Risk and the Theory of Security Risk Assessment (Advanced Sciences and Technologies for Security Applications)

Foreword
Preface
Acknowledgments
Introduction
Contents
About the Author
Part I: Security Risk Assessment Fundamentals
	Chapter 1: Definitions and Basic Concepts
		1.1 Introduction to Risk and Risk-Relevance
		1.2 Threat Scenarios and the Components of Risk
		1.3 The Risk Meter
		1.4 Introduction to Risk Factors
		1.5 Threat Incidents and Risk Factor-Related Incidents
		1.6 Probability v. Potential
		1.7 The Fundamental Expression of Security Risk
		1.8 Absolute, Relative and Residual Security Risk
		1.9 Summary
	Chapter 2: Risk Factors
		2.1 Introduction
		2.2 Definitions and Examples
		2.3 Apex Risk Factors
		2.4 Spatial Risk Factors
		2.5 Temporal Risk Factors
		2.6 Behavioral Risk Factors
		2.7 Complexity Risk Factors
		2.8 Inter-related Risk Factors
		2.9 Risk Factor Scale and Stability
		2.10 Summary
	Chapter 3: Threat Scenarios
		3.1 Introduction
		3.2 Static Threat Scenarios
		3.3 Dynamic Threat Scenarios
		3.4 Behavioral Threat Scenarios
		3.5 Complex Threat Scenarios
		3.6 Random Threat Scenarios
		3.7 Maximum Threat Scenario Risk
		3.8 General Threat Scenario Phenomena
		3.9 A Security Risk Assessment Taxonomy
		3.10 Summary
	Chapter 4: Risk, In-Depth
		4.1 Introduction
		4.2 Threat Scenario Equivalence and Risk Universality
		4.3 Direct and Indirect Assessments of Likelihood
		4.4 Sources of Uncertainty in Estimating Likelihood
		4.5 Time and Risk
		4.6 Risk-Relevance
		4.7 The Confluence of Likelihood Risk Factors
		4.8 Summary
Part II: Quantitative Concepts and Methods
	Chapter 5: The (Bare) Essentials of Probability and Statistics
		5.1 Introduction
		5.2 Probability
		5.3 Average, Standard Deviation, Variance and Correlation
		5.4 The Normal and Standard Normal Distributions
		5.5 The Z-Statistic
		5.6 Statistical Confidence and the p-value
		5.7 The Poisson Distribution
		5.8 Value-at-Risk
		5.9 Summary
	Chapter 6: Identifying and/or Quantifying Risk-Relevance
		6.1 Introduction
		6.2 Linearity, Non-linearity and Scale
		6.3 Density
		6.4 Trends and Time Series
		6.5 Histograms
		6.6 Derivatives and Integrals
		6.7 Correlation and Correlation Coefficients Revisited
		6.8 Exponential Growth, Decay and Half-Value
		6.9 Time and Frequency Domain Measurements
		6.10 Summary
	Chapter 7: Risk Factor Measurements
		7.1 Introduction
		7.2 Spatial Risk Factor Measurements
		7.3 Temporal Risk Factor Measurements
		7.4 Behavioral Risk Factor Measurements
		7.5 Multiple Risk Factors and Uncertainty in Security Risk Management
		7.6 Summary
	Chapter 8: Elementary Stochastic Methods and Security Risk
		8.1 Introduction
		8.2 Probability Distributions and Uncertainty
		8.3 Indicative Probability Calculations
		8.4 The Random Walk
		8.5 The Probability of Protection
		8.6 The Markov Process
		8.7 Time-Correlation Functions and Threat Scenario Stability,
		8.8 The Convergence of Probability and Potential
		8.9 Summary
Part III: Security Risk Assessment and Management
	Chapter 9: Threat Scenario Complexity
		9.1 Introduction to Complexity
		9.2 Background
		9.3 Complexity Combinatorics
		9.4 Information Entropy
		9.5 Estimates of Threat Scenario Complexity
		9.6 Complexity Metrics
		9.7 Temporal Limits on Complexity
		9.8 Managing Threat Scenario Complexity
		9.9 Summary
	Chapter 10: Systemic Security Risk
		10.1 Introduction
		10.2 The Risk-Relevance of Assets and Time
		10.3 Spatial Distribution of Risk Factors: Concentration and Proliferation
			10.3.1 Concentration
			10.3.2 Proliferation
		10.4 Temporal History of Risk Factors: Persistence, Transience and Trending
			10.4.1 Persistence
			10.4.2 Transience
			10.4.3 Trending
		10.5 Summary
	Chapter 11: General Theoretical Results
		11.1 Introduction
		11.2 Core Principles
		11.3 Random Threat Scenario Results
		11.4 Static and Dynamic Threat Scenario Results
		11.5 Complex Threat Scenario Results
		11.6 Summary
	Chapter 12: The Theory, in Practice
		12.1 Introduction
		12.2 The Security Risk Management Process
		12.3 Applying the Theory (1): Information Security Threat Scenarios
		12.4 Applying the Theory (2): Password Cracking
		12.5 A Revised Fundamental Expression of Security Risk
		12.6 Testing for Encryption
		12.7 The Security Control/Risk Factor Ratio (C/R)
		12.8 Cost and Constraints in Security Risk Management
		12.9 Low Likelihood-High Impact Threat Scenarios
		12.10 Summary
Epilogue
Appendices
	Appendix 1: Random Walk Mean and Variance
	Appendix 2: Time and Ensemble Averages
	Appendix 3: Theory of Security Risk Assessment Summary Table