Map and territory

Preface
Introduction
Predictably Wrong
	Scope Insensitivity
	The Martial Art of Rationality
	Availability
	What\'s a Bias?
	Burdensome Details
	What Do I Mean By ``Rationality\"?
	Planning Fallacy
	Why Truth?
	Feeling Rational
	The Lens That Sees Its Own Flaws
Fake Beliefs
	Making Beliefs Pay Rent (in Anticipated Experiences)
	A Fable of Science and Politics
	Belief in Belief
	Religion\'s Claim to be Non-Disprovable
	Professing and Cheering
	Belief as Attire
	Pretending to be Wise
	Applause Lights
Noticing Confusion
	Focus Your Uncertainty
	What Is Evidence?
	Scientific Evidence, Legal Evidence, Rational Evidence
	How Much Evidence Does It Take?
	Einstein\'s Arrogance
	Occam\'s Razor
	Your Strength as a Rationalist
	Absence of Evidence Is Evidence of Absence
	Conservation of Expected Evidence
	Hindsight Devalues Science
	Illusion of Transparency: Why No One Understands You
	Expecting Short Inferential Distances
Mysterious Answers
	Fake Explanations
	Guessing the Teacher\'s Password
	Science as Attire
	Fake Causality
	Semantic Stopsigns
	Mysterious Answers to Mysterious Questions
	The Futility of Emergence
	Say Not ``Complexity\"
	Positive Bias: Look into the Dark
	Lawful Uncertainty
	My Wild and Reckless Youth
	Failing to Learn from History
	Making History Available
	Explain/Worship/Ignore?
	``Science\" as Curiosity-Stopper
	Truly Part of You
	Postlude: The Simple Truth
	Glossary
	Bibliography