Inferential models : reasoning with uncertainty

Content: Preliminaries  Introduction  Assumed background  Scientific inference: An overview  Prediction and inference  Outline of the book         Prior-Free Probabilistic Inference  Introduction  Probabilistic inference  Existing approaches  On the role of probability in statistical inference  Our contribution in this book     Two Fundamental Principles  Introduction  Validity principle  Efficiency principle  Recap  On conditioning for improved efficiency         Inferential Models  Introduction  Basic overview  Inferential models  Theoretical validity of IMs  Theoretical optimality of IMs  Two more examples  Concluding remarks         Predictive Random Sets  Introduction  Random sets  Predictive random sets for constrained problems  Theoretical results on elastic predictive random sets  Two examples of the elastic belief method  Concluding remarks         Conditional Inferential Models  Introduction  Conditional IMs  Finding conditional associations  Three detailed examples  Local conditional IMs  Concluding remarks         Marginal Inferential Models  Introduction  Marginal inferential models  Examples  Marginal IMs for non-regular models  Concluding remarks         Normal Linear Models  Introduction  Linear regression  Linear mixed effect models  Concluding remarks         Prediction of Future Observations  Introduction  Inferential models for prediction  Examples and applications  Some further technical details  Concluding remarks         Simultaneous Inference on Multiple Assertions  Introduction  Preliminaries  Classification of assertions  Optimality for a collection of assertions  Optimal IMs for variable selection  Concluding remarks         Generalized Inferential Models  Introduction  Generalized associations  A generalized IM  A generalized marginal IM  Remarks on generalized IMs  Application: Large-scale multinomial inference         Future Research Topics  Introduction  New directions to explore  Our "top ten list" of open problems  Final remarks         Bibliography     Index        Exercises appear at the end of each chapter.