PERSPECTIVES ON GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT 2021 : from protest to progress?.

Foreword
Acknowledgements
Editorial
Executive summary
Overview
	Discontent in an era of global economic growth
	The case for global discontent
	The structural causes and politics of discontent
	From protest to participation
	Global governance and discontent
1 Discontent in an era of growth
	Introduction
	The world pre-COVID-19: The best of times?
		Extreme poverty has declined, but not everyone is satisfied
		Middle classes have emerged globally but their prospects are uncertain
	Gains in income and wealth have not been equally shared
		Large income inequalities are emerging within countries
		China accounts for the majority of the decline in between-country inequality
	Not all well-being indicators have kept pace with income growth
	The global labour force is increasingly atomised and polarised
		Labour is under pressure from all sides
		Informality, insecurity and working poverty are widespread
	Humanity has brought environmental catastrophe upon itself
		Carbon emissions and environmental inequality
	Conclusion
	Notes
	References
2 The case for global discontent
	Introduction
	Making the case for discontent
		Civil unrest is on the rise
		Voter turnout has experienced a long-term decline
		Confidence in democracy is on the wane
		Trust in public institutions is falling
	Subjective indicators and contingent causes of discontent
		The economy is people’s most pressing concern
		Public services are a source of dissatisfaction
		Many citizens do not feel heard
	Conclusion
	References
3 The structural causes and politics of discontent
	Introduction
	The complexities of inequality and discontent
		Which inequality matters?
		Relative deprivation holds the key
		What role for absolute deprivation?
	The sociological factors behind discontent
		Social networks and civic engagement are diminishing
		Interpersonal trust has declined and stress levels have risen
		Culture wars are emerging
	The politics of discontent
		Economic changes are contributing to a fragmentation of political identities
		Winner takes all: The political consequences of inequality
		A road to populism
		COVID-19: A cause of further discontent or an opportunity to reset?
	Digital technology and discontent
		The digital divide reinforces inequalities
		Atomisation and polarisation in virtual networks
		New media power dynamics
	Conclusion
	References
4 From protest to participation
	Introduction
	The social drivers of development
		The simultaneous evolution of culture and institutions
		Social capital and the dynamics of social cohesion
		Introducing a stylised model of the economy, state and civil society
	Harnessing society’s power to escape the development traps
		The productivity trap: Linking traditional and modern firms in industrial districts
		The institutional trap: Improving tax morale and making schools work
		The social vulnerability trap: The case for universal social protection
	The political red line
	A new logic for national strategies
	What is stopping us?
		Public finances will need to be rebuilt after the pandemic
		Navigating presumed trade-offs between resilience, efficiency and innovation
		Inequality jeopardises participatory processes
	Conclusion
	References
5 Global governance in an era of discontent
	Introduction
	Discontent from abroad
		The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the weakness and imbalances of global systems
		Globalisation: Discord and other externalities
	The chequered history of multilateralism
		Early years of multilateralism
		Decolonisation: The Global South as emerging but excluded force on the world stage
		Washington Consensus
		Shifting wealth
		The crisis era (working title)
	Who runs the world?
		The new governors
		Locking in market primacy
	New visions for multilateralism
		Rebalancing international power
		New visions of multilateralism
		Problem-solving will not solve our problems
	Conclusion
	References