Simulating Transitions to Agriculture in Prehistory

Preface
Acknowledgments
Contents
Contributors
Chapter 1: An Introduction to Simulating Transitions to Agriculture in Prehistory
	1.1 Modeling and the Spread of Agriculture
	1.2 Computational Models in Archaeology
	1.3 Computational Modeling and Complex Adaptive Systems
	1.4 Benefits of Computational Modeling in Archaeology
		1.4.1 Models Allow Replication
		1.4.2 Models Enable Experimentation
	1.5 About This Book
	1.6 Conclusion
	References
Chapter 2: The Spread of Agriculture: Quantitative Laws in Prehistory?
	2.1 Introduction
	2.2 Comparison of Neolithic Spread Rates
	2.3 Relative Importance of Demic and Cultural Diffusion
	2.4 Conclusions
	References
Chapter 3: The Essential Geography of the Impresso-Cardial Neolithic Spread
	3.1 Introduction
	3.2 Material and Methods
		3.2.1 The Impresso-Cardial Neolithic
		3.2.2 Spatial Interpolation of Chronological Information
		3.2.3 Radiocarbon Evidence in the West Mediterranean
		3.2.4 Modelling the Essential Geography of the Neolithic Spread
	3.3 Results
		3.3.1 Individual Geographic Maps and Maximum Distance
		3.3.2 Ranking Geographic Maps and Maximum Distance
	3.4 Discussion
	3.5 Conclusions
	References
Chapter 4: A Bayesian Chronomodel for an Economic Approach to the Onset of Farming in Northwestern Mediterranean and the Western Alpine Foreland
	4.1 Introduction
		4.1.1 Archaeological Context
		4.1.2 Archaeozoological and Archaeobotanical Context
			Statistics to Model 14C Data. Bayesian Methodology as an Example
	4.2 Material and Methods
		4.2.1 Radiocarbon Dates Core
		4.2.2 Student’s T-Test and Bhattacharyya Coefficient: Measuring the Distance Between the Stochastic Boundaries
			Temporal Characterisation of the Hunter-Gatherer and Farming Groups Reality
			Archaeobotanical and Archaeozoological Data Arranged According to the Scenarios of Interaction
		4.2.3 Ecoregions with Scenarios Overlap
		4.2.4 Ecoregions with Scenarios of No Overlap
	4.3 Conclusions
	References
Chapter 5: Assessing Population Dynamics in the Spread of Agriculture in the Mediterranean Iberia Through Early Warning Signals Metrics
	5.1 Introduction
	5.2 Archaeological Background
	5.3 Materials and Methods
	5.4 Results
	5.5 Conclusions
	References
Chapter 6: Cultural Hitchhiking in the Context of the First Agricultural Groups of South-Western Europe: A Simulation Study
	6.1 Introduction
	6.2 Cultural Spread: A Simple Model of Cultural Hitchhiking
		6.2.1 Overview
		6.2.2 Design Concepts
		6.2.3 Details
	6.3 Model Parametrization and Analyses
		6.3.1 Parametrization
		6.3.2 Analyses
	6.4 Results
	6.5 Discussion
	6.6 Conclusions
	References
Chapter 7: The Dynamics of Risk Perception in a Mediterranean Agroecosystem
	7.1 Introduction
	7.2 Decision-Making in a Game Against Nature
		7.2.1 The Payoff Matrix
		7.2.2 Subjective Expected Yields
	7.3 Early to Mid-Holocene Drought Risks
		7.3.1 Paleoclimate Simulation
		7.3.2 Estimating Drought Risks
	7.4 Modeling Risk Perception
		7.4.1 Prior Beliefs and Bayesian Agents
		7.4.2 Bayesian Updating and the Weight of Past Experience
	7.5 Risk Management and the Dynamics of Risk Perception
	7.6 Conclusion
	References
Chapter 8: Early Neolithic Farming Activities in High Mountain Landscapes of the Pyrenees: Simulating Changes in Settlement Patterns
	8.1 Introduction
	8.2 Materials and Methods
		8.2.1 Materials
			Early Mesolithic (MESO I): 8500–6500 cal BC
			Late Mesolithic (MESO II): 5725–5375 cal BC
			Early Neolithic (E_NEO): 5600–4300 cal BC
			Late Neolithic/Chalcolithic (L_NEO): 3400–2300 cal BC
		8.2.2 Methods
	8.3 Results
	8.4 Discussion
	8.5 Conclusions
	Bibliography
		Cartography
Chapter 9: Evaluating the Influence of Neolithic Agropastoral Land Use on Holocene Fire Regimes Through Simulated Sedimentary Charcoal Records
	9.1 Introduction
		9.1.1 Advancing Interpretations Through Simulations and Proxy Modeling
	9.2 Background
		9.2.1 Neolithic Revolution in the Mediterranean Basin
		9.2.2 Case Studies of Social and Ecological Change During the Neolithic Period in Eastern Spain
			Canal de Navarrés: Environmental and Cultural Background
			L’Estany de Banyoles: Environmental and Cultural Background
			Villena Paleolake: Environmental and Cultural Background
		9.2.3 The Charcoal Record Simulation Model (CharRec)
	9.3 Methods
		9.3.1 Coring Locations, Deposition Rates, and Sedimentary Charcoal Data
		9.3.2 CharRec Model Parameters
	9.4 Results
	9.5 Discussion
		9.5.1 Long-Term Convergence and Divergence from Climate-Driven Fire Regimes in Eastern Spain
			Canal de Navarrés
			L’Estany de Banyoles
			Villena Paleolake
	9.6 Conclusions
	References
Chapter 10: “Digital Proxies” for Validating Models of Past Socio-ecological Systems in the Mediterranean Landscape Dynamics Project
	10.1 Models in Archaeology
		10.1.1 Validating Models
	10.2 The Mediterranean Landscape Dynamics Project
		10.2.1 MedLanD Modeling Laboratory
	10.3 Validating Socio-ecological Systems Models
		10.3.1 Empirical Proxy Data and Analysis
		10.3.2 Modeling Experiments and Digital Proxies
	10.4 Results and Validation Tests
	10.5 Conclusions
	10.6 Access to Data and Analysis
	References
Chapter 11: The Transition to Early Farming in Europe
	11.1 Introduction
	11.2 Transitioning in Space and Time
	11.3 Returning to the LBK
	11.4 Discussion
	References
Index