Volatile States in International Politics

Cover
Volatile States in International Politics
Copyright
Dedication
Contents
Acknowledgments
List of Abbreviations
1. Introduction
	The Puzzle
	Making Sense of States’ Behaviors
	Volatility vs. Other Forms of Change in States’ Behaviors
	Why Volatility Matters
	Two Ways to (Wrongly) Dismiss Volatility
	The Argument in Brief
	The Goals of This Book
	Research Design
	Book Outline
2. Theory: When Does Volatility Increase?
	Step One: Relative Power
	Step Two: Interest Heterogeneity
	Step Three: The Interaction
	Alternative Explanations
	Conclusions
3. Measuring Volatility
	Capturing Cooperation and Conflict
	Capturing Dynamics
	Isolating Volatility
	Measuring Volatility: A Two-​Step Procedure
	Summarizing Volatility
	The Measure in Practice
	A Multipronged Approach to Measuring Volatility
	Conclusions
4. Volatility and Rivals
	Statistical Analysis Design
	Measuring Relative Power Superiority
	Measuring Heterogeneous Domestic Interests
	Alternative Explanations
	Results and Discussion
	Conclusions
5. Volatility and Allies
	France in 1954
	France’s Relative Power
	France’s Domestic Interests
	Theoretical Predictions
	Retracing Volatile French Behavior
	Interests and Power Produce Volatility
	Alternative Explanations
	France Exits NATO: 1966
	Conclusions
6. Conclusions
	A New Perspective
	What Can Volatility Tell Us?
	Broader Implications for Research
	Taking Volatility Seriously
	Moving Forward
Appendix
	A Note on Scaling
	Measuring the Dependent Variable Using the Box-​Jenkins Procedure
	Summarizing Volatility
	Monthly Data
Notes
Bibliography
Index