Nuclear Non-proliferation and Arms Control Verification: Innovative Systems Concepts

Foreword
Acknowledgements
Contents
Contributors
Systems Concepts: Structuring a New Verification Approach
	1 Introduction
	2 A Systematic Approach
	3 Nuclear Weapons Complex
	4 The Regime Today
	5 More Pieces of the Puzzle
	6 Innovative Systems Concepts for Nuclear Nonproliferation and Arms Control Verification
	References
Part I Status of Verification Strategies
	History, Status and Challenges for Non-proliferation and Arms Control Verification
		1 On Verification
		2 On Verification and Confidence-Building
		3 On Verification Provisions
		4 Verification in the Nuclear Field: The Role of Technology and Technological Expertise
		5 Current Status of Verification Technologies in Arms Control Verification
		6 Information Barriers: Attributes and Templates
		7 Fixed and Potentially Movable Constraints
		8 The Continuing Importance of Progress
		References
	The Evolution of Safeguards
		1 Background
		2 Early Strengthening Measures
		3 State Evaluation
		4 Integrated Safeguards
		5 Furthering the Development of the State-Level Concept
		6 The State-Level Concept
			6.1 Establishment of Safeguards Objectives
				Acquisition/Diversion Path Analysis to Establish Technical Objectives
			6.2 Development of a State-Level Safeguards Approach
				Applicable Safeguards Measures
				Annual Implementation Plan
			6.3 State-Specific Factors
			6.4 Strengthening the State Evaluation Process
			6.5 Drawing Safeguards Conclusions
		7 Conclusions
		References
Part II Factors Influencing the Development of a Systems Concept for Verification
	Legal Issues Relating to Risk and Systems Driven Verification
		1 Introduction
		2 Future Verification Missions
		3 Verification Objectives
		4 Some Key Legal Considerations
			4.1 Non-compliance: Standard of Proof
			4.2 Obligation to Cooperate
			4.3 Non-discrimination
			4.4 Use of and Access to Information
			4.5 Verification Tools: Inspections and Monitoring
			4.6 Dispute Resolution
			4.7 Treaty Structure
		5 Conclusions
		References
	Verification: The Politics of the Unpolitical
		1 Introduction
		2 Lessons of History Forlorn
		3 Lessons of History Regained
		4 The Evolution of Safeguards
		5 Authority and Authenticity in International Verification
		6 Verification and Deterrence
		7 Reconciling International Politics and Verification
		8 Afterthoughts: The Crisis of Multilateralism
		References
	Military Dimensions
		1 Introduction
		2 Setting the Scene
			2.1 Growth of Nuclear Arsenals
			2.2 Fissile Materials and Technology Control
			2.3 De-escalation
			2.4 Proliferation Awareness
			2.5 Post-NPT Era (1970–1990)
			2.6 Post-Cold War Era (1990–2010)
			2.7 Current Context
		3 Military Dimensions of Nuclear Disarmament
			3.1 Existing Commitments
			3.2 A Brief Review of the Components of the Military Dimension
		4 Conclusions and Future Prospects
		References
	Strategic Export Control
		1 Historical Developments
			1.1 The Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT)
			1.2 The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG)
		2 Strategic Export Control and Nuclear Safeguards
		3 Addressing Non-nuclear Proliferation
			3.1 The International Export Control Regime
			3.2 Other Treaties and Agreements
		4 An International Legal Basis for Export Control: UNSCR 1540
		5 The Export Control Process
			5.1 Control Lists
			5.2 Other Control Lists
			5.3 Key Elements of the Export Control Process
		6 Conclusions and Relevance to Disarmament and Arms Control
		References
Part III Methods and Models
	NTI Nuclear Security Index: A Model for State-Level Approaches to Nonproliferation and Arms Control
		1 Introduction
		2 About the NTI Index: Goals and Methodology
			2.1 Goals of the NTI Index
			2.2 NTI Index Methodology
		3 Applying the NTI Index Methodology to the State-Level Concept
			3.1 Developing a Framework
			3.2 Research and Data Gathering
			3.3 Government Engagement and Outreach
			3.4 Operational Capacity
			3.5 Key Differences Between the NTI Index and the State-Level Concept
		4 Conclusions
		References
	Formalizing Acquisition Path Analysis
		1 Introduction
		2 The Game-Theoretical Model
			2.1 Extensive Form
			2.2 Normal Form
			2.3 Graph Representation
			2.4 Equilibrium Multiplicity
			2.5 Parameters
		3 A Case Study
		4 Discussion and Outlook
		References
	Metrics for Detecting Undeclared Materials and Activities
		1 Introduction
		2 Potential Clandestine Proliferation Paths
		3 Characteristics of the Data Available to the IAEA
			3.1 Safeguards Data
			3.2 Non-safeguards Data
		4 Development of Metrics for Detecting Undeclared Activities
		5 Conclusions
		References
	Game Theoretical Models for Arms Control and Disarmament Verification
		1 Introduction
		2 Unannounced Interim Inspections
			2.1 Game Theoretical Model
			2.2 Analysis
			2.3 Effective and Efficient Inspections
			2.4 Extensions
		3 Conclusions: The Art of Modeling
		References
	Societal Verification for Nuclear Nonproliferation and Arms Control
		1 Introduction
		2 Societal Mobilization
		3 Societal Observation
		4 Mobilization for Nuclear Nonproliferation and Arms Control Verification
		5 Observation for Nuclear Nonproliferation and Arms Control Verification
		6 Challenges and Considerations
		7 Conclusions
		References
Part IV Technologies
	Futures Research as an Opportunity for Innovation in Verification Technologies
		1 Introduction: Technology Foresight of Verification Techniques
		2 The Classic Technology-Foresight Approach
			2.1 Scanning and Monitoring
			2.2 Cross-Fertilization of Future Technologies
		3 ``Trend Archaeology\'\': Bibliometrics for Technology Foresight
			3.1 The Bibliometric Workflow
			3.2 The Potential of Bibliometrics for Technology Foresight
		4 Novel Technological Solutions
			4.1 Prediction of New Technological Trends with Text/Web Mining and Clustering
			4.2 Methodology
			4.3 Case Study
		5 Including Experts and Practitioners: Participatory Approaches
		6 Conclusions
		References
	Attribute Information Barriers
		1 Disarmament Verification
		2 Why an Information Barrier?
		3 Attribute Approach
			3.1 Attribute Definition Issues
			3.2 Measurement Issues
		4 How to Authenticate Nuclear Warheads?
		5 When the Light Is Red …
		References
	Minimally Intrusive Approaches to Nuclear Warhead Verification
		1 Background
		2 Confirming Numerical Limits on Declared Nuclear Warheads
		3 Confirming the Authenticity of Nuclear Warheads
		4 Conclusions
		References
	Advances in Seismic and Acoustic Monitoring
		1 Introduction
		2 Basics of Acoustics and Seismology
		3 Advances in Teleseismic Monitoring
		4 Advances in Infrasound Monitoring
		5 Research for Seismic Monitoring During CTBT On-Site Inspections
		6 Applications for Peace Keeping and Early Warning
		7 Research for Safeguards at Underground Final Repositories
		8 Conclusions
		References
	Radiation Detectors and Instrumentation
		1 Introduction
		2 Special Nuclear Material Signatures
			2.1 Uranium Signatures
			2.2 Plutonium Signatures
		3 Radiation Detection Monitoring and Verification Techniques
			3.1 Radiation Pulse Counting
			3.2 Spectroscopy
				Gamma Spectroscopy
				Alpha Spectroscopy
				Mass Spectrometry
			3.3 Neutron Detection
			3.4 Imaging Techniques
		4 RDE Implementation Challenges
			4.1 Arms Control Implementation Challenges
			4.2 General Implementation Challenges
		5 Conclusions
		References
	Environmental Signatures and Forensics
		1 ``Signatures\'\' as Source of Information
		2 Environmental Particle Signatures and Measurements
			2.1 New Instruments Opening New Avenues: The LG-SIMS
			2.2 Expanding the Set of Established Signatures in Bulk and Particle Samples
		3 Nuclear Forensic Signatures
			3.1 Radiochronometry
				Age Dating of Plutonium
				Age Dating of Uranium
			3.2 Isotope Correlation for Pu Reactor Type Determination
		4 Confidence in Results
		5 Synergies Between Safeguards, Non-proliferation and Nuclear Forensics
		6 Conclusions
		References
Part V Information Analysis
	Information Management: The Role of Information Technology in Treaty Verification
		1 Introduction
		2 Establishing the System Requirements
		3 Sources of Information
		4 Data Transmission
		5 Data Storage and Processing
		6 Verification System Information Processing
		7 Data Integrity
		8 Conclusions
		References
	Enhancing Verification with High-Performance Computing and Data Analytics
		1 Introduction
		2 Underlying Technologies: From High Performance Computing to Machine Learning
			2.1 High Performance and Data Intensive Computing
			2.2 Bringing the Data Together: Machine Learning and Multimodal Semantic Feature Spaces
		3 Possible Applications
		4 Next Steps
		References
	Open Source Analysis in Support to Non-proliferation: A Systems Thinking Perspective
		1 Introduction
		2 What Is Open Source Analysis?
		3 How Can Open Source Analysis Monitor an Engineering Programme?
			3.1 Defining the System to be Analyzed: A Systems Thinking Approach
			3.2 Hard Layers\' Observables
			3.3 Soft Layers\' Observables
			3.4 Taking the Context into Account
		4 Types of OS Analysis Scenarios for Nuclear Non-proliferation
			4.1 Puzzle Solving
			4.2 Data Foraging
			4.3 Model Building
			4.4 Mystery Framing
		5 Conclusions
		References
	Geospatial Information and Technologies for International Safeguards Verification
		1 Introduction
		2 Geospatial Information and Technologies for Nuclear Safeguards Analysis
			2.1 Additional Protocol
			2.2 Satellite Imagery
			2.3 Open Source Information
			2.4 Inspection Results
			2.5 GIS-Based Information Integration and Analysis
		3 Geospatial Information and Technologies for On-Site Inspections
			3.1 3D Laser Scanning
			3.2 Location-Based Services
		4 Challenges for Applying Geospatial Technologies to Nuclear Safeguards
			4.1 Information Security
			4.2 Legacy Infrastructure
			4.3 Safeguards Culture
			4.4 Operator Acceptance
		5 Conclusions
		References
	Remote Sensing Data Processing and Analysis Techniques for Nuclear Non-proliferation
		1 Introduction
		2 Data Sources
			2.1 Electro Optical Data
			2.2 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Data
		3 Data Storage Formats
		4 Pre-processing Remote Sensing Data
		5 Processing Remote Sensing Data
			5.1 Enhancements
			5.2 DEM Generation
			5.3 Classification
			5.4 Change Detection
		6 Conclusion
		References
	Commercial Satellite Imagery: An Evolving Tool in the Non-proliferation Verification and Monitoring Toolkit
		1 Introduction
		2 The Number of Satellites Is Rapidly Increasing, and Capabilities Are Improving
		3 Temporal Resolution Improvements: Observing Activity
		4 Spatial Resolution Improvements: Seeing Greater Detail
		5 Spectral Resolution Improvements: Seeing Beyond the Visible
		6 Improvements in Accessibility and Pricing
		7 Multi-Satellite/Multi-Sensor Data Fusion: Creating Innovation in Verification Applications
		8 Imagery Analysis Is Critical for Effective Use of Commercial Satellite Imagery
		9 Advances in 3D Modeling
		10 Conclusions
		References
	Strategic Trade Analysis for Non-proliferation
		1 Introduction
		2 Reference Lists of Strategic Items
		3 Data Sources for Trade Analysis
		4 Mapping Strategic Items to Trade Descriptors
		5 Use Cases for Strategic Trade Analysis
			5.1 Micro Views
			5.2 Macro Views
		6 Conclusions
		References
Part VI Applications
	A Systems Approach for Evaluating a Warhead Monitoring System
		1 Introduction
		2 Evaluation Methodology
			2.1 Evaluation Framework
			2.2 Monitoring Approach Specification
			2.3 Evaluation: Modeling and Simulations
		3 Warhead Monitoring Example
			3.1 Notional Treaty Provisions and Monitoring Approach
			3.2 Considerations When Applying the Evaluation Framework
			3.3 Quantitative Evaluation
		4 Conclusions
		References
	Physical Model and Acquisition Path Analysis: Applicability to Nuclear Disarmament Verification
		1 Introduction
			1.1 The Physical Model in IAEA Safeguards
			1.2 Use of the Physical Model in Acquisition Path Analysis
		2 Physical Model and Acquisition Path Analysis in Arms Control Verification
			2.1 Adapted Physical Model
			2.2 Pathways Analysis
		3 Physical Model and Acquisition Path Analysis in Arms Control Verification
		4 Application for Biological Weapons
		5 Conclusion
		References
	Investigating Development of Nuclear Arms Control Verification: Requirements at the State Level
		1 Introduction
		2 Applying Systems Level Analysis to Arms Control
		3 Exercise One
			3.1 State Strategic Security Objectives
			3.2 Verification Objectives
			3.3 Acquisition Pathways
			3.4 Pathway Attractiveness
			3.5 Detection Goals
			3.6 Verification Priorities
			3.7 Technical Verification Measures
		4 Exercise Two
		5 Lessons Learned
		Appendix: Fictitious States of Trenzalia and Azaria and Model Treaties
			Exercise One
			Exercise Two
		References