......Page 275
Passenger cars......Page 276
Investment in industry......Page 280
Investment in buildings......Page 282
Investment in fossil-fuel supply......Page 284
Reduced local pollution......Page 288
Valuing the benefits of the 450 Scenario......Page 290
Current status......Page 292
Role for governments to enhance RD&D......Page 293
Highlight\r......Page 295
Financial support for mitigation in developing countries......Page 296
Overall level of support by OECD+ countries......Page 298
Carbon markets and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)......Page 301
International funding pools......Page 310
Financing issues for businesses, households and governments......Page 313
Financing by businesses......Page 315
Financing by households......Page 316
Financing by governments......Page 317
What is included in the profiles?......Page 321
World......Page 324
OECD+......Page 328
The United States (US)......Page 332
The European Union (EU)......Page 336
Japan......Page 340
Other Major Economies (OME)......Page 344
Russia......Page 348
China......Page 352
Other Countries (OC)......Page 356
India......Page 360
PART C - PROSPECTS FOR \rNATURAL GAS......Page 365
Highlights\r......Page 367
Reference Scenario......Page 368
450 Scenario......Page 374
Understanding the drivers of gas demand......Page 376
The relationship between gas use and economic activity......Page 377
Economics of inter-fuel competition......Page 380
The impact of technological innovation and climate change......Page 387
Government policies and geopolitics......Page 389
Highlights\r......Page 391
Classifying gas resources......Page 392
Proven reserves......Page 393
Gas in place and ultimately recoverable resources......Page 396
Unconventional gas: characteristics and production technology......Page 399
Tight gas......Page 400
Coalbed methane......Page 401
Shale gas......Page 402
Gas hydrates......Page 413
Technology to exploit shale gas......Page 415
Above-ground considerations......Page 416
Long-term gas-supply cost curve......Page 418
The world’s largest gas fields......Page 419
Production profiles and decline rates......Page 423
Highlights\r......Page 427
Reference Scenario......Page 428
450 Scenario......Page 445
Investment requirements to 2030......Page 447
Cost trends......Page 450
Highlights\r......Page 455
Gas demand......Page 456
Gas supply: United States......Page 458
Gas supply: Canada and Mexico......Page 460
Gas demand......Page 461
Russian gas supply......Page 465
Caspian gas supply......Page 473
Gas demand......Page 478
Gas supply......Page 480
Europe’s 2020 supply options......Page 482
Regional demand and supply......Page 487
Qatar......Page 489
Iran......Page 492
Other Middle East......Page 496
Africa......Page 499
Asia-Pacific\r......Page 503
Latin America......Page 506
Highlights\r......Page 509
Gas pricing along the supply chain......Page 510
North America: what will drive gas prices?......Page 511
Continental Europe: what role for gas-on-gas competition?......Page 517
Asia-Pacific: how will pricing evolve in the main importing countries?......Page 522
Rest of the world: will price-setting become more market-based?......Page 526
LNG trade and the prospects for regional gas market convergence......Page 527
Contractual arrangements: more flexibility in prospect......Page 528
Spot trade: renewed growth or consolidation?......Page 529
LNG as a driver of regional gas market integration......Page 533
PART D - ENERGY PROSPECTS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA......Page 535
Highlights\r......Page 537
ASEAN energy overview......Page 538
Economic growth......Page 541
Population......Page 543
Energy pricing and subsidies\r......Page 544
Energy demand......Page 545
Oil supply......Page 550
Natural gas supply......Page 554
Coal supply......Page 557
Power sector......Page 558
Renewables supply......Page 564
Energy-related CO2 emissions and local pollution......Page 565
Energy investment......Page 567
The 450 Scenario......Page 568
Energy demand......Page 569
Energy-related CO2 emissions......Page 570
Incremental investment and co-benefits......Page 571
ASEAN energy co-operation......Page 572
The ASEAN Power Grid......Page 574
The Trans-ASEAN gas pipeline......Page 576
ASEAN oil security\r......Page 579
Highlights\r......Page 583
Overview and assumptions......Page 584
Energy policy......Page 585
Energy demand......Page 587
Oil supply......Page 590
Natural gas supply......Page 591
Coal supply......Page 592
Electricity generation......Page 594
Overview and assumptions......Page 595
Energy policy......Page 597
Energy demand......Page 599
Oil supply......Page 601
Electricity generation......Page 602
Overview and assumptions......Page 603
Energy policy......Page 605
Energy demand......Page 606
Oil supply......Page 608
Natural gas supply......Page 609
Electricity generation......Page 611
Climate change and local pollution......Page 612
Overview and assumptions......Page 613
Energy policy......Page 614
Energy demand......Page 616
Oil supply......Page 617
Electricity generation......Page 618
Climate change and local pollution......Page 620
ANNEXES......Page 621
ANNEX A - TABLES FOR REFERENCE SCENARIO PROJECTIONS......Page 623
ANNEX B - SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS......Page 661
ANNEX C - ABBREVIATIONS, DEFINITIONS AND CONVERSION FACTORS......Page 667
ANNEX D - ACRONYMS......Page 677
ANNEX E - REFERENCES......Page 681