Climate Extremes and Society

Cover......Page 1
Half-title......Page 3
Title......Page 5
Copyright......Page 6
Contents......Page 7
Contributors......Page 9
Foreword......Page 13
Preface......Page 15
The significance of weather and climate extremes to society: an introduction......Page 19
References......Page 24
I Defining and modeling the nature of weather and climate extremes......Page 27
1.1 Introduction......Page 29
1.2.1 Severe, rare, extreme, or high-impact?......Page 30
1.2.2 Multidimensional nature of extreme events......Page 31
1.2.3 A simple taxonomy......Page 32
1.3.1 Point process modeling of simple extreme events......Page 34
1.3.3 Choice of threshold......Page 35
1.3.4 Magnitude of the extreme events (distribution of the marks)......Page 36
1.3.5 Timing of the extreme events (distribution of the points)......Page 37
1.3.6 Some ideas for future work......Page 38
1.4 The origin of extreme events......Page 39
Acknowledgments......Page 40
References......Page 41
2.1 Introduction......Page 42
2.2 Climate extremes and data issues......Page 44
2.3 Changes in temperature extremes......Page 45
2.4 Extreme precipitation......Page 47
References......Page 50
3.1 Introduction......Page 53
3.2 Underlying problems and approaches......Page 55
3.3 Environmental conditions associated with severe thunderstorms......Page 62
3.4 Historical changes in environments......Page 65
3.5 Conclusions and future needs......Page 67
References......Page 69
4.1 Introduction......Page 72
4.2 How can we determine decadal and longer variations in the storm climate?......Page 74
4.3 How has the storm climate in the Northeast Atlantic and northern Europe developed in the past few decades and past few centuries?......Page 78
4.4 How is storm climate variability linked to hemispheric temperature variations?......Page 82
4.5 How did the impact of windstorms on North Sea storm surges and ocean waves develop over past decades, and what may happen in the expected course of anthropogenic climate change?......Page 83
Acknowledgments......Page 87
References......Page 88
Condensed summary......Page 92
5.1 Introduction......Page 93
5.2 Regional hot and cold summer indices......Page 95
5.2.1 Europe......Page 98
5.2.2 Midlatitude North America......Page 103
5.3 Role of precipitation......Page 109
5.4 Summary and conclusions......Page 111
References......Page 114
6.1 Introduction......Page 117
6.2.1 Defining a heat wave......Page 119
6.2.2 Worst three-day events......Page 120
6.2.3 Spells of days above climatological thresholds......Page 122
6.3 Ten indices of climate extremes: model projected changes during the twenty-first century......Page 127
6.3.2 Extreme indices and climate model output......Page 128
6.3.3 Trends in extreme indices during the twentieth century......Page 129
6.3.4 Changes in extreme indices......Page 130
6.3.5 More about precipitation intensity......Page 134
6.4 Conclusions......Page 135
References......Page 136
7.1 Introduction......Page 138
7.2 Tropical Atlantic (Main Development Region) temperature trends......Page 139
7.3.1 Methodology for idealized hurricane simulations......Page 145
7.3.2 Intensity simulation results......Page 147
7.3.3 Revised precipitation results......Page 149
7.3.4 Comparison of KT04 with observed intensity trends......Page 152
7.4 Conclusions......Page 157
References......Page 158
II Impacts of weather and climate extremes......Page 189
8.1 Introduction......Page 191
8.2 Observations and models......Page 193
8.3 Climate extremes in the Alpine region......Page 196
8.3.1 Summer heat waves......Page 197
8.3.2 Heavy precipitation events......Page 200
8.4 Impacts of extreme events......Page 203
8.5 Conclusions......Page 205
References......Page 206
9.1 Introduction......Page 209
9.2.1 Irradiance and coral growth rate......Page 211
9.2.2 Sea level and coral growth......Page 213
9.2.3 Temperature and coral growth rate......Page 214
9.2.4 Winds and ocean currents......Page 220
9.2.6 Precipitation, salinity, and sedimentation......Page 221
9.2.7 Atmospheric CO2 and calcium carbonate chemistry......Page 222
9.3.1 Introduction......Page 223
9.3.2 Modeling coral growth in Cura…......Page 225
Acknowledgments......Page 228
References......Page 229
10.1 Introduction......Page 233
10.2 Normalized insured losses: 1900–2005......Page 235
10.3 Climate variations......Page 238
10.4 Large and small losses......Page 241
10.5 Predicting annual losses......Page 243
10.6 Predicting extreme losses......Page 246
10.7 Summary......Page 249
References......Page 250
Condensed summary......Page 253
11.1 Introduction......Page 254
11.2 Overview of loss models......Page 257
11.3 Climate models as drivers of loss estimation models......Page 259
11.3.1 Modifications to the CCSM and nesting methodology......Page 261
11.3.3 Atlantic basin results......Page 262
Acknowledgments......Page 266
References......Page 267
12.1 Introduction......Page 269
12.2 Data......Page 270
12.4 Caveats......Page 273
12.5 Normalization results......Page 275
12.6 Trend analysis......Page 277
12.7.1 Disaster loss trends......Page 278
12.7.2 Climate change......Page 281
12.7.3 Trend sensitivity......Page 282
References......Page 284
13.1 Introduction......Page 292
13.2 Recent UK weather trends......Page 293
13.3 UK property insurance experience......Page 296
13.4.1 The Foresight Programme’s view of flooding in the 2080s......Page 298
13.4.2 Illustrative reinsurance example......Page 300
13.4.4 Implications for underwriting......Page 302
13.5 2005 in perspective......Page 304
13.6 Munich Re estimates of climate-related losses......Page 308
13.6.1 Parallels with the United Kingdom......Page 309
13.7 Loss trends and projections......Page 310
13.8 European storms......Page 312
13.9.1 Other property/casualty classes......Page 314
13.9.3 The right null hypothesis?......Page 316
13.10 The future role of the insurance industry......Page 317
References......Page 318
14.1 Introduction......Page 323
14.2 Who needs a loss inventory?......Page 325
14.3 Data on hazard events and losses......Page 326
14.4 Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States......Page 330
14.4.2 Spatial coverage......Page 331
14.4.3 Caveats......Page 332
14.5 Increasing losses from weather-related hazards......Page 333
14.7 Mitigation through information: establishing a clearinghouse for loss data......Page 334
References......Page 338
15.1 Introduction......Page 340
15.2.2 Reemergence into the Gulf of Mexico......Page 341
15.2.3 Second landfall in Louisiana......Page 342
15.2.4 A formidable storm......Page 343
15.2.5 The Great New Orleans Flood......Page 344
15.3.1 First landfall projected loss from wind......Page 346
Storm surge damage......Page 347
Projected losses......Page 348
15.3.3 Offshore energy projected losses......Page 349
15.3.4 New Orleans projected flood losses......Page 350
15.3.5 Other projected losses......Page 352
15.3.6 Initial consolidated projected loss......Page 353
15.4.2 Hurricane activity rates......Page 354
15.4.3 Storm surge......Page 355
15.4.5 Industry exposure data......Page 356
15.4.7 Uncertainty in loss modeling......Page 357
15.4.8 Loss amplification......Page 358
15.4.9 Super catastrophes......Page 359
15.5 Conclusions......Page 361
References......Page 362
16.1 Introduction......Page 364
16.2 Genesis of the Risk Prediction Initiative......Page 365
16.3 RPI activities......Page 367
16.4 Overview of RPI-funded research results......Page 370
16.5 Melding science into the catastrophe risk business......Page 372
16.6 The RPI as an example for other efforts......Page 374
16.7 Conclusions......Page 375
References......Page 376
Index......Page 381