Waves of war: nationalism, state formation, and ethnic exclusion in the modern world

cover.pdf......Page 1
Waves of War......Page 3
Title......Page 7
Copyright......Page 8
Contents......Page 9
Figures......Page 10
Tables......Page 11
Acknowledgments......Page 12
1 The narrative in a nutshell and the moral of the tale......Page 15
2.1 Bringing power and legitimacy center stage......Page 19
2.2 New data to answer old questions......Page 20
3 Four methodological principles......Page 23
4.1 Political alliances and identities......Page 25
4.2 Principles of legitimacy......Page 27
4.3 Power configurations and conflict......Page 29
5.1 Negotiating nationhood......Page 31
5.2 The global rise of the nation-state......Page 34
6.1 Nation-state formation and war......Page 37
6.2 Ethnic politics and armed conflict......Page 42
6.3 Can peace be engineered?......Page 45
7 Limitations and implications......Page 48
2 The birth of the nation......Page 51
1 Modeling strategy......Page 53
2.1 The basics: actors and alliance systems......Page 57
2.2 The model in a nutshell......Page 60
2.3 The exchange model in detail......Page 61
2.4 Considerations of cultural commonality......Page 63
2.5 The negotiation process in detail......Page 65
3.1 Hypotheses......Page 67
3.2 Empirical calibration I: empire and strong scenario......Page 69
3.3 Empirical calibration II: the weak scenario......Page 71
4 Results: strong and weak scenarios with well-developed civil societies......Page 73
5.1 Ethnic closure......Page 75
5.2 Negotiating nationhood......Page 77
5.3 The populist compromise......Page 78
6 When cultural traits matter......Page 79
7 Historical analogies: French nation building, Ottoman disintegration......Page 81
8 Summary and conclusions......Page 85
3 The global rise of the nation-state......Page 87
1.1 Economic modernization......Page 89
1.2 Political modernization......Page 90
1.3 Cultural modernization......Page 91
1.4 World polity theory......Page 92
1.5 A power-configurational approach......Page 93
1.6 Existing datasets and quantitative findings......Page 96
2.1 Units of observation......Page 98
Dependent variable......Page 100
Independent variables......Page 103
2.3 Modeling approach and time specification......Page 107
3 Results......Page 108
3.1 Main findings......Page 109
3.2 Context and contingency......Page 115
4 Conclusions......Page 120
1 Blind spots in conventional studies of war......Page 122
1.1 Nationalism and nation-state formation......Page 123
1.2 Long-term processes......Page 124
1.3 Beyond methodological nationalism......Page 126
2.1 Imperial expansion and nation-state formation, 1816–2001......Page 127
2.2 A long-term, institutionalist model of modern war......Page 128
2.3 Imperial incorporation and war......Page 129
2.4 Nation-state formation and war......Page 130
2.5 Summary: institutional transformations and war......Page 134
3 A new dataset......Page 135
3.2 The war dataset......Page 136
4.1 Rates of war around the two transformations......Page 139
4.2 Rates of onset for different types of war......Page 141
5.1 Testing the institutionalist model......Page 143
5.2 Other independent variables......Page 144
6 Two regression models......Page 146
6.1 Civil war onsets......Page 147
6.2 Inter-state war onsets......Page 151
7 Conclusions......Page 154
5 Ethnic politics and armed conflict......Page 157
1 Main Approaches To Ethnicity and armed conflict......Page 159
2 A CONFIGURATIONAL THEORY OF ETHNIC POLITICS AND CONFLICT......Page 163
2.1 Ethno-political configurations of conflicts......Page 164
2.2 War-prone configurations: hypotheses......Page 165
2.3 Existing theoretical traditions and empirical findings......Page 168
3.1 Politically relevant ethnic groups and access to power......Page 170
3.2 War coding......Page 173
4.2 Other variables......Page 174
5 Models and findings......Page 175
5.1 Explaining armed conflict: ethnic exclusion matters......Page 176
5.2 Explaining ethnic conflict: exclusion, segmentation, incoherence......Page 180
5.3 Explaining different types of ethnic conflict: a configurational analysis......Page 181
6 Conclusions......Page 186
6 Can peace be engineered?......Page 188
1.1 Direct effects of democracy......Page 190
1.2 Indirect effects of democracy, parliamentarianism, proportionalism, and federalism......Page 191
2 Direct effects of proportionalism, parliamentarianism, and federalism......Page 194
2.1 Ethnic armed conflict......Page 197
2.2 Infighting and rebellion......Page 199
2.3 Inclusion rather than institutional engineering......Page 204
3 Does more inclusion foster infighting?......Page 205
4 Power sharing after conflict ends......Page 206
5 Nation building or sharing sovereignty?......Page 208
1 Summary......Page 211
2 Beyond identity versus interest, greed versus grievance......Page 214
3 Why ethnicity?......Page 215
4 Globalization and the end of history......Page 216
Appendices......Page 220
Bibliography......Page 311
Index......Page 332
Series......Page 343