Water Resources of Pakistan: Issues and Impacts (World Water Resources, 9)

Foreword 1
Foreword 2
Acknowledgements
Contents
Chapter 1: Pakistan’s Water Resources: Overview and Challenges
	1.1 Overview of Pakistan’s Water Resources
	1.2 Pakistan – Water Challenges
	1.3 Book Overview and Key Messages
	References
Chapter 2: Pakistan’s Water Resources: From Retrospect to Prospect
	2.1 Introduction to Pakistan’s Water Resources
	2.2 Pakistan’s Water Origins in the Middle Indus Valley
	2.3 The Indefinite Indus Basin of Pakistan – August 1947 to September 1960
	2.4 From State Canals to Private Tube-Wells – 1960 to 2010
	2.5 The Great Flood and Back to the Future (2010–2020)
	2.6 Prospect
	References
Chapter 3: Pakistan’s Transboundary Water Challenge
	3.1 Pakistan’s Transboundary Water Profile: Dependencies and Development Pressures in the Indus Basin
	3.2 Nature of the Transboundary Water Challenge
		3.2.1 Pakistan–India
		3.2.2 Pakistan–Afghanistan
		3.2.3 Pakistan–China
		3.2.4 Effects of Climate Change on a Basin-Wide Scale
	3.3 Legal and Institutional Architecture for Transboundary Water Sharing: Voids, Omissions and Spaces for Action
	3.4 Transboundary Water Governance for Pakistan’s Future
	References
Chapter 4: Water Security in Pakistan: Availability, Accessibility and Utilisation
	4.1 Water Security in Pakistan: A Broad Perspective
		4.1.1 Defining Water Security
		4.1.2 Water, Population and Uncertainty
		4.1.3 Understanding the Resource at the National Scale
		4.1.4 Beyond the Broad Perspective: Water Security at Local Scales
	4.2 Perspective A: South Punjab
		4.2.1 Context and Study Area
		4.2.2 Agricultural Water Availability
		4.2.3 Unsustainable Groundwater Extraction
		4.2.4 Electric Tube-Wells and Policy Paradigm Shift
	4.3 Perspective B: Karachi City
		4.3.1 Water Availability
		4.3.2 Water Demand
		4.3.3 Access
		4.3.4 Water Quality and Hazards
	4.4 Perspective C: Southern Sindh and the Indus Delta
		4.4.1 Uncertain Water Availability
		4.4.2 Water Security of the Indus Delta
	4.5 Concluding Thoughts
	Appendix
	References
Chapter 5: Climate Change in the Mountains of Pakistan and its Water Availability Implications
	5.1 Background
	5.2 Climatology of Northern Pakistan
	5.3 Hydrology of Northern Pakistan
	5.4 Cryospheric Profile of Pakistan
	5.5 Climate Change in Pakistan
		5.5.1 Changes in Precipitation and Temperature across the HKH Mountains of Pakistan
	5.6 Concluding Remarks
	References
Chapter 6: Pakistan’s Water Resources in the Era of Climate Change
	6.1 Geographical Location
	6.2 Situation Analysis
	6.3 Major Climatic Threats
		6.3.1 Temperature Rise
		6.3.2 Erratic Precipitation Patterns
		6.3.3 Extreme Events (Floods and Droughts)
		6.3.4 Glacier Melting
		6.3.5 Sea Level Rise and Seawater Intrusion in the Indus Delta
	6.4 Conclusions and the Way Forward
	References
Chapter 7: Unlocking Economic Growth Under a Changing Climate: Agricultural Water Reforms in Pakistan
	7.1 Introduction
	7.2 Modelling Framework
		7.2.1 The Water Demand Module
	7.3 Scenarios and Key Assumptions
	7.4 Indus Basin Water Balances in the CGE-W
		7.4.1 CGE-W Climate Change Assumptions
	7.5 Future Water Demand and Use
		7.5.1 Crop-Wise Water Use
	7.6 Connecting Economic Productivity and GDP Growth with Water Productivity
	7.7 Dietary Change
	7.8 Critical Agricultural Reforms
	7.9 Improving Environmental Management
	7.10 CGE-W Support to Reforms for a Water Secure Pakistan
		7.10.1 Strategic Planning
		7.10.2 Improvements in Irrigation and Drainage Services
		7.10.3 Inter-sectoral Water Allocations
	7.11 Conclusions
	References
Chapter 8: Sustainability Analysis of Irrigation Water Management in Punjab, Pakistan
	8.1 Introduction
		8.1.1 Punjab’s Water Resources in the National Context
		8.1.2 Typology of Farm Level Irrigation Management in Punjab
	8.2 Sustainability Analysis of Irrigation Water Management in Punjab
		8.2.1 Risk and Vulnerability
			8.2.1.1 Reliability
			8.2.1.2 Reversibility
		8.2.2 Environmental System Integrity
			8.2.2.1 The Health of Flood Plain Ecosystem
			8.2.2.2 Water Quality
			8.2.2.3 Resilience to Climate Change
		8.2.3 Economic Acceptability and Equity
			8.2.3.1 Self-Reliance
			8.2.3.2 Water Use Efficiency
			8.2.3.3 Equity
	8.3 Conclusion and Recommendations
	References
Chapter 9: Examining Irrigated Agriculture in Pakistan with a Water-Energy-Food Nexus Approach
	9.1 Introduction
	9.2 An Historical Geographic Perspective on the WEF Nexus in the Indus Basin
	9.3 The Modern WEF Nexus Framework: Perspectives, Levels and Scales
		9.3.1 Perspectives
			9.3.1.1 System Perspective
			9.3.1.2 Governance Perspective
			9.3.1.3 Emerging Discourse Perspective
			9.3.1.4 Resource Recovery Perspective
			9.3.1.5 Environmental Livelihood Security Perspective
			9.3.1.6 Economic Optimisation Perspective
		9.3.2 Levels of Analysis
			9.3.2.1 Value Level
			9.3.2.2 Normative Level
			9.3.2.3 Pragmatic Level
			9.3.2.4 Empirical Level
		9.3.3 Scales of Analysis
			9.3.3.1 Greater Pakistan Scale
			9.3.3.2 Indus Basin Irrigation System Scale
			9.3.3.3 Provincial Scale
			9.3.3.4 Sub-Provincial Scales
		9.3.4 Summary
	9.4 WEF Nexus Challenges in Pakistan’s Irrigated Agriculture Sector
		9.4.1 Low Crop Yields and Water Productivity
		9.4.2 Low Staple and Export Crop Diversification
		9.4.3 Energy Use for Groundwater Pumping
		9.4.4 Dated Surface Water Allocation Systems
		9.4.5 Lack of a Regulatory Groundwater Policy Framework
		9.4.6 Adaptation of a Climate-and-Society Smart Irrigated Agriculture
		9.4.7 Governing the WEF Nexus
	9.5 Distributaries, Districts and DISCOs: A Way Forward for Implementing WEF Nexus Thinking in the Irrigated Agriculture Sector
	References
Chapter 10: Groundwater Crisis: A Crisis of Governance?
	10.1 Pakistan’s Groundwater Crisis in the Global Context
	10.2 Growing Dependency on Groundwater: A Case of Pakistan’s Punjab Province
	10.3 A Crisis of Governance? Insights from the History of Groundwater Governance in Punjab, Pakistan
		10.3.1 Colonial Approach to Groundwater Governance
		10.3.2 Post-colonial Groundwater Development
		10.3.3 Historical Contingency and the Contemporary Groundwater Governance Problem
	10.4 Implication for Water Policy and Groundwater Governance in Pakistan
	References
Chapter 11: Spatial Variability of Groundwater Storage in Pakistan
	11.1 Introduction
	11.2 Geography and Climate of Pakistan
		11.2.1 Groundwater Resources of Pakistan
	11.3 Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Data
	11.4 Methodology
		11.4.1 Sen’s Slope Estimator
		11.4.2 Modified Mann-Kendall (MK) Test
		11.4.3 Assessment of Spatial Patterns of Changes
	11.5 Results and Discussion
		11.5.1 Monthly and Yearly Variations in Groundwater Mean Storage
		11.5.2 Spatial Patterns of Groundwater Storage Variations
		11.5.3 Trends in Groundwater Storage Decline
	11.6 Conclusions
	References
Chapter 12: Impacts of Water Quality on Human Health in Pakistan
	12.1 Introduction
		12.1.1 Water Quality Definition and Global Context
		12.1.2 Water Quality and Anthropogenic Impacts
		12.1.3 Water Quality Status of Pakistan
		12.1.4 Major Pollutants in Water Resources of Pakistan and Their Sources
	12.2 Status of Microbial Pathogens in Water Resources of Pakistan and Their Health Impacts
	12.3 Status of Toxic Metals in Water Resources of Pakistan and Their Health Impacts
	12.4 Impact of Water-Borne Diseases on the Pakistan Economy
	12.5 Environmental Regulations in Pakistan
	12.6 Recommended Strategies to Reduce Water-Borne Health Issues
	12.7 Conclusion
	References
Chapter 13: Improving Water Management in Pakistan Using Social-Ecological Systems Research
	13.1 Introduction
	13.2 Why Water Management in Pakistan Needs Improving: Groundwater as a Case Study
		13.2.1 Ecological Impacts
		13.2.2 Societal Impacts
		13.2.3 Causes: A Social-Ecological Systems Analysis
	13.3 Contributing to Improved Water Management Using the Practice of Social-Ecological Systems Research
		13.3.1 Interdisciplinary Research: Building Partnerships Across Disciplines
			13.3.1.1 What We Have Been Doing
			13.3.1.2 Suggested Improvements
		13.3.2 Transdisciplinary Research: Building Partnerships Between Researchers and Research Users
			13.3.2.1 What We Have Been Doing
			13.3.2.2 Suggested Improvements
		13.3.3 Co-inquiry and Interventionist Research: Building Partnerships Between Researchers, Research Users and Research Beneficiaries
			13.3.3.1 What We Have Been Doing
			13.3.3.2 Mobile Application “Apna Pani” for Groundwater Data Collection and Visualisation
			13.3.3.3 Suggested Improvements
		13.3.4 Investment Planning
	13.4 Conclusion
	References
Chapter 14: A Roadmap for a Comprehensive Water Resources Forecast System for Pakistan
	14.1 Introduction
		14.1.1 Forecast Paradigm
		14.1.2 Model Scale
		14.1.3 Forecast Uncertainty
	14.2 Forecasting System Framework
		14.2.1 Traditional Approach
		14.2.2 Automated Approach
		14.2.3 Hybrid Forecast Approach
	14.3 Pakistan’s Needs
		14.3.1 Model Selection and Forecast System Design
		14.3.2 Concept of Operations (CONOPS)
		14.3.3 Staff Training
		14.3.4 Precipitation Processing System
		14.3.5 Real-Time and Archive Relational Databases
		14.3.6 Model Parameter Estimation and Calibration
			14.3.6.1 Parameter Estimation
			14.3.6.2 Calibration
		14.3.7 Modelling System
		14.3.8 System Monitoring
		14.3.9 Real-Time Forecast Assessment
		14.3.10 Forecast Verification System
	14.4 Implementation Considerations
		14.4.1 ecFlow Approach
			14.4.1.1 ecFlow Advantages
			14.4.1.2 ecFlow Disadvantages
		14.4.2 FEWS Approach
			14.4.2.1 FEWS Advantages
			14.4.2.2 FEWS Disadvantages
	14.5 Conclusion and Recommendations
	References
Chapter 15: Ways Forward to Improve Water Security in Pakistan
	15.1 Water Security and Pakistan’s Challenge
	15.2 Re-thinking the National Water Policy 2018
	15.3 The Institutional Structures and Issues in Recent Water Legislation
	15.4 Leverage Points for Better Water Policy and Achieving Water Security
	15.5 Conclusions
	References