Vulnerability, uncertainty, and risk analysis, modeling, and management: proceedings of the First International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management (ICVRAM 2011) and the Fifth International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis (ISUMA 2011), April 11-13, 2011, Hyattsville, Maryland

Cover......Page 1
Contents......Page 8
 Application of Evolutionary Computing to Disaster Restoration and Prevention Problems......Page 16
 Quantitative Risk Analysis of Damage to Structures during Windstorms: Random Field and System Reliability Aspects......Page 26
 Statistical Decisions with Random Fuzzy Data—A Possibilistic Approach......Page 36
 Statistic Inference under Two Structurally Different Approaches to Interval Data......Page 44
 Independence in Generalized Interval Probability......Page 52
 Embodied Knowledge of Gesture Motion Acquired by Singular Spectrum Analysis......Page 60
 Fuzzy Probability in Engineering Analyses......Page 68
 A Process for the Estimation of the Duration of Activities in Fuzzy Project Scheduling......Page 77
 Uncertainty Arithmetic on Excel Spreadsheets: Add-In for Intervals, Probability Distributions, and Probability Boxes......Page 85
 Extended Uniform Distribution Accounting for Uncertainty of Uncertainty......Page 93
 Efficiency Comparison of Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation with Subset Simulation (MCMC/ss) to Standard Monte Carlo Simulation (sMC) for Extreme Event Scenarios......Page 101
 Multi-Agent Simulation Considering the Influence of Leader during Flood Disaster......Page 111
 Multi-Agent Simulation to Uncertain Civilian Return Trips during a Hypothetical Earthquake......Page 119
 Statistical Characterization and Prediction of Sea Waves Based on Buoy Data......Page 128
 Measuring Validity of Reasoning Process for Transportation Planning Using Bayesian Inference and Dempster-Shafer Theory......Page 136
 A Simulation Framework for the Path Planning of Unmanned Autonomous Systems......Page 144
 Development of Gap Acceptance Fuzzy Models Using Data from Driving Simulator Experiments......Page 153
 Entropy Approach to Risk-Analysis of Critical Infrastructure Systems......Page 162
 A Survey of Network Theoretic Approaches for Risk Analysis of Complex Infrastructure Systems......Page 170
 Regional Social and Economic Risks As Conditions of Formation of Critical Infrastructure......Page 178
 Decomposition Methods for Restoring Infrastructure Systems......Page 186
 Strategic Planning for Power System Restoration......Page 195
 Preparedness of Finnish Electricity Users against Major Disturbances in Supply of Electric Power......Page 203
 Development of Spatial Risk Profiles of Cargo Rail Systems......Page 212
 Probabilistic Study of Cascading Failures in Complex Interdependent Lifeline Systems......Page 220
 Vulnerability Assessment of Infrastructure Networks by Using Hierarchical Decomposition Methods......Page 229
 Sustainability: Complexity, Regulations, and Decisions......Page 237
 A Systems Approach to Vulnerability Assessment......Page 245
 System Reliability Analysis of Fatigue-Induced Sequential Failure......Page 253
 Sample Treatment of Uncertainties in Earthquake Portfolio Risk Analysis......Page 261
 Probabilistic Application in Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Structures......Page 267
 Options for the Treatment of Uncertainty in Seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessment of Nuclear Power Plants......Page 275
 Seismic Investigation for the Temple of Antioch Reconstruction......Page 283
 Multicriteria Optimization under Uncertainty: Average Criteria Method......Page 291
 National-Level Infrastructure Risk Evaluation Framework and Best Practices......Page 299
 Probabilistic Performance Risk Evaluation of Infrastructure Projects......Page 307
 Optimal Planning of Public Works Using Improved Genetic Algorithm......Page 315
 Quantitative Risk Assessment, Public Policy, and Decision-Making......Page 323
 Research on the Establishment of Mega Public Building Safety Risk Assessment System in China......Page 331
 A New Model of Supervision of Chinese Government over Building Safety: Based on the Third-Party Assessment Mechanism......Page 341
 Development of Spatial Risk Profiles Resulting from Sea Level Rise......Page 349
 Evaluating the Source of the Risks Associated with Natural Events......Page 357
 Florida International University’s Wall of Wind: A Tool for Improving Construction Materials and Methods for Hurricane-Prone Regions......Page 367
 Risk Management of Long Term Infrastructure Projects “PPP-BOT Projects” by Using Uncertainty, Probabilistic and Stochastic Methods, and Models......Page 375
 Mixing Good Data with Bad: How to Do It and When You Should Not......Page 383
 Study on the Method Selection for Building Safety Risk Assessment in China......Page 389
 Decision-Making Model for Offshore Offloading Operations Based on Probabilistic Risk Assessment......Page 400
 Preliminary Risk Analysis of a Liquefied Natural Gas Regasification System in an Offshore Unit......Page 409
 Seismic Risk Assessment and Sensitivity Analysis in Terms of Life-Cycle Repair Cost......Page 417
 Influence of Socio-Economic Consequences of World Economic Crisis on a Shadow Economy......Page 425
 Classification and Moral Evaluation of Uncertainties in Engineering Modeling......Page 432
 Making Urban Territories More Resilient to Flooding by Improving the Resilience of Their Waste Management Network: A Methodology for Analysing Dysfunctions in Waste Management Networks during and after Flooding......Page 440
 A Polynomial Chaos Approach for Uncertainty Analysis of Chloride-Induced Corrosion in Concrete Structures......Page 448
 Method of Assessment of Human-Induced Area Risks and Creation of Risk Map Using Geoinformation Systems......Page 457
 Closed-Form Approximation to Annual Failure Probabilities......Page 465
 Use of Quantitative Risk Assessment in Structural Design......Page 473
 Statistical Tools for Populating/Predicting Input Data of Risk Analysis Models......Page 483
 Integrating Risk Management within the Project Delivery Process at Caltrans: A Transportation Project Case Study......Page 492
 The Relationship between Hazards Vulnerability and Stage of Economic Development in Haiti and Chile......Page 500
 Applying Heuristics to Civil Engineering......Page 508
 Probabilistic and Optimization Considerations in Multihazard Engineering......Page 516
 Asset Management of Structures Using Hybrid Structural Health Monitoring and Structural Uncertainty Analysis Procedure......Page 525
 Structural Health Assessment Using Only Noise-Contaminated Responses......Page 533
 Statistically Detecting Clustering for Rare Events......Page 541
 A Bayesian Framework to Predict Deformations during Supported Excavations Based on a Semi-Empirical Method......Page 548
 A Bayesian Network Approach for Identification of Critical Components of a System......Page 556
 Damage Detection in Water Distribution Pipe Network Using Bayesian Framework and System Reliability Analysis......Page 564
 Bayesian Network for Post-Earthquake Decision on Monitored Structures......Page 576
 Risk-Based Framework for Stream Repair Projects......Page 585
 Managing Climate Change Uncertainty in Water Supply Planning......Page 593
 Improvements in Hurricane Surge Response Functions: Incorporating the Effects of Forward Speed, Approach Angle, and Sea Level Rise......Page 602
 A Comparison of Top-Down Statistical Models with Bottom-Up Methods for Power System Reliability Estimation in High Wind Events......Page 609
 Classification of Current Building Stock for Hurricane Risk Analysis......Page 617
 Probabilistic Hurricane Surge Risk Estimation through High-Fidelity Numerical Simulation and Response Surface Approximations......Page 625
 Wind Vulnerability Curves for Low-Rise Commercial-Residential Buildings in the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model......Page 633
 Database-Assisted Design: Why and How?......Page 641
 Probabilistic Demand Models and Fragility Estimates for Offshore Wind Turbine Support Structures......Page 648
 The Use of Aerodynamic and Wind Climatological Databases for High-Rise Reinforced Concrete Structure Design......Page 656
 Development of Large Directional Wind Speed Databases......Page 665
 Dynamic Displacement Analysis of a Shallow Landslide in Norwood Tuff......Page 674
 Intra- and Inter-Event Uncertainties of Ground Motion Attenuation Relations......Page 682
 Effective Shear Strengths of Isotopic Spatially Variable Soil Masses......Page 690
 Transportation Risk Analysis (TRA) of Bosphorus Suspended Bridge Using Probabilistic Approach......Page 698
 Effects of Spatial Variability of Soil Property on Slope Stability......Page 706
 Interval Reliability Analysis for Gravity Retaining System of Deep Excavation......Page 714
 Methodology for Risk Analysis of Ground Surface Subsidence......Page 723
 A Methodology of Constructing Dynamic Risk Maps for Large Metropolitan Areas......Page 731
 A Methodology to Produce Interdependent Networks Disturbance Scenarios......Page 739
 Automated Security Risk Analysis Tool for USAF Installation Security......Page 747
 Risk-Based Cost-Benefit Analysis for Security Assessment Problems......Page 753
 Assessing Vulnerability to Floods of the Built Environment—Integrating Urban Networks and Buildings......Page 761
 Quantifying System Vulnerability As a Performance Measure for Systems Investment Evaluation and Decision-Making......Page 769
 Resilience and Preparedness of Critical Infrastructure......Page 779
 Development of Spatial Risk Profiles Resulting from Sea Level Rise: What Predictions of Future Sea Level Rise Mean for the Built Coast......Page 787
 Defining and Assessing Vulnerability of Infrastructure to Terrorist Attack......Page 797
 Integrating Flood Defence Fragility to Measure Built Environment Vulnerability—A GIS Based Approach......Page 805
 Many-Objective Risk-Based Planning within Complex Engineering Systems: An Urban Water Planning Example......Page 813
 Risk Management of Asalouye Desalination Project......Page 820
 Forecasting of Erosion and Debris Flow Processes for the Energy Supply and Transport Corridors of Georgia Using the Theory of Reliability and Risk......Page 828
 Probabilistic Dominance Application to the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta......Page 836
 Capacity Planning under Nonstationary Uncertainties......Page 844
 A Hybrid Approach of Uncertainty Analysis for Performance Measurement of Water Distribution System......Page 851
 A New Approach of Risk Analysis for Complex Infrastructure Systems under Future Uncertainties: A Case of Urban Water Systems......Page 861
 Toward Guidance for Identifying and Measuring Structural Damage Following a Blast Event......Page 872
 Expected Building Damage Using Stratified Systematic Sampling of Failure Triggering Events......Page 880
 Design of Supplemental Dampers for Seismic Risk Reduction of Isolated Bridges......Page 888
 Evaluating the Efficiency of Current Nonlinear Static Pushover Procedures on Estimating Torsion Effect for Asymmetric High-Rise Buildings......Page 896
 Analysis of Bridge Performance under the Combined Effect of Earthquake and Flood-Induced Scour......Page 904
 Uncertainty Modeling in Bridge Network Maintenance Optimization......Page 912
 Overcoming the Limitations of Traditional Model-Updating Approaches......Page 920
 Reliability Analysis of Mooring Dolphin Structures......Page 929
 Adaptive Reliability Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Bridges Using Nondestructive Testing......Page 937
 Modeling Long-Term Reliability of Vertical Barriers......Page 945
 Managing Biological Invasions under Severe Uncertainty: Light Brown Apple Moth in California......Page 953
 Robust Conservation Decision-Making......Page 960
 A New Approach of Decision Making under Uncertainty for Selecting a Robust Strategy: A Case of Water Pipes Failure......Page 968
 Robust Satisficing and the Probability of Survival......Page 978
 An Info-Gap Model to Examine the Robustness of Cost-Efficient Budget Allocations......Page 986
 Info-Gap Approach to Regression......Page 995
 Robust Resource Allocation: An Info-Gap Approach......Page 1003
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