Ukraine Vis-à-Vis Russia and the EU. Misperceptions of Foreign Challenges in Times of War, 2014–2015

Foreword by Paul D\'Anieri
Acknowledgements
Introduction
1 Framing the analysis: A review of key scholarship and a
proposal for a game theory-based framework
	Introduction
	1.1. The conflict in Ukraine within a broader theoretical
perspective
		1.1.1. The EU-Ukraine-Russia relations
		1.1.2. The armed conflict in Ukraine
	1.2. Foreign policy decision-making through a game
theoretical toolkit: Information, trust, payoffs, and
resources
		1.2.1. The role of information in foreign policy
decision-making
		1.2.2. Trust in interstate relations
		1.2.3. Analysis of payoffs in international
interactions
		1.2.4. The importance of resources in international
relations
	Conclusion
2 A backward look: Ukraine’s relations with the European
Union and Russia in 1991-2014
	Introduction
	2.1. Ukraine’s independence and its foreign policy in
1991-2004
		2.1.1. International recognition and territorial disputes
with Russia
		2.1.2. Integration options for Ukraine
		2.1.3. The impact of Ukraine’s domestic situation
on its foreign policy
	2.2. The EU-Ukraine-Russia relations after the Orange
Revolution
		2.2.1. Post-revolution expectations and challenges
		2.2.2. The failures of the Yushchenko presidency
	2.3. The Yanukovych regime and its fall (2010-2014)
		2.3.1. The bargaining between East and West
		2.3.2. Euromaidan
	Conclusion
3 Crimean Blitzkrieg (21st February – 26th March 2014)
	Introduction
	3.1. Information: The problem of a knowledge vacuum
	3.2. Trust in international law
	3.3. Miscalculation of payoffs
	3.4. Low awareness of resources
	Conclusion
4 Donbas on fire: Improvement of Ukraine’s
crisis management (April – August 2014)
	Introduction
	4.1. Information: Partial mprovement
	4.2. Trust: Gradual decrease
	4.3. Payoffs: Limited awareness
	4.4. Resources: Development of Ukraine’s resources and
learning about those of others
	Conclusion
5 Efforts in reaching peace: The post-Minsk crystallised
image (5th September 2014 – 12th February 2015)
	Introduction
	5.1. Information: Good awareness
	5.2. Erosion of trust
	5.3. Payoffs: ‘Eyes wide open’
	5.4. Resources: Good awareness
	Conclusion
Conclusions
	Introduction
	Theoretical and methodological contribution
		Theoretical contribution
		Methodological contribution
	Empirical findings
		Information about interlocutors’ preferences
		Trust in interlocutors’ signals
		The payoff structure
		Resources
	Broader implications
		The role of the US in the armed conflict
		The EU as a foreign policy actor
		The role of Russia in Europe
		Lessons for Ukraine’s foreign policy
Epilogue: Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022
	Information: The same underestimation of Russia’s
commitment to fight
	Trust: Disbelief of Russia’s brutality
	Payoffs: Destroyed status quo
	Resources: International anti-Russian coalition
Annex 1. Interview guide
Annex 2. Changes in Ukrainian leaders’ decision-making in
relations with Russia and the EU in February 2014 - February
2015
List of interviews
Bibliography