World Energy Outlook 2008

FOREWORD......Page 5
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS......Page 7
TABLE OF CONTENTS......Page 14
List of figures\r......Page 22
List of tables......Page 30
List of boxes......Page 34
List of spotlights......Page 36
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY......Page 39
INTRODUCTION......Page 53
PART A - GLOBAL ENERGY \rTRENDS TO 2030......Page 58
Highlights\r......Page 61
Government policies and measures......Page 62
Population......Page 65
Economic growth......Page 66
Oil prices......Page 70
Natural gas prices......Page 74
Technology......Page 75
Highlights\r......Page 79
Primary energy mix......Page 80
Regional trends......Page 82
Sectoral trends......Page 85
Resources and production prospects......Page 87
Inter-regional trade......Page 89
Trends by region and energy source......Page 90
Highlights\r......Page 93
Trends in primary oil demand......Page 94
Regional trends......Page 99
Sectoral trends......Page 100
Implications for spending on oil......Page 102
Production\r......Page 104
Inter-regional trade......Page 107
Highlights\r......Page 111
Demand......Page 112
Regional trends......Page 114
Sectoral trends......Page 115
Production\r......Page 117
Inter-regional trade......Page 121
Highlights\r......Page 125
Demand......Page 126
Reserves and production......Page 129
Inter-regional trade\r......Page 133
Coal prices and supply costs......Page 136
Coal investment......Page 138
Highlights\r......Page 141
Electricity demand......Page 142
Outlook for electricity generation......Page 144
Trends in coal-fired generation......Page 146
Trends in gas-fired generation......Page 148
Trends in nuclear power......Page 149
Trends in CO2 capture and storage......Page 151
New capacity and investment needs in infrastructure......Page 153
Trends in construction costs......Page 154
Cost and efficiency assumptions......Page 155
Electricity prices......Page 158
Highlights\r......Page 161
Global trends in the use of renewable energy......Page 162
Renewables for electricity......Page 164
Hydropower......Page 167
Wind power......Page 168
Solar photovoltaics......Page 170
Geothermal power......Page 172
Biofuels......Page 173
Renewables for heat......Page 178
Traditional biomass......Page 179
Investment in renewable energy......Page 180
Highlights\r......Page 181
Why focus on cities?......Page 182
Current and projected energy use in cities......Page 184
Background......Page 186
Reference Scenario projections......Page 187
Background......Page 189
Reference Scenario projections......Page 190
Background......Page 191
Reference Scenario projections......Page 192
Background......Page 193
Reference Scenario projections......Page 194
PART B - OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION \rPROSPECTS......Page 196
9.  TURNING OIL RESOURCES INTORESERVES\r......Page 199
Highlights\r......Page 223
Understanding production patterns and trends......Page 224
The importance of size......Page 227
Regional differences......Page 229
Standard production profiles......Page 231
Focus on giant fields......Page 234
Approach and definitions......Page 235
Results of the analysis......Page 238
The impact of field age and maturity......Page 242
Trends in observed decline rates......Page 243
Deriving an estimate of the average global observed decline rate......Page 244
Estimating historical trends......Page 245
Long-term prospects for natural decline rates......Page 249
Highlights\r......Page 251
Summary of projections in the Reference Scenario......Page 252
Crude oil output at existing fields......Page 257
Contribution of new fields to crude oil production......Page 258
Enhanced oil recovery (EOR)......Page 262
Natural gas liquids (NGLs)......Page 263
Non-conventional oil......Page 264
Crude oil quality......Page 267
Non-OPEC production......Page 268
OPEC production......Page 274
Sensitivity of oil output to decline rates......Page 278
Highlights\r......Page 281
Conventional gas......Page 282
Non-conventional gas......Page 286
Gas production prospects......Page 291
OECD North America......Page 293
OECD Europe......Page 295
Eastern Europe/Eurasia......Page 296
Non-OECD Asia......Page 299
Middle East......Page 300
Africa......Page 302
Latin America......Page 304
Highlights\r......Page 305
Recent investment trends and near-term outlook......Page 306
New upstream projects......Page 312
Capital-cost trends......Page 313
Trends in upstream activity......Page 322
Implications for oil-production capacity......Page 324
Outlook for investment to 2030......Page 325
Depletion policies of resource-rich countries......Page 327
Profitable opportunities for international companies to invest......Page 330
Availability of people and equipment......Page 331
Highlights\r......Page 335
The emergence of a new world order for oil......Page 336
The resurgence of the national oil companies......Page 338
International oil companies in profitable retreat......Page 345
Implications for future investment and supply......Page 350
Towards a more efficient industry......Page 352
Strengthening strategic partnerships......Page 353
Highlights\r......Page 357
Overview......Page 358
Resources and reserves......Page 360
Oil and gas production and exports......Page 361
Oil refining......Page 365
Household energy access in sub-Saharan African countries......Page 366
Cooking practices......Page 367
Electricity access......Page 368
Projected trends in access to modern energy services......Page 371
Quantifying the costs involved in expanding access......Page 372
Managing revenues from oil and gas......Page 376
PART C - THE ROLE OF ENERGY IN \rCLIMATE POLICY......Page 380
Highlights\r......Page 383
Overview......Page 384
Regional trends......Page 386
Trends per capita and per unit of GDP......Page 390
Sectoral trends......Page 393
Projected trends in overall greenhouse-gas emissions......Page 399
Long-term greenhouse-gas concentrations and average global temperature......Page 403
Hydropower......Page 404
Other renewable energy systems......Page 405
Projected trends in local and regional air pollution......Page 406
Highlights\r......Page 409
Co-ordinated global action to address climate change......Page 410
Environmental and societal effects of different stabilisationlevels......Page 412
Practical considerations in reducing emissions......Page 413
Climate scenarios modelled in WEO-2008......Page 415
Participation......Page 418
Principles for allocating responsibilities......Page 421
Policy mechanisms......Page 423
Cap-and-trade systems......Page 425
Sectoral agreements......Page 429
National policies and measures......Page 434
Highlights\r......Page 437
Modelling approach......Page 438
Energy prices......Page 439
Primary energy demand......Page 441
Energy-related CO2 emissions......Page 444
Emissions of gases other than energy-related CO2......Page 449
Power generation......Page 452
Industry......Page 459
Transport......Page 463
Buildings and other sectors......Page 466
Power generation......Page 469
Industry......Page 474
Transport......Page 475
Buildings and other sectors......Page 476
Energy security......Page 477
Local and regional air pollution......Page 478
Highlights\r......Page 481
Investment implications of the 550 Policy Scenario......Page 482
Regional implications of the 550 Policy Scenario......Page 483
Implications of the 550 Policy Scenario for the electricity sector......Page 485
Implications of the 550 Policy Scenario for the transport sector......Page 487
Costs and benefits of the 550 Policy Scenario......Page 489
Investment implications of the 450 Policy Scenario......Page 490
Replacement of capital stock in the power sector......Page 494
Carbon markets......Page 497
Technology diffusion......Page 501
Implications for policy......Page 503
ANNEXES......Page 505
ANNEX A. TABLES FOR REFERENCE SCENARIO \rPROJECTIONS......Page 507
ANNEX B. ABBREVIATIONS, DEFINITIONS \rAND CONVERSION FACTORS......Page 543
ANNEX C. \rACRONYMS......Page 553
ANNEX D. \rREFERENCES......Page 557