Making Futures Work: Integrating Futures Thinking for Design, Innovation, and Strategy

Copyright
Table of Contents
Foreword
Preface
Chapter 1. A Fascination with the Future
	Survival of the Fittest
	Meteorology
	Mapping the Unknown
	Imagining the Future
	In Closing
Chapter 2. A Primer on Process and Approach
	Stage 0: Preparing for Futures Work
		Understanding Your Audience
		The Futures Mindset
		Framing the Problem
		Framing the Project
	Stage 1: Strategic Foresight
		Trends and Futures Intelligence
		Analyzing Trends
		Scenarios and Implications
	Stage 2: Designing Futures
		Types of Futures Design
		Designing the Ideation Workshop
	Stage 3: Designing Strategy
		Planning for Strategy
		Measuring Success
	Integrating and Advocating for Futures in an Organization
Stage 0. Preparing for Futures Work
	Chapter 3. Understanding Your Audience
		The Diagnostic
		Situational Awareness
			Why Does Your Audience Want to Look into the Future, and What Are Their Goals?
			What Kind of Project Will Futures Be Applied To?
			How Are They Doing Short- and Long-Term Strategies? And Who Is in Charge of That Function Today?
			What Has or Hasn’t Worked in the Past?
			How Much Do They Know About Futures Thinking?
			Who Are Your Potential Allies or Skeptics?
			What or Who Are the Potential Barriers or Threats to the Success of the Project?
			How Open Is the Organization to Change, Innovation, or Wild Ideas?
			What Are the Vocabulary and Artifacts They Are Using for Strategy Today?
			How Do They Think About the Future Today?
		Methods for Situational Awareness
			Sailboat Exercise
			SWOT
			Premortem
			Canvases
			Causal Layered Analysis
		In Closing
	Chapter 4. The Futures Mindset
		A Mindset and an Attitude
		Explain the Characteristics of a Futurist
		The Future Is Always VUCA
		The Futures Cone
		Analogies of a Journey
		Recognize and Embrace Fears and Failures
		The Futures Triangle
			The Weight of the Past
			The Pull of the Future
			The Push of the Present
		Show Relevant and Appropriate Examples
		In Closing
	Chapter 5. Framing the Problem
		Focusing Your Research
			The Focal Issue
			Time Horizon
			Geography/Region
			Stakeholders
			Demographics/Population Segment
		Domain Maps
		Problem Framing Canvases
		In Closing
	Chapter 6. Framing the Project
		Project Logistics
			Map Out the Project Timeline and Budget
			Plan Your Key Activities
			Secure Your Allies and Champions
			Align on the Deliverables
			Set Up Workspaces, Repositories, and Communication Preferences
			Determine Process Success Metrics
		Organizing Your Team
			Product or Project Manager
			Designers
			Strategists and Analysts
			Trend Researchers/Analysts
			Researchers
			Domain Experts
			Marketing and Communications
			Members Versus Collaborators Versus Allies
		In Closing
Stage 1. Strategic Foresight
	Chapter 7. Fundamentals of Foresight
		Strategic Foresight
		World Building
			Horizon Scanning
			Historical Analysis
			Bill Sharpe’s Three Horizons
			Futures Intelligence
			Using STEEP as a Multivariate Lens
			Trends, Drivers, and Signals
		Prioritizing Trends and Other Futures Intelligence
			Probability Versus Impact Matrix
		In Closing
	Chapter 8. World Building with Scenarios
		Scenario Formats
			Narratives
			Illustrated Images and Scenes
			Immersive and Interactive Experiences
		Jim Dator’s Scenario Archetypes
		The Axes of Uncertainty
		Future Personas
		Implication Mapping
		Sequencing Methods
		In Closing
Stage 2. Designing Futures
	Chapter 9. Designing Futures
		Speculative Design
		Types and Formats of Futures Design
			Critical Design
			Design Fiction
			Science Fiction Prototyping
		Speculative Design for Discourse and Strategy
			Using Speculative Design for Provocation, Discourse, Critique, or Debate
			Using Speculative Design for Strategy
		Prototyping the Future Today
		In Closing
	Chapter 10. Designing the Ideation Workshop
		Preparing for the Workshop
			Collect and Prepare Your Research Artifacts for Ideation
			Identify Who Will Be Participating and Prepare Them for the Session
			Design the Ideation Experience (Selecting the Methods)
		Ideation Methods
			Rapid Ideation
			Prompts
			Narrative-Based Prompts
			Headlines and Stories from the Future
			Immersive Experiences
		Using Illustrations for Future Visioning
		Using Generative AI Tools for Future Visioning
		In Closing
Stage 3. Designing Strategy
	Chapter 11. Strategy
		Preparing for Strategy
		Planning for the Activities
			Try to Use What Is Already in Place to Measure Success
			Determine Whether New Metrics Are Necessary
			Invite the Appropriate Stakeholders
			Choose the Frameworks or Methods You’ll Use for Planning
			Backcasting
		Long-Term, Medium-Term, and Short-Term Planning
			McKinsey’s Three Horizons
			Jump-Starting Innovation
		Measuring Success
			Innovation Accounting
			Indicator Monitoring
		Implementation and Delivery
		In Closing
	Chapter 12. Integrating Futures into Your Organization
		From the Inside
			You’ll Be the First to Introduce Futures to Your Team or Organization
			You’ve Established Some Support Within Your Group or Team and Want to Introduce Futures to Other Groups Within the Organization
			You’re Hired to Lead a Team or to Be Part of a Team That Is or Will Be Intentionally Practicing Futures
			A Strategic Function or Business Unit Already Exists That May or May Not Use Futures, and You Would Like to Collaborate or Introduce It to Them
		From the Outside
			You Are Hired Specifically to Use Futures on a Project
			You’re Hired to Train an Organization or Team
			An Organization Is Curious About Futures and Is Asking You to Introduce the Topic
		Where and Why Futures Succeeds or Fails
			How Futures Fail (Collapse Scenarios)
			How Futures Succeeds (Transformational Scenarios)
		In Closing
Afterword
Glossary
Index
About the Author