Seasonal Flood Forecasts and Warning Response Opportunities: ENSO Applications in Bangladesh

Preface: Why Are El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-Based Seasonal Forecasts Important in Bangladesh?
Acknowledgments
Contents
About the Author
List of Appendices
List of Figures
List of Tables
Chapter 1: Introduction: Seasonal Flood Potential in Bangladesh
	1.1 The Importance of Seasonal Flood Forecasts in Bangladesh
	1.2 What Is a Probabilistic Seasonal Forecast?
	1.3 What Is ENSO?
	1.4 La Niña and Bangladesh Floods?
	1.5 What Is the Causal Connection Between La Niña and Seasonal Flooding in Bangladesh?
	1.6 How Helpful Are the Seasonal Forecasts in Bangladesh?
	1.7 Literature Review
	1.8 Book Contents: Chapters
	References
Chapter 2: Hydro-Meteorological Variability and Opportunity for Seasonal Forecasts in Bangladesh
	2.1 Introduction: Flood Hydrology
		2.1.1 Rainfall Patterns
		2.1.2 Flood Hydrology
		2.1.3 Sources of Floods
		2.1.4 Causes of Floods
		2.1.5 Occurrence of Floods
		2.1.6 Flood Frequency Analysis
	2.2 Hydro-Meteorological Variability: Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basins
		2.2.1 Data, Basic Indices, and Method
		2.2.2 Findings
	2.3 Conclusions
	Appendices
		Appendix 1: Result of the Frequency Analysis of Flood-Affected Areas
		Appendix 2: Gumbel’s Extreme Value Distribution
	References
Chapter 3: History of Flood Forecasts and Early Warning in Bangladesh
	3.1 Introduction: What Is an Early Warning System?
	3.2 History and Growth of EWS in Bangladesh
		3.2.1 Indigenous EWS in Bangladesh
		3.2.2 Advanced Flood Forecasting and EWS
	3.3 The Role of the FFWC and Early Warning Systems in Bangladesh: The Experience of the Catastrophic Flooding in 1998
	3.4 Causes of 1998 Flood: La Niña and Rainfall
		3.4.1 Water Level Rise in Chandpur
		3.4.2 River Stage
	3.5 Activities of the Flood Forecasting Center During 1998 Flood
		3.5.1 Data Collection and Processing
		3.5.2 Meteorological Forecasting and Boundary Estimation
	3.6 Flood Forecasting by Numerical Modeling
		3.6.1 MIKE-11 Flood Routing Model
		3.6.2 Flood Status Mapping
	3.7 Flood Warning Dissemination by Daily Bulletin
		3.7.1 Comprehensive Flood Perspectives
	3.8 Evaluation of Flood Forecasting in Bangladesh
		3.8.1 Data Source and Methodology
		3.8.2 Performance Evaluation of Boundary Estimates
		3.8.3 Performance Evaluation of Flood Forecasting
		3.8.4 Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
		3.8.5 Boundary Estimation
	3.9 Scopes of Improvements
		3.9.1 Precipitation Forecasts
		3.9.2 Non-tidal Boundary Estimation
		3.9.3 Tidal Boundary Estimation
		3.9.4 Coastal Flood Forecasting
		3.9.5 Warning Dissemination and Feedback Technique
	3.10 Discussions and Recommendations
	References
Chapter 4: Overview of Weather, ENSO, and Climate Scale
	4.1 Introduction: The Weather and Climate Scale
	4.2 What Is ENSO and IOD
		4.2.1 ENSO
		4.2.2 Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
	4.3 ENSO Is the Main Triggers of IOD
	4.4 Future State of ENSO: El Niño Simulation from CMIP5 Models
		4.4.1 Current Limitations and Improvement Options for ENSO
	4.5 Conclusions
	References
Chapter 5: The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Seasonal Flooding in Bangladesh
	5.1 Introduction
	5.2 Data and Basic Indices
	5.3 ENSO and Atmospheric Circulation Pattern
	5.4 Physical Mechanism for SST—Monsoon Links
	5.5 ENSO—Rainfall Relation in the Greater GBM Basins
		5.5.1 ENSO—Rainfall: Bangladesh
		5.5.2 ENSO—Rainfall: Basinwide
	5.6 ENSO and Features of River Hydrograph
	5.7 ENSO—Seasonal Flooding Extent in Bangladesh
	5.8 Comparison with Other Previous Findings of Monsoon Rainfall Variability in Bangladesh and India
	5.9 Summaries and Conclusion
	References
Chapter 6: Overview of Eastern, Mixed, and Central Pacific El Niño
	6.1 Introduction
	6.2 Impacts of Different Types of El Niño on the Seasonal Rainfall and Sea Level Variability in the USAPIs: An Example of Future ENSO Research Potential for Bangladesh
		6.2.1 Seasonal Rainfall Variability
		6.2.2 Seasonal Sea Level Variability
	6.3 Conclusions
	References
Chapter 7: Seasonal Flood Potential in Bangladesh
	7.1 Introduction
	7.2 Data, Basic Indices, and Method
		7.2.1 Observed Climate Fields of SST and Atmospheric Circulation Data
		7.2.2 Global Climate Model (GCM) Precipitation Data from SST
		7.2.3 Method: SST Indices—Five Wettest/Driest Years
	7.3 Results: Variability and Predictability from the Tropical SST
		7.3.1 Leading Principal Components (PCs) and SST Structure
		7.3.2 Statistical Model
	7.4 Results: Variability and Predictability from the GCM Precipitation
		7.4.1 Leading Principal Components (PCs) and Precipitation Structure
		7.4.2 Statistical Model
	7.5 Summary of Findings
	7.6 Conclusions
	Appendix: ECHAM4
	References
Chapter 8: Seasonal Sea Level Information and Flood Forecast Potential in Bangladesh
	8.1 Introduction
	8.2 Data and Research Methodology
		8.2.1 Sea Level Data
		8.2.2 Observed Climate Fields of SST and Atmospheric Circulation Data
		8.2.3 Methodology
	8.3 Results and Discussions
		8.3.1 Linear Correlation of Seasonal Averages of SSTs and Sea Level
		8.3.2 EOF Analysis of SST and Sea Level Records
		8.3.3 CCA Model Forecast and Hindcast Skill
	8.4 A Synopsis of Enhanced Trade Winds
	8.5 Conclusions
	Appendix: Research Flow
	References
Chapter 9: Consensus Seasonal Flood Forecasts and Warning Response in Bangladesh
	9.1 Introduction
	9.2 Conceptual Perspectives
	9.3 Progress in Seasonal FFWRS
	9.4 Consensus Seasonal Forecast in the USAPIs: The PEAC Model
		9.4.1 Forecast Preparation
		9.4.2 Interpretation and Stakeholders
		9.4.3 Process of Dissemination
		9.4.4 Response and Feedback
		9.4.5 Review and Analysis
	9.5 The SASCOF Regional Model
	9.6 The SARCOF Regional Model
	9.7 Seasonal Forecasts: Bangladesh Perspective
		9.7.1 Stage 1: Forecast Preparation
		9.7.2 Stage 2: Interpretation and Stakeholders
		9.7.3 Stage 3: Process of Dissemination
		9.7.4 Stage 4: Response
		9.7.5 Stage 5: Review and Analysis
	9.8 Conclusions
	Appendix: Criteria-Development Matrix
	References
Chapter 10: ENSO Impacts, Applications, and Conclusions
	10.1 An Overview of ENSO Impacts in Bangladesh
		10.1.1 ENSO and Variability of Tropical Cyclone
		10.1.2 ENSO and King Tides
		10.1.3 ENSO and Forest Fires
		10.1.4 ENSO and Human Health in Bangladesh
		10.1.5 ENSO and Water and Power Crisis
		10.1.6 ENSO and Variability of Lightning
		10.1.7 ENSO and Probability of New Civil Conflicts
	10.2 ENSO Applications and Opportunities in Bangladesh
		10.2.1 Seasonal Flood Forecasts and Warning Response Opportunity
		10.2.2 Total Weather Insurance for Agriculture Risk Reduction
	10.3 Conclusions
	References