Decision Making in Systems Engineering and Management, 2nd Edition

Contents......Page 8
Foreword to the Second Edition......Page 18
Foreword to the First Edition......Page 20
Preface to the Second Edition......Page 22
Acknowledgments......Page 26
Thoughts for Instructors......Page 28
Contributors......Page 34
Acronyms......Page 42
1.1 Purpose......Page 46
1.3 Stakeholders......Page 48
1.4 System Life Cycle......Page 52
1.5 Systems Thinking......Page 55
1.6 Systems Engineering Thought Process......Page 57
1.7 Systems Engineering......Page 58
1.8 Engineering Management......Page 60
1.9 Systems Decision Process......Page 61
1.11 Exercises......Page 66
References......Page 68
PART I SYSTEMS THINKING......Page 70
2.1 Introduction......Page 72
2.2 Structure......Page 77
2.3 Classification......Page 78
2.4 Boundaries......Page 80
2.5 Visibility......Page 84
2.6 IDEF0 Models......Page 85
2.7 Mathematical Structure......Page 95
2.8 Spatial Arrangement......Page 99
2.10 Summary......Page 103
2.11 Exercises......Page 104
References......Page 108
3.1 Introduction......Page 110
3.2 System Life Cycle Model......Page 113
3.2.3 Design and Develop System......Page 115
3.2.4 Produce System......Page 116
3.2.6 Operate System......Page 117
3.2.7 Retire System......Page 118
3.3 Other Major System Life Cycle Models......Page 119
3.4 Risk Management in the System Life Cycle......Page 122
3.4.1 Risk Identification......Page 123
3.4.2 Risk Assessment......Page 128
3.4.3 Risk Mitigation......Page 133
3.5 Summary......Page 134
3.6 Exercises......Page 135
References......Page 137
4.1 Introduction......Page 140
4.2 Developing System Measures......Page 141
4.3 Modeling the System Design......Page 143
4.3.2 Why We Use Models......Page 144
4.3.3 Role of Models in Solution Design......Page 146
4.3.4 Qualities of Useful Models......Page 147
4.4 The Modeling Process: How We Build Models......Page 149
4.4.1 Create a Conceptual Model......Page 150
4.4.2 Construct the Model......Page 151
4.4.3 Exercise the Model......Page 152
4.5 The Model Toolbox: Types of Models, Their Characteristics, and Their Uses......Page 154
4.5.1 Characteristics of Models......Page 157
4.5.2 The Model Toolbox......Page 159
4.6 Simulation Modeling......Page 166
4.6.1 Analytical Solutions Versus Simulation; When It Is Appropriate to Use Simulation......Page 167
4.6.2 Simulation Tools......Page 168
4.7 Determining Required Sample Size......Page 174
4.8 Summary......Page 176
4.9 Exercises......Page 177
References......Page 179
5.1 Introduction to Life Cycle Costing......Page 182
5.2 Introduction to Cost Estimating Techniques......Page 184
5.2.1 Types of Costs......Page 188
5.3.1 Estimating by Analogy Using Expert Judgment......Page 190
5.3.2 Parametric Estimation Using Cost Estimating Relationships......Page 191
5.3.3 Learning Curves......Page 205
5.4 System Cost for Systems Decision Making......Page 212
5.4.2 Inflation......Page 213
5.4.3 Net Present Value......Page 216
5.5 Risk and Uncertainty in Cost Estimation......Page 217
5.5.1 Monte Carlo Simulation Analysis......Page 218
5.5.2 Sensitivity Analysis......Page 222
5.7 Exercises......Page 223
References......Page 226
PART II SYSTEMS ENGINEERING......Page 228
6.2 Definition of System and Systems Thinking......Page 230
6.4 Systems Trends that Challenge Systems Engineers......Page 231
6.5 Three Fundamental Tasks of Systems Engineers......Page 234
6.7 Education, Training, and Knowledge of Systems Engineers......Page 237
6.8 Exercises......Page 238
References......Page 239
7.1 The Systems Engineer in the Engineering Organization......Page 242
Organizational Placement of Systems Engineers......Page 244
7.2 Systems Engineering Activities......Page 245
Establish System Need......Page 246
Produce System......Page 247
The SE and the Client, the User, and the Consumer......Page 248
The SE and the Operations Researcher or System Analyst......Page 250
The SE and the Engineering Manager......Page 251
The SE and the Specialty Engineer......Page 252
Team Fundamentals......Page 253
Team Attitude......Page 254
Team Life Cycle......Page 255
Cross-Cultural Teams......Page 256
Systems Engineering Management Plan (SEMP)......Page 257
Analysis and Management of Systems Requirements......Page 258
System Architecting......Page 261
Systems Engineering Tools and Formal Models......Page 262
Specialty Engineering......Page 263
Major Program Technical Reviews......Page 265
7.6 Roles of the Systems Engineer......Page 266
7.7 Characteristics of the Ideal Systems Engineer......Page 267
7.8 Summary......Page 268
7.9 Exercises......Page 269
References......Page 270
8.1 Introduction to System Effectiveness......Page 272
8.2 Reliability Modeling......Page 273
8.3 Mathematical Models in Reliability......Page 274
8.3.1 Common Continuous Reliability Distributions......Page 278
8.3.2 Common Discrete Distributions......Page 287
8.4 Basic System Models......Page 289
8.4.2 Parallel System......Page 290
8.4.4 Complex Systems......Page 292
8.5.1 Importance Measure for Series System......Page 294
8.6 Reliability Allocation and Improvement......Page 295
8.7.1 Kolmogorov Differential Equations......Page 298
8.7.2 Transient Analysis......Page 299
8.7.4 CTMC Models of Repairable Systems......Page 301
8.7.5 Modeling Multiple Machine Problems......Page 303
8.8 Exercises......Page 308
References......Page 316
PART III SYSTEMS DECISION MAKING......Page 318
9.1 Introduction......Page 320
9.2 Value-Focused Versus Alternative-Focused Thinking......Page 321
9.3 Decision Quality......Page 323
9.4 Systems Decision Process......Page 325
9.5 Role of Stakeholders......Page 327
9.6 Role of Decision Makers......Page 328
9.7 Environment......Page 329
9.8 Comparison with Other Processes......Page 330
9.9 When to Use the Systems Decision Process......Page 331
9.10 Tailoring the Systems Decision Process......Page 334
9.12 Illustrative Example: Systems Engineering Curriculum Management System (CMS)—Summary and Introduction......Page 335
9.13 Exercises......Page 338
References......Page 339
10.1 Introduction......Page 342
10.1.1 The Problem Definition Phase......Page 343
10.1.2 Comparison with Other Systems Engineering Processes......Page 344
10.2 Research and Stakeholder Analysis......Page 345
10.2.1 Techniques for Stakeholder Analysis......Page 347
10.2.2 Stakeholder Analysis for the Rocket System Decision Problem......Page 358
10.3 Functional and Requirements Analyses......Page 359
10.3.2 Importance of Functional Analysis......Page 360
10.3.3 Functional Analysis Techniques......Page 361
10.3.4 Requirements Analysis......Page 369
10.3.5 At Completion......Page 370
10.4.1 Definitions Used In Value Modeling......Page 371
10.4.2 Qualitative Value Modeling......Page 372
10.4.3 Quantitative Value Model......Page 376
10.5.1 Discussion......Page 385
10.6 Illustrative Example: Systems Engineering Curriculum Management System (CMS)—Problem Definition......Page 386
References......Page 395
11.1 Introduction to Solution Design......Page 398
11.2.1 Brainstorming......Page 400
11.2.4 Delphi......Page 403
11.2.7 Morphology......Page 406
11.2.10 Other Ideation Techniques......Page 408
11.3.1 Alternative Generation Approaches......Page 410
11.3.2 Feasibility Screening......Page 411
11.4 Analyzing Candidate Solution Costs......Page 413
11.5.2 Simulating Alternatives......Page 414
11.5.3 Design of Experiments......Page 415
11.5.4 Fractional Factorial Design......Page 421
11.5.5 Pareto Analysis......Page 431
11.7 Illustrative Example: Systems Engineering Curriculum Management System (CMS)—Solution Design......Page 433
11.8 Exercises......Page 435
References......Page 436
12.1 Introduction......Page 440
12.2.1 Revised Problem Statement......Page 441
12.2.6 Confirm Value Measure Ranges and Weights......Page 442
12.3.2 Testing......Page 443
12.3.5 Expert Opinion......Page 444
12.4 Score Candidate Solutions or Candidate Components......Page 445
12.4.1 Software for Decision Analysis......Page 446
12.4.2 Candidate Solution Scoring and Value Calculation......Page 447
12.4.3 Candidate Components Scoring and System Optimization......Page 449
12.5 Conduct Sensitivity Analysis......Page 454
12.5.1 Analyzing Sensitivity on Weights......Page 455
12.5.2 Sensitivity Analysis on Weights Using Excel......Page 456
12.6 Analyses of Uncertainty and Risk......Page 457
12.6.1 Risk Analysis—Conduct Monte Carlo Simulation on Measure Scores......Page 458
12.7 Use Value-Focused Thinking to Improve Solutions......Page 462
12.7.1 Decision Analysis of Dependent Risks......Page 464
12.9 Conduct Cost/Benefit Analysis......Page 468
12.10 Decision-Focused Transformation (DFT)......Page 469
12.10.1 Transformation Equations......Page 470
12.10.3 Cost/Benefit Analysis and Removal of Candidate Solutions......Page 472
12.11 Prepare Recommendation Report and Presentation......Page 477
12.11.1 Develop Report......Page 478
12.11.2 Develop Presentation......Page 479
12.13 Illustrative Example: Systems Engineering Curriculum Management System (CMS)—Decision Making......Page 484
12.14 Exercises......Page 488
References......Page 491
13.1 Introduction......Page 492
13.2 Solution Implementation Phase......Page 494
13.3 The Initiating Process......Page 497
13.4 Planning......Page 498
13.5 Executing......Page 502
13.6 Monitoring and Controlling......Page 503
13.7 Closing......Page 506
13.8.1 Implementation in “Produce the System”......Page 507
13.8.2 Implementation in “Deploy the System”......Page 509
13.8.3 Implementation in “Operate the System”......Page 511
13.9 Exercises......Page 519
References......Page 520
14 Summary......Page 522
14.1.2 The System Life Cycle Must Be Considered......Page 523
14.1.5 Life Cycle Costing Is an Important Tool for Systems Engineering......Page 524
14.2.3 Systems Engineers Define Value and Manage System Effectiveness......Page 525
14.3.1 Problem Definition Is the Key to Systems Decisions......Page 526
14.3.4 Solution Implementation Requires Planning, Executing, and Monitoring and Controlling......Page 527
14.4 Systems Engineering Will Become More Challenging......Page 528
Appendix A SDP Trade Space Concepts......Page 530
Index......Page 536