Presidential Impeachment and the New Political Instability in Latin America

Cover......Page 1
Half-title......Page 3
Series-title......Page 5
Title......Page 7
Copyright......Page 8
Dedication......Page 9
Contents......Page 11
Tables and Figures......Page 13
Preface and Acknowledgments......Page 15
1 Institutional Crises in Presidential Regimes......Page 19
Impeachment as a Theoretical Puzzle......Page 22
Impeachment as an Institutional Outcome......Page 24
About This Book......Page 28
2 Five Cases of Impeachment and a Presumed Madman......Page 32
Brazil, 1992......Page 33
Venezuela, 1993......Page 36
Colombia, 1996......Page 40
Ecuador, 1997......Page 42
Paraguay, 1999......Page 47
Paraguay, 2002......Page 50
Fernando Collor’s Specter......Page 53
3 Presidential Crises and the Decline of Military Intervention......Page 58
Democratization and the Decline of Military Intervention......Page 59
Presidential Crises......Page 62
The Political Consequences of Presidential Crises......Page 65
Regime Disruptions and “Short-Term” Breakdowns......Page 66
Long-Term Breakdown......Page 73
Presidential Crises without Breakdown......Page 75
Presidential Crises and the New Politics of Impeachment......Page 78
4 Latin America in the Age of Scandal......Page 82
The Age of Scandal?......Page 83
Political Factors: Democratization......Page 87
Economic Factors: Deregulating News......Page 89
Technological Factors: The Expansion of Television......Page 92
Professional Factors: Careers in Journalism......Page 96
The New Press in Perspective......Page 100
Media Incentives and the Politics of Scandal......Page 102
5 Scandals and the Political Economy of Popular Outrage......Page 105
Scandals and the Economics of Presidential Approval......Page 106
Economic Reforms......Page 108
Scandals, Voter Subjectivity, and the Feeding Frenzy......Page 109
Case Studies......Page 111
Angry Left, Perplexed Right......Page 113
Perez’s Great Turnaround......Page 117
Surviving without Governing......Page 122
In Just One Shot......Page 124
The Paraguayan Saga......Page 127
Understanding Public Outrage......Page 132
Multivariate Analysis......Page 133
Feeding Frenzy?......Page 137
Conclusions......Page 141
6 Building a Legislative Shield: The Institutional Determinants of Impeachment......Page 150
Impeachment......Page 151
Declaration of Incapacity......Page 155
Rethinking the Role of Congress: Legislators as Veto Players......Page 157
A Model of Legislative Impeachment......Page 161
Rethinking the Role of the Executive: Nurturing Friendly Veto Players......Page 165
Isolation: Brazil, 1990–1992......Page 167
Confrontation: Ecuador, 1996–1997......Page 170
Isolation: Venezuela, 1989–1993......Page 174
Negotiation: Colombia, 1994–1998......Page 176
From Isolation to Confrontation: Paraguay, 1998–1999......Page 179
Negotiation: Paraguay, 1999–2003......Page 182
Summary......Page 185
Presidents, Legislators, and the Political Environment......Page 187
Predicting the Strength of the Legislative Shield......Page 189
7 Toward a New Pattern of Political Instability......Page 194
Argentina, 2001......Page 195
The Rise and Fall of Rodrıguez Saa......Page 198
Other Episodes......Page 200
The New Pattern of Instability......Page 203
Demilitarization......Page 204
Social Movements and Popular Protest......Page 205
Watchdog Politics......Page 206
The New Role of Congress......Page 207
Qualitative Comparative Analysis......Page 208
Quantitative Evidence......Page 215
The Political Consequences of Crises without Breakdown......Page 219
8 Rethinking Latin American Presidentialism......Page 221
Stable Presidentialism with Unstable Presidents......Page 222
Horizontal Accountability with Recurring Abuse of Power......Page 224
Popular Empowerment with Limited Democratization......Page 228
References......Page 233
Index......Page 253