Statistics and Probability in Forensic Anthropology

Front Matter
Copyright
Dedication
Contributors
Acknowledgment
Introduction
What ``statistical´´ questions can we expect from judges? An introductory note from a European adversarial s ...
Study design and sampling
	Introduction
	Study design
	Sample size and power
	Sampling
	Measurement error/bias
	Concluding remarks
	References
	Recommended reading
Physical and virtual sources of biological data in forensic anthropology: Considerations relative to practit ...
	Introduction
	Biological data and the concept of ``population specificity´´
	Skeletal collections in physical and forensic anthropology
	Documented versus nondocumented
	Contemporary versus noncontemporary
	Representativeness
		Documented human skeletal collections (physical)
		Documented human skeletal collections (virtual)
	Conclusions
	References
	Recommended reading
Initial assessment: Measurement errors and interrater reliability
	Introduction
	Before you start
	Assessment of measurement error
	Assessment of the inter-rater reliability for observational data
	References
General considerations about data and selection of statistical approaches
	Introduction
	Considerations about data
		Qualitative variables (categorical, nominal, or ordinal variables)
		Quantitative variables
	Accuracy, precision, trueness, and reliability
	Method selection and evaluation
	Diving deeper into considerations on method selection and interpretation in forensic anthropology
		Hypothesis testing and interpretation
		The use of P-values
		Errors and their meaning in statistics and methodological approaches
	Conclusion
	References
	Recommended reading
Probability distributions, hypothesis testing, and analysis
	Introduction
	Bayesian versus frequentist analysis
	Statistical testing and modeling
	Probability distributions
	Parametric and nonparametric tests
	Measures of strength of association
	Statistical models
	Testing a test/method
	Conclusion
	Reference
	Recommended reading
Data mining and decision trees
	Introduction
	Data mining
	Decision trees
	Example: Decision tree for cranial morphological sex assessment
	Improving decision trees
	References
	Recommended reading
Frequentist approach to data analysis and interpretation in forensic anthropology
	Introduction
		Exploratory data analysis (EDA)
		Hypothesis testing
		Comparing two independent samples and the t-test
		Deviation from normality
		Estimating unknown parameters
		Estimating continuous variables: Linear regression
		Estimating categorical variables: Logistic regression
		Model selection
		Assessing performance: Model validation
	Discussion
	References
Use of Bayes theorem in data analysis and interpretation
	Introduction
	Principles
		The question should be made explicit in propositions
		The answer should be based on information and expertise
		The scientist should not deviate from the laws of logic
	Logic
	Implications for forensic interpretation
	Examples
	Contextual information
	Errors of reasoning
	Phrasing propositions
	Conclusion
	References
Sex estimation using nonmetric variables: Application of R functions
	Introduction
		Binary logistic regression
		Linear discriminant analysis
		Sex assessment of an unknown individual using morphological traits: considerations
		Sex estimation using R
	Discussion and conclusion
	References
	Recommended reading
Sex estimation using continuous variables: Problems and principles of sex classification in the zone of unce ...
	Introduction
	Material
	Sexual dimorphism and the accuracy of sex estimation
	Discriminant function analysis in sex estimation
	Accuracy overestimation and cross-validation
	The population specificity of discriminant functions
	Sex estimation in the zone of uncertainty
	Conclusion
	Acknowledgment
	References
Age estimation of living persons: A coherent approach to inference and decision
	Introduction
	Uncertainty and inference in forensic age estimation
	Bayesian perspective in forensic age estimation
		Posterior probability distribution on the chronological age
		Prior probability distribution on the chronological age
		Likelihood function
	Bayesian inference from an operational perspective
	Normative approach to decision in age estimation
	A hypothetical case example
		Assessing the needs of the mandating authority
		Evidence collection
			Physical examination and age estimation interview
			Skeletal and dental evidence
		Evidence interpretation
			Prior probability assignment
			Likelihood assignment
			Sensitivity analysis on prior probability
			Decision theory in the example case
	Discussion and conclusion
	Acknowledgment
	References
Extreme learning machine neural networks for adult skeletal age-at-death estimation
	Introduction
	Training neural networks for age-at-death estimation
		The extreme learning machine algorithm
		Efficient training and regularization
		Obtaining valid prediction intervals with neural networks
			Conformal prediction
	Performance analysis
	Funding
	References
Statistical approaches to ancestry estimation: New and established methods for the quantification of cranial ...
	Introduction
	Linear discriminant analysis (LDA)
	Geometric morphometrics (GM)
	Ensemble modeling
	Admixture approach
		The quantification of nonmetric results
	Concluding remarks
	Acknowledgment
	References
Stature estimation
	Introduction
		Completely preserved skeletal remains
		Partially preserved skeletal remains of an individual whose population origin is known
		Partially preserved skeletal remains of an individual whose population origin is unknown
	Final remarks
	References
Osteomics: Decision support systems for forensic anthropologists
	Introduction
	Biogeographic prediction
		AncesTrees (http://osteomics.com/AncesTrees/)
		rASUDAS (http://osteomics.com/rASUDAS/)
		hefneR (http://osteomics.com/hefneR/)
	Estimation of body parameters
		MassReg (http://osteomics.com/MassReg/)
		SPINNE (http://osteomics.com/SPINNE/)
		RAXTE (http://osteomics.com/raxter/)
	Age-at-death estimation
		DXAGE (http://osteomics.com/DXAGE/)
		SAMS (http://osteomics.com/SAMS/)
	Sex diagnosis
		SeuPF (http://osteomics.com/SeuPF/)
		CADOES (http://osteomics.com/CADOES/)
		Ammer-Coelho (http://osteomics.com/Ammer-Coelho/)
	Final remarks
	References
	Recommended reading
Fordisc: Anthropological software for estimation of ancestry, sex, time period, and stature
	Introduction
	Ancestry and sex estimation with linear discriminant functions
	Stature estimation with linear regression
	Fordisc
		What kind of data can you use in Fordisc?
			Cranial measurements
			Mandibular measurements
			Postcranial measurements
			Principal component analysis
		What kind of population samples are in Fordisc?
			Forensic data Bank (FDB)
			Howells
		Output
			Standard results page
			Leave-one-out cross validation
			Posterior probability (PP)
			Typicalities
			Stature
			Graphic output
		Statistical group comparison
	How can Fordisc results be presented in court?
	References
Geometric morphometrics
	Introduction
	The concept of shape
	Types of analyses within geometric morphometrics
		Principal component analysis
		Canonical variates analysis (CVA)
		Multivariate regression
		Partial least squares (PLS) analysis
	Visualization
	Symmetry and asymmetry
		Symmetry
		Asymmetry
	Software
		ThreeSkull
		MorphoJ
		3D-ID
		R programs
	References
Bayesian inference in personal identification
	Introduction
	Sex estimation
	Age estimation
		Age estimation for investigative purposes
		Age estimation for evaluative purposes
	Combining evidence
	Acknowledgment
	References
Visual identification of persons: Facial image comparison and morphological comparative analysis
	Introduction
	Terminology: Identification versus recognition
	The morphological comparative analysis
	Methodology in visual identification of persons
	Controlling visual perception
	Evidential value of morphological comparative analysis
	Conclusion
	References
Communicating evidence with a focus on the use of Bayes theorem
	Introduction
	Explaining Bayes theorem
	Different modes of reporting
	Reporting the propositions
	Reporting the strength of the evidence
	The use of a verbal scale
	Dealing with uncertainty
	The different meanings of LR=1
	Conclusions
	References
IBM SPSS statistics
	Introduction
		IBM SPSS statistics overview
		SPSS data import
		SPSS data editing
		Missing values
		Statistical analysis in SPSS
		The outcome of statistical analysis in SPSS
	Conclusion
	Reference
	Recommended reading
An introduction to the R language
	Introduction
	The R working environment
	Types of data
	Data input
	Graphs
	Libraries
	Statistical analysis in R
	References
	Websites using R for anthropology
	Recommended reading
Stata
	Introduction
	Data management
	Analysis
	Graphics and reporting
	Help
	References
	Recommended reading
SAS
	Introduction
	Data step
	Data presentation
	Reference
Glossary
Index
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	Q
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