OECD Employment Outlook: June 2001 (OCED employment outlook)

Table of Contents
Editorial: Reconciling social and employment goals
Chapter 1.  Recent Labour Market Developments and Prospects
	Summary
	Introduction
	I. Recent developments and prospects
		A. Economic outlook to the year 2002
			Table 1.1. Growth of real GDP in OECD countries
		B. Employment and unemployment
		C. Compensation and labour costs
		D. The unemployment-vacancy relation: a Beveridge curve analysis
			Evidence of a skilled-worker shortage?
				Table 1.2. Employment and labour force growth in OECD countries
			Evidence of structural change?
				Table 1.3. Unemployment in OECD countries
				Table 1.4. Business sector labour costs in OECD countries
				Box 1.1. Beveridge curves
				Chart 1.1. Job vacanciesa and unemployment
	II. Labour market policies: how the money has been spent
		A. Introduction
		B. How did labour market expenditure vary between1985 and1998?
			Box 1.2. Main features of the OECD LMP database
			Chart 1.2. OECD spending on active/passive measures, 1985-1998
			Table 1.5. Spending on labour market programmes, 1985, 1989, 1993 and 1998
			Chart 1.3. Active/passive spending and unemployment rates, 1985-1998
		C. How did the pattern of spending on active measures change?
			Chart 1.4. Composition of active spending in the OECD area, 1985-1998
			Chart 1.5. Composition of active spending in OECD regions, 1998
		D. New developments in policies and measuring instruments
			Chart 1.6. OECD participant inflows into ALMPs, 1985-1998
			Box 1.3. New measuring instruments for labour market programmes
	Conclusions
	Notes
	Annex 1.A. Country groupings and estimations
		Table 1.A.1. Regional groupings: expenditure data
		Table 1.A.2. Country groupings: participant inflows
	Bibliography
Chapter 2.  When Money is Tight: Poverty Dynamics in OECD Countries
	Summary
	Introduction
	Main findings
	I. Overview of the issues and empirical approach
		A. Issues to be addressed
		B. Measuring poverty and its dynamics
			Box 2.1. Relative versus absolute poverty measures
		C. Data sources
	II. Poverty dynamics over three years
		A. Poverty incidence over three years
			Cross-sectional poverty rates: the baseline
				Chart 2.1. Alternative single-year poverty measures, average values for 1993-1995
				Table 2.1. Alternative poverty rates, 1993-1995
			Multi-year measures of poverty incidence
			Chart 2.2. Alternative multi-year poverty rates, 1993-1995
			Box 2.2. Child poverty
				Chart: Child versus adult poverty over three years
		B. Short-run dynamics
			Entry and exit rates
				Chart 2.3. Poverty duration and 3-year average income of persons ever poor, 1993-1995
				Table 2.2. Gross rates of entry and exit and average duration of poverty, 1993-1995
			Total years in poverty and permanent-incomes of persons ever poor
				Table 2.3. Distribution of poverty duration and permanent income for persons ever poor, 1993-1995
		C. Factors associated with short-run poverty dynamics
			Poverty experience by household and work characteristics
				Chart 2.4. Relative risks of short and long-term poverty for different population groups, 1993-1995
				Chart 2.5. Relative risks of short and long-term poverty by family type, 1993-1995
				Chart 2.6. Relative risks of short and long-term poverty by educational attainment of head, 1993-1995
				Chart 2.7. Overlap between poverty and employment among working-age households, 1993-1995
			Events coincident with poverty entry and exit
				Table 2.4. Frequency of family-related events associated with poverty transitions, 1993-1995
				Table 2.5. Frequency of job-related events associated with poverty transitions
				Table 2.6. Frequency of family and job-related events associated with poverty transitions
			Correlates of cross-country differences in poverty
				Table 2.7. Correlations of national measures of poverty with measures of the economic, demographic and institutional context
			Econometric models
	III. Poverty dynamics over longer periods
		A. Data
			Table 2.8. Estimated impact on poverty persistence over three years of individual and family characteristics and country of residencea (ECHP countries only)
		B. Poverty incidence and duration
			Table 2.9. Alternative poverty rates in the longer panels: Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States
			Table 2.10. Gross rates of entry and exit and average duration of poverty: Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States
			Table 2.11. Poverty spell durations for persons ever poor: Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States
		C. Long-term poverty transitions and repeat spells
		D. Econometric models of expected duration and permanent-income poverty
			Table 2.12. Repeat poverty spells and permanent exits: Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States
			Table 2.13. Distribution of continuous spells and total time in poverty: Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States
			Table 2.14. Poverty rates and time in poverty by work and family characteristics
			Table 2.15a. Estimated effects of individual and family characteristics on total time in poverty and the probability of permanent-income poverty: Canada, 1993-1998
			Table 2.15b. Estimated effects of individual and family characteristics on total time in poverty and the probability of permanent-income poverty: Germany, 1990-1997
			Table 2.15c. Estimated effects of individual and family characteristics on total time in poverty and the probability of permanent-income poverty: United Kingdom,a 1990-1997
			Table 2.15d. Estimated effects of individual and family characteristics on total time in poverty and the probability of permanent-income poverty: United States, 1985-1992
	Conclusions
	Notes
	Annex 2.A.  External validation of poverty estimates from the ECHP data
		Table 2.A.1. Alternative annual poverty rate estimates for the ECHP country sample
	Annex 2.B.  Robustness of poverty estimates across alternative equivalence scales and income thresholds
		Table 2.B.1. Robustness of poverty estimates across different equivalence scales and income thresholds, 1993-1995
	Annex 2.C.  Characteristics of the non-poor, 1-year poor and 3-year poor: detailed table
		Table 2.C.1. Characteristics of the non-poor, shorter-term poor and longer-term poor, 1993-1995
	Bibliography
Chapter 3. The Characteristics and Quality of Service Sector Jobs
	Summary
	Introduction
	Main findings
	I. Part-time work, temporary work, job tenure and training
		A. Sectoral classification
		B. Incidence of part-time and temporary work
			Chart 3.1. Various job characteristics by broad sector, OECD average
		C. Job tenure
		D. Training
		E. Accounting for country differences in job characteristics
			Table 3.1. Correlates of sectoral and country differences in various job characteristics, 1998
			Chart 3.2. Accounting for differences across countries in various job characteristics
		F. Changes over time in part-time, temporary work and job tenure
	II. Working conditions and job satisfaction
		A. Working conditions
			Chart 3.3. Accounting for changes over time in various job characteristics
			Box 3.1. Measuring working conditions
			Table 3.2. Working conditions in Europe by broad sector, 1995/96
			Chart 3.4. Working conditions in Europe by sector, 1995
			Table 3.3. Averages across a range of working conditions in Europe by sector, 1995/96
		B. Job satisfaction
			Table 3.4. Job satisfaction in Europe by sector, 1994-1996
			Table 3.5. Job satisfaction by sector, controlling for job and worker characteristics
	III. Pay levels as a measure of job quality
		Box 3.2. Comparing earnings differentials across countries
		A. Overall earnings differentials across sectors
		B. The distribution of jobs by broad wage levels
			Table 3.6. Earnings differentials by sector of employment
		C. Employment rates by wage level
			Table 3.7. Sectoral distribution of jobs by wage level in the European Union and in the United States, 1999
		D. Employment growth by wage level
			Table 3.8. The US-EU employment rate gap by wage level and sector, 1999
			Chart 3.5. Employment rate gap between the United States and other OECD countries by wage level, 1999
			Chart 3.6. Employment trends in the US by wage level, 1989-1999
	Conclusions
		Chart 3.7. Employment growth by wage level in OECD countries, 1993-1999
	Notes
	Annex 3.A.  Sectoral classification
		Table 3.A.1. Definition of sectors used in analysis of part-time and temporary employment, job tenure and training
	Annex 3.B.  Job characteristics by sector and country: detailed tables
		Table 3.B.1. Relative importance of part-time employment by sector, 1999
		Table 3.B.2. Relative importance of temporary employment by sector, 1999
		Table 3.B.3. Sectoral differences in average job tenure, 1999
		Table 3.B.4. Relative importance of continuing vocational training by sector, 1997
	Annex 3.C.  Employment by wage level: sources, methods and supplementary tables
		Methodology
		Sources and definitions
		Table 3.C.1. Employment shares by wage level in the European Union, 1999
		Table 3.C.2. Location of jobs by wage level in the European Union, 1995
		Table 3.C.3. Employment share by wage level in the United States, 1999
		Table 3.C.4. Employment rate gap between the United States and other OECD countries by wage level and sector, 1999
	Bibliography
Chapter 4.  Balancing Work and Family Life: Helping Parents into Paid Employment
	Summary
	Introduction
	Main findings
		Box 4.1. Trends in fertility and trends in employment
			Chart 4.1. Trends in employment and trends in fertility, selected OECD countries
	I. Parental employment patterns
		A. Trends in paid employment
			Table 4.1. Employment rates in familiesa with child(ren) aged under 6, 1989 and 1999
			Table 4.2. Trends in employment patterns in key family types, all education levels
			Table 4.3. Actual and preferred employment patterns by full-time and part-time working
		B. Relative earnings of mothers
		C. Child-care and unpaid work time of women and men
			Table 4.4. Average hours worked and preferred hours, according to perceived financial situation of household, EU and Norway, 1998
			Chart 4.2. Gender wage gaps
			Table 4.5. Time spent on child care and unpaid work by women and men in couple families with a child under 5
	II. Tax-benefit policies
		Box 4.2. The impact of different taxation systems on work incentives in couple families
		Table 4.6. Developments in personal income tax systems, 1970-1999, and relative incomes of two-earner couples with different employment patterns, 1997
	III. Work/family reconciliation policies
		A. Child-care arrangements
			Table 4.7. Summary indicators of formal child-care coverage and maternity leave
		B. Maternity, paternity, parental and child-care leave
		C. The choice between child-care, child-care leave and parental care for children
	IV. Firms’ contribution to the reconciliation between work and family life
		A. Defining family-friendly arrangements by firms
		B. Family-friendly arrangements in firms in Australia, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United S...
		C. Family-friendly arrangements in firms in the European Union
			Table 4.8. Indicators of family-friendly and relevant flexible working arrangements in enterprises, 1995-1996
			Chart 4.3. Extra-statutory employer-provided family-friendly practices, European Union, 1995/96
		D. Firms’ voluntary provision of maternity leave and national legislation
			Chart 4.4. Comparison of indicators of firms’ provision of extra-statutory maternity leave and national provisions, EU, 1995/96
	V. Summary of the international patterns
		Table 4.9. Summary indicators of work/family reconciliation policies and relevant flexible work arrangements
	Conclusions
	Notes
	Annex 4.A.  Supplementary table
		Table 4.A.1. Changes in family types
	Annex 4.B.  Data sources
		Data from time budget surveys
		Data on family-friendly arrangements in firms
			General considerations
			Survey data for Australia, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States
			The Second European Survey on Working Conditions
			Questions on family-friendly arrangements
		Data on relevant flexible working arrangements
	Bibliography
Chapter 5.  The Employment of Foreigners: Outlook and Issues in OECD Countries
	Summary
	Introduction
	Main findings
	I. Immigration, population and employment in OECD countries
		A. Immigration and population growth
			Box 5.1. Migration statistics
			Table 5.1. Foreign or foreign-born population and labour force in selected OECD countries
		B. Immigrants and the labour market
			General trends linked to the employment of foreigners
			Sectoral distribution and employment status of foreigners
				Table 5.2. Entries of temporary workers in selected OECD countries by principal categories, 1992, 1996-1998
				Table 5.3. Participation rate and unemployment rate of nationals and foreigners by sex in selected OECD countries, 1998
				Table 5.4. Foreign employment by economic activity in OECD countries
				Box 5.2. Where do undocumented immigrants work?
	II. Foreign employment and short-term labour market equilibrium
		Table 5.5. Employment distribution by type of occupation
		Table 5.6. Disparity of the foreign employment distribution by economic activity
		Table 5.7. Employment status by nationality, 1999
		Chart 5.1. Share of foreigners in total unemployment relative to their share in the labour force
		A. Foreign workers in periods of recession
			Chart 5.2. Net migration rate and the business cycle in selected OECD countries, 1960-1995
			Table 5.8. Foreign and national adult populations classified by level of education in selected OECD countries
			Table 5.9. Share of foreigners in total unemployment relative to their share in the labour force during a recessionary period
			Chart 5.3. Percentage of long-term unemployment by nationality
			Chart 5.4. Foreign population and the unemployment rate in some OECD countries, 1998
		B. The employment of foreigners during economic upturns
			Chart 5.5. Changes in foreign and total employment during economic recoveries
	III. Foreign employment and long-term labour market equilibrium
		Chart 5.6. Growth of foreign and total employment by economic activity between 1994-1995 and 1998-1999
		Table 5.10. Intra-European mobility of EU citizens, 1997
		A. Immigration and demographic ageing
		B. Immigration and human capital
			Table 5.11. H 1B visas: limits and visas issued (excluding dependants)
	Notes
	Annex 5.A.  Immigration and variation of the labour demand
		Table 5.A.1. Estimation of the Granger causality between net immigration and the variation of the labour demand in some OECD countries
	Annex 5.B.  Probability to be inactive and probability to be employed in some European countries
		Table 5.B.1. Estimation of the probability to be inactive in some European countries (PROBIT)
		Table 5.B.2. Estimation of the probability to be employed in some European countries (PROBIT)
	Annex 5.C.  Immigration and unemployment
		Table 5.C.1. Review of the main studies concerning immigration and unemployment
	Annex 5.D.  Skilled foreign workers
		Table 5.D.1. Eligibility criteria for recruitment and residence of skilled foreign workers in some OECD countries
	Bibliography
Statistical Annex
	Sources and definitions
	Table A. Standardized unemployment rates in 25 OECD countries
	Tables B. Employment/population ratios, activity rates and unemployment rates by sex for persons aged 15-64 years
	Tables C. Unemployment, labour force participation rates and employment/population ratios by age and sex
	Tables D. Unemployment, labour force participation rates and employment/population ratios by educational attainment for persons aged 25-64, 1999
	Table E. Incidence and composition of part-time employment, 1990-2000
	Table F. Average annual hours actually worked per person in employment
	Table G. Incidence of long-term unemployment
	Table H. Public expenditure and participant inflows in labour market programmes in OECD countries