World Energy Outlook

World Energy Outlook 2020
Foreword
Acknowledgements
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Part A
	Chapter 01 - Overview and key findings
		Introduction
		Impacts of Covid-19 on the energy outlook
			1.1 The pandemic is far from over and many uncertainties remain
			1.2 Today’s policy settings do not produce a decisive break in the outlookfor CO2 emissions, but a more sustainable recovery is possible
			1.3 Renewables are taking power and solar is the new king
			1.4 Modern societies are becoming ever more reliant on electricity, butweak grids could prove to be an Achilles heel
			1.5 The pandemic could trigger lasting changes in consumer
			1.6 Lower fuel prices are a mixed blessing for energy security andsustainability
			1.7 This is a crisis that penalises the most vulnerable
			1.8 Covid-19 sharpens the dilemmas facing the oil and gas industry
		Prospects for clean energy transitions
			1.9 Enhanced clean energy policies and investments can make 2019 thepeak year for energy-related emissions
			1.10 Today’s energy infrastructure, if operated as per past practices, wouldlock in a temperature rise of 1.65 °C
			1.11 Within ten years, in the SDS, the drop in air pollutants would producesignificantly cleaner air than experienced during the 2020 lockdowns
			1.12 Gases – of different sorts – are pivotal to different stages of energytransitions, but are still in search of clear roles and business models
			1.13 Transitions depend on government actions, but more than 70% ofrelated investments could come from private actors
			1.14 Net-zero pledges for 2050 and earlier are already essential to the SDS;achieving global net-zero by 2050 would require a dramatic extra push
			1.15 Behavioural changes are essential to achieve the scale and speed ofemissions reductions required in the NZE2050
			1.16 If energy transitions are not secure, then they will not be rapid either
	Chapter 02 - An energy world in lockdown
		2.1 Overview
		2.2 Energy and Covid-19 pandemic
			2.2.1 Impacts by fuel and technology
				Oil
				Electricity
				Natural gas
				Coal
				Renewables
				Nuclear
				Energy efficiency
		2.3 Which way from here?
			2.3.1 New questions and uncertainties
				Duration of the pandemic and the shape of the economic recovery
				Strategies adopted by governments to kick-start economies
				Risks for energy investment
				Implications for energy costs and prices
				Changes in company strategies
				Changes in consumer attitudes and behaviour
			2.3.2 Designing the scenarios
				Scenarios
				Economic outlook
				Energy and carbon prices
				Technology innovation, deployment and costs
Part B
	Chapter 03 - Building on a sustainable recovery
		3.1 Introduction
			3.1.1 How has Covid-19 affected the Sustainable Development Scenario?
				A new starting point
				An evolving backdrop
		3.2 Energy access
			3.2.1 Impacts of the pandemic
				Affordability and energy poverty
				Availability of financing
			3.2.2 A pathway to universal energy access by 2030
		3.3 Air pollution
			3.3.1 Impacts of the pandemic
			3.3.2 A pathway to cleaner air by 2030
		3.4 Greenhouse gas emissions
			3.4.1 Impacts of the pandemic
			3.4.2 CO2 emissions from existing energy infrastructure
			3.4.3 Energy sector transformation to 2030
				Oil and natural gas production
				Electricity
				Industry
				Transport
				Buildings
			3.4.4 Investment and finance
				Role of private and public sources and capital structures in investment
			3.4.5 Trends after 2030
	Chapter 04 - Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050
		4.1 Introduction
		4.2 A pathway towards global net-zero emissions in 2050
			4.2.1 Primary energy demand and total final consumption
			4.2.2 Electricity supply
			4.2.3 Industry
			4.2.4 Transport
			4.2.5 Buildings
		4.3 Role of behaviour changes in the NZE2050
			4.3.1 CO2 emissions savings from behaviour changes in the NZE2050
			4.3.2 Further details on behaviour changes
				Private mobility
				Residential energy use
				Working from home
				Passenger aviation
		4.4 Lessons from countries with zero emissions targets
			4.4.1 Net-zero emissions in the European Union in the SDS
			4.4.2 Lessons for policy makers and industry
		4.5 Conclusions
	Chapter 05 - Outlook for energy demand
		5.1 Overview
			5.1.1 Uneven rebound to 2030
				Total primary energy demand
				Final energy consumption by sector
				Total primary energy demand by region
			5.1.2 Beyond 2030
				Total primary energy
				Policy impacts
		5.2 Oil
			5.2.1 Overview of oil demand trends
			5.2.2 Oil demand by sector
				Passenger cars
				Trucks
				Aviation
				Shipping
				Petrochemicals
				Industry, buildings and power generation
		5.3 Natural gas
			5.3.1 Overview of natural gas demand trends
				Power
				Industry
				Other sectors
				Uncertainties affecting the outlook for natural gas
		5.4 Coal
			5.4.1 Overview of coal demand trends
				Advanced economies
				China
				India and Southeast Asia
				Uncertainties affecting the outlook for coal
		5.5 Nuclear
		5.6 Renewables
			5.6.1 Renewables demand by sector
				Power
				Transport
				Heat
				Uncertainties affecting the outlook for end-use renewables
		5.7 Energy efficiency
			Energy intensity improvements
			5.7.1 Energy efficiency by sector
				Uncertainties affecting the outlook for efficiency
	Chapter 06 - Outlook for electricity
		6.1 Introduction
		6.2 Outlook for electricity demand
			6.2.1 Overview
			6.2.2 Electricity demand by sector
			6.2.3 Electricity demand by region
		6.3 Outlook for electricity supply
			6.3.1 Overview
			6.3.2 Renewables
			6.3.3 Coal-fired power
			6.3.4 Natural gas-fired power
			6.3.5 Nuclear power
			6.3.6 Focus on financing costs for utility-scale solar PV
				Financing costs with revenue support mechanisms
				Financing costs of full merchant projects
				Implications for levelised cost of electricity
		6.4 Outlook for flexibility
			6.4.1 Electricity networks
				Network expansion
				Investment
				Grid revenue and the Covid-19 crisis
			6.4.2 Energy storage
			6.4.3 Demand-side response
		6.5 Implications for sustainability
			6.5.1 CO2 and pollutant emissions
			6.5.2 Electricity access
	Chapter 07 - Outlook for fuel supply
		7.1 Introduction
		7.2 Oil supply
			7.2.1 Upstream
				Impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic
				Oil supply outlook to 2030
				Longer term dynamics
			7.2.2 Refining
				Impact of the Covid-19 pandemic
				Outlook for refining
		7.3 Natural gas supply
			Impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic
			Natural gas supply outlook to 2030
			A sensitive global LNG balance
			Longer term dynamics
		7.4 Coal supply
			Impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic
			Coal supply outlook to 2030
			Outlook for coal trade
		7.5 Other fuels
			7.5.1 Modern use of solid biomass
			7.5.2 Liquid biofuels
			7.5.3 Biogas and biomethane
			7.5.4 Nuclear fuels
			7.5.5 Low-carbon hydrogen
	Chapter 08 - A delayed recovery
		8.1 Introduction
			8.1.1 A delayed recovery to 2030
			8.1.2 Longer term outlook
		8.2 Impacts of a Delayed Recovery Scenario
			8.2.1 Oil
			8.2.2 Electricity
			8.2.3 Natural gas
			8.2.4 Coal
			8.2.5 Renewables
			8.2.6 Nuclear
			8.2.7 Efficiency
		8.3 Implications of a Delayed Recovery Scenario
			8.3.1 Energy security
			8.3.2 Emissions
			8.3.3 Inequality and energy access
			8.3.4 Investment
			8.3.5 Innovation
Annexes
	Annex A - Tables for scenario projections
		Table A.1
		Table A.2
		Table A.3
		Table A.4
		Table A.5
	Annex B - Design of the scenarios
		B.1 Fossil fuel resources
		B.2 Power generation technology costs
		B.3 Key demand-side technology costs
		B.4 Policies
	Annex C - Definitions
	Annex D - References
		Chapter 1: Overview and key findings
		Chapter 2: An energy world in lockdown
		Chapter 3: Building on a sustainable recovery
		Chapter 4: Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050
		Chapter 5: Outlook for energy demand
		Chapter 6: Outlook for electricity
		Chapter 7: Outlook for fuel supply
		Chapter 8: A delayed recovery
		Annex B
	Annex E - Inputs to the World Energy Model
		General note
		IEA databases and publications
		External databases and publications
			Socioeconomic variables
			Power
			Industry
			Transport
			Buildings and energy access
			Energy supply and energy investment