Ethnicity and Electoral Politics

Cover......Page 1
Half-title......Page 3
Title......Page 5
Copyright......Page 6
Dedication......Page 7
Contents......Page 9
TABLES......Page 11
FIGURES......Page 13
Acknowledgments......Page 15
1 Introduction......Page 19
THE ARGUMENT AND IMPLICATIONS......Page 25
METHODOLOGY AND ORGANIZATION OF THE BOOK......Page 34
2 Ethnic Attractors......Page 37
ETHNIC GROUP IDENTITY......Page 39
ETHNICITY IN THE LITERATURE......Page 43
ETHNIC ELECTORAL POLITICS......Page 50
Policy Proximity and Uncertainty in New Democracies......Page 51
Policy Enactment in Maturing Democracies......Page 55
CONCLUSION......Page 57
3 Ethnic Attractors and Exogenous Constraints......Page 59
INSTITUTIONS AND REPRESENTATION......Page 62
System Types, Electoral Rules, and Access......Page 63
Representation through Nonethnic Parties......Page 65
CONSTRAINING ETHNIC ATTRACTORS IN NEW DEMOCRACIES......Page 66
CONSTRAINING ETHNIC ATTRACTORS IN MATURING DEMOCRACIES......Page 68
Relaxing the Assumption of a Two-Party System......Page 71
CONCLUSION......Page 74
4 Ethnic Voting in Romania......Page 78
CASE SELECTION AND MEASUREMENT ISSUES......Page 80
Measuring Vote Stability......Page 81
Measuring Ethnicity......Page 84
ETHNIC DIVERSITY AND VOTE STABILITY IN ROMANIA......Page 85
The Vote for Ethnic Parties......Page 89
Other Testable Implications......Page 94
CONCLUSION......Page 95
5 Ethnic Voting and Party System Stability......Page 101
OTHER DETERMINANTS OF PARTY SYSTEM STABILITY......Page 106
Institutions......Page 107
The Economy......Page 111
History and Culture......Page 112
THE DATA AND METHOD......Page 114
VOTE STABILITY AND ETHNIC DIVERSITY IN NEW DEMOCRACIES......Page 116
The Controls......Page 118
VOTE STABILITY AND ETHNIC DIVERSITY OVER TIME......Page 120
Ethnicity over Time......Page 121
CONCLUSION......Page 129
6 Ethnic Politics and Access......Page 132
Representation......Page 134
The Cases......Page 135
LONG-TERM EFFECTS OF ETHNIC POLITICAL STABILITY......Page 136
The Hungarian Minority under Ceausescu......Page 137
The First Democratic Phase – Two Administrations Led by Iliescu......Page 139
The Second Democratic Phase – the CD Government......Page 142
The Fourth Administration – Moderate PSD Minority Cabinet......Page 144
The Fifth Administration – Moderate UDMR in a Governing Coalition......Page 147
The Turkish Minority and the Communist Regime......Page 148
The MRF in Democratic Politics......Page 150
The MRF as a Seasoned Political Party......Page 152
The Brand New “Natural” Ally of the MRF......Page 153
THE BASQUES AND THE CATALANS IN SPAIN......Page 154
Ethnic Repression and the Roots of Violence......Page 155
Ethnic Violence......Page 156
State Repression and Historical Accidents......Page 157
Spanish Democracy......Page 159
CONCLUSION......Page 163
7 The Ethnic Effect on Regime Stability......Page 166
ETHNIC GROUP REPRESENTATION AND VOTING OVER TIME......Page 170
FROM VOLATILITY TO VIOLENCE......Page 178
REASONABLE EXPECTATIONS OF ACCESS......Page 181
THE DATA AND METHOD......Page 186
The Dependent Variables: Antiregime Activity......Page 189
Violent Rebellion......Page 190
Ethnic Party Access to the Cabinet......Page 191
Access to the Cabinet through a Nonethnic Party......Page 193
Control Variables......Page 198
ACCESS AND ETHNIC VIOLENCE......Page 203
Predicted Probabilities......Page 209
Control Variables......Page 211
Nonmobilized Ethnic Groups and Electoral Institutions......Page 213
Other Controls for Mobilized Groups......Page 215
CONCLUSION......Page 216
8 Conclusions......Page 218
EMPIRICAL IMPLICATIONS FOR PLURAL SOCIETIES......Page 221
ADDITIONAL IMPLICATIONS AND THEORETICAL EXTENSIONS......Page 226
DEFINITIONS......Page 231
POLICY PROXIMITY AND VARIANCE......Page 233
REPRESENTATION......Page 234
VOTING CHOICES......Page 236
VOTING IN NEW DEMOCRACIES......Page 238
VOTING IN MATURING DEMOCRACIES......Page 239
TESTS OF VOTE STABILITY IN CHAPTERS FIVE AND SEVEN......Page 243
Volatility......Page 248
CHAPTER SEVEN......Page 249
Discrepancies in Records of Group Electoral Activity......Page 253
Large Groups......Page 259
Small Groups......Page 261
Ethnic versus Religious Groups......Page 262
References......Page 271
Index......Page 291