Understanding Global Climate Change: Modelling the Climatic System and Human Impacts

Cover
Half Title
Title Page
Copyright Page
Table of Contents
Preface
Acknowledgements
Biography
Abbreviations
Chapter 1: The great global warming scare
	1.1 Climate change: The background
		1.1.1 The definition of climate
		1.1.2 The scale in time and space
		1.1.3 Chaos
		1.1.4 The causes of climate change
			1.1.4.1 Events that occur outside the earth
		1.1.5 Natural events on the earth
			1.1.5.1 Plate tectonics
			1.1.5.2 The cryosphere
			1.1.5.3 The lithosphere, volcanic eruptions
			1.1.5.4 Ocean circulation
			1.1.5.5 The biosphere
		1.1.6 Human activities
			1.1.6.1 Carbon dioxide CO 2
			1.1.6.2 Ozone
				1.1.6.2.1 Introduction
				1.1.6.2.2 Reasons for success in reaching international agreement in Montreal
				1.1.6.2.3 Ratification of the Montreal Protocol
			1.1.6.3 Development of land areas
			1.1.6.4 Other greenhouse gases
			1.1.6.5 Human activities and the greenhouse effect
	1.2 The emergence of the modern environmental movement (alias the green movement)
		1.2.1 Back to nature
		1.2.2 Acid rain
		1.2.3 The club of Rome, limits to growth, the Stockholm conference 1972, only one earth, blueprint for survival
		1.2.4 Cold war cooperation between East and West
		1.2.5 Some more conferences
		1.2.6 The intergovernmental panel on climate change
		1.2.7 Why we disagree about climate change ( Hulme 2009)
	1.3 Sustainability, Survival
		1.3.1 Introduction
		1.3.2 Limits to growth, the Club of Rome
		1.3.3 Defining sustainability
		1.3.4 Our way of life
		1.3.5 The end of fossil fuels and other minerals
		1.3.6 Can the party continue?
			1.3.6.1 Gas
			1.3.6.2 Coal
			1.3.6.3 Nuclear
			1.3.6.4 Renewables
			1.3.6.5 Hydropower and geothermal
			1.3.6.6 Wind
			1.3.6.7 Solar
			1.3.6.8 Biofuels
			1.3.6.9 Waves, tidal systems, etc
			1.3.6.10 Hydrogen and fuel cells
			1.3.6.11 Cement/Concrete
		1.3.7 Sustainable energy without the hot air
		1.3.8 Population
		1.3.9 The collapse of former civilisations
		1.3.10 Easter island
		1.3.11 Incomplete collapse: Example the end of the roman empire
		1.3.12 Current environmental threats
Chapter 2: The atmosphere
	2.1 Introduction
	2.2 Composition of the atmosphere
	2.3 The earth’s radiation budget
		2.3.1 Global energy flows
		2.3.2 Earth’s radiation budget and climate
	2.4 Optically active minor gaseous components
	2.5 Aerosols
		2.5.1 Natural and anthropogenic aerosols in the atmosphere
		2.5.2 Aerosol optical properties
		2.5.3 Sulphate aerosols
		2.5.4 The spatial and temporal distribution of aerosols
	2.6 Clouds
		2.6.1 Formation of clouds
		2.6.2 Types of clouds
		2.6.3 Cloudiness and radiation
Chapter 3: The hydrosphere
	3.1 Introduction
	3.2 The hydrological cycle
	3.3 The oceans
		3.3.1 The thermohaline circulation
		3.3.2 Studies of heat and water balances in the world’s oceans
		3.3.3 Nonlinearities in oceans and climate feedbacks
	3.4 The lakes
	3.5 The rivers
	3.6 Case-studies of hydrological applications
		3.6.1 Modelling the state of the Okhotsk Sea ecosystems
			3.6.1.1 The Aral Sea
			3.6.1.2 The future of the Aral Sea
			3.6.1.3 The water balance of the Aral Sea, a new recovery scenario
			3.6.1.4 Other threatened seas
Chapter 4: The biosphere, lithosphere, and cryosphere
	4.1 Background
	4.2 The biosphere
		4.2.1 The cumulative carbon transfers since the industrial revolution
		4.2.2 The carbon cycle: annual data
	4.3 The lithosphere
	4.4 The cryosphere
		4.4.1 The Arctic and the Antarctic
		4.4.2 Glaciers
		4.4.3 Observations of the cryosphere
		4.4.4 Thermal radiation and the snow cover: exploration tools
Chapter 5: Energy, the driver of the climate system
	5.1 Energy
		5.1.1 Why discuss energy?
		5.1.2 Renewable energy
	5.2 A digression: What is energy?
	5.3 The green agenda and energy, Energiewende
	5.4 The curse of intermittency
	5.5 Nuclear energy and the generation of electricity
	5.6 Energy resources and the environment
	5.7 Decarbonisation potential in the global energy system
	5.8 Radioactive environmental contamination from nuclear energy
		5.8.1 Nuclear accidents
		5.8.2 Nuclear waste management
Chapter 6: Climate data, analysis, modelling
	6.1 Introduction
	6.2 Meteorological data
	6.3 Meteorological satellites
	6.4 Satellites and climate modelling
	6.5 The NASA Earth Observing System (EOS)
	6.6 Trace gases and pollutants
	6.7 Earth radiation budget, clouds, and aerosol
		6.7.1 The stratosphere
		6.7.2 The troposphere
	6.8 Volcanic eruptions
		6.8.1 The eruption of circa AD 535-6
		6.8.2 Ice core records
		6.8.3 Radiocarbon dating
		6.8.4 Tree Rings
	6.9 Aerosols and climate
		6.9.1 Introduction
		6.9.2 Modelling aerosol properties
		6.9.3 Climatic impacts of aerosols
		6.9.4 Tropospheric aerosols
		6.9.5 Sulphate aerosols
		6.9.6 Stratospheric aerosols
	6.10 Remote sensing and volcanic eruptions
		6.10.1 Satellite observations
		6.10.2 Aircraft observations
		6.10.3 Balloon observations
		6.10.4 Surface observations
		6.10.5 Climatic consequences of the Mount Pinatubo eruption
	6.11 Paleoclimatology
		6.11.1 Desertification
		6.11.2 Land degradation
		6.11.3 The concepts of land cover and land use
		6.11.4 Palaeoclimatic information: catastrophic changes
	6.12 Models
		6.12.1 Weather forecast models
		6.12.2 Climate-forecast models
		6.12.3 The surface boundary conditions
		6.12.4 Feedback mechanisms
		6.12.5 The use of general: circulation models
	6.13 Carbon dioxide and climate
		6.13.1 Numerical modelling for CO 2 increase
Chapter 7: The IPCC and its recommendations
	7.1 Introduction
	7.2 Soviet climatology in the second half of the 20th century
		7.2.1 The cold war period
		7.2.2 Soviet climate change dialogue with the West
		7.2.3 US-USSR climate science collaboration
		7.2.4 Soviet involvement in the activities of the WMO and IPCC
		7.2.5 The distinctive soviet contribution
	7.3 The IPCC reports
		7.3.1 Background
		7.3.2 Why are the IPCC assessments so important?
		7.3.3 The IPCC first assessment
		7.3.4 The second and subsequent assessment reports
			7.3.4.1 Concerns about the IPCC’s climate models
			7.3.4.2 Political manipulation
			7.3.4.3 Himalayan glaciers
		7.3.5 Predicted consequences of climate change
			7.3.5.1 Sea-level rise
			7.3.5.2 Freshwater resources
			7.3.5.3 Desertification
			7.3.5.4 Agriculture and food supply
			7.3.5.5 Natural ecosystems
			7.3.5.6 Impact on human health
			7.3.5.7 Costs
			7.3.5.8 Consensus and Validation
	7.4 The concept of global ecology
	7.5 Academician Kirill Kondratyev and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
	7.6 The UNFCCC and the kyoto protocol
	7.7 Climate predictions
	7.8 Cooling off on global warming
		7.8.1 The soviet climatologists
		7.8.2 Human-induced global warming sceptics
		7.8.3 How do we define mean global (or global mean) temperature?
	7.9 The Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC)
		7.9.1 The origins of the NIPCC
		7.9.2 The NIPCC report of 2008
			7.9.2.1 No consensus
			7.9.2.2 Why scientists disagree
			7.9.2.3 Scientific method vs. political science
			7.9.2.4 Flawed projections
			7.9.2.5 False postulates
			7.9.2.6 Unreliable circumstantial evidence
			7.9.2.7 Policy implications
	7.10 Politics, Margaret Thatcher and James Hansen
	7.11 The green movement and human-induced global warming
	7.12 Consensus
		7.12.1 Scientific consensus
		7.12.2 Surveys allegedly supporting consensus
		7.12.3 Evidence of lack of consensus
			7.12.3.1 Controversies
			7.12.3.2 Climate impacts
			7.12.3.3 Why scientists disagree
			7.12.3.4 Appeals to consensus
	7.13 Climate models, C.P., SCC, and IAMs
		7.13.1 C.P. or ceteris paribus
		7.13.2 SCC, the social cost of carbon, carbon tax
Chapter 8: Climate change: Energy resources–nuclear accidents
	8.1 Background
	8.2 Nuclear war and climate
	8.3 Nuclear energy, nuclear winter
		8.3.1 Nuclear energy
		8.3.2 Nuclear winter
	8.4 The big mistake surrounding the IPCC and the UNFCCC
		8.4.1 The Montreal Protocol and the Kyoto Protocol
		8.4.2 The United Nations and the Montreal: Kyoto Protocols
	8.5 What can I do?
		8.5.1 The Anthropocene
		8.5.2 Greta Thunberg; extinction rebellion
		8.5.3 Aims
		8.5.4 Principles
	8.6 Sustainability
		8.6.1 The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
	8.7 The World’s most dangerous animal
	8.8 Economic growth is not our salvation
	8.9 Recent additions to the climate change literature
	8.10 A new tool for environmental risk assessment: the natural time analysis
References
Index