Turning point: an end to the growth paradigm

Cover......Page 1
Half Title......Page 3
Copyright......Page 4
Title......Page 5
Contents......Page 7
List of Tables, Figures and Boxes......Page 15
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations......Page 18
Preface......Page 22
 Introduction to Forecasting......Page 30
 Contingent Trend Extrapolations......Page 33
 Cycles......Page 35
 Discontinuities......Page 38
 Enduring Long-Term Trends......Page 45
 Implications......Page 48
 Notes......Page 49
 Irreversible Trends as Causal Agents......Page 53
 Demographic Drivers......Page 55
 Technological Drivers......Page 61
 Economic Drivers......Page 71
 Globalization: Cause or Effect?......Page 81
 Implications......Page 84
 Notes......Page 86
 Background......Page 88
 Debts and Deficits......Page 90
 Why Growth Will (Almost Certainly) Lag......Page 99
 The Squeeze......Page 106
 Debt and Public Policy......Page 111
 The Final Solution — Inflation?......Page 122
 Summary and Implications......Page 126
 Notes......Page 130
 Introduction......Page 135
 Russia......Page 136
 China......Page 142
 India......Page 155
 Islam......Page 156
 Summary and Implications......Page 160
 Notes......Page 161
 What Is Progress?......Page 164
 Causes and Effects......Page 170
 Other Sources of Technical Progress......Page 173
 Why the US Is the Technology Leader......Page 177
 Growth Contra Technological Progress?......Page 179
 Is Technological Change Necessarily Growth Friendly?......Page 184
 Technology and Growth: Standard Theory......Page 194
 Summary and Implications......Page 198
 Notes......Page 201
 Introduction......Page 204
 What Does the Evidence Show?......Page 205
 Indirect Wage Impacts of Trade......Page 211
 How To Preserve a Trade Surplus Without Really Competing......Page 220
 Is Job Training the Panacea?......Page 226
 Summary and Implications......Page 228
 Notes......Page 230
 Introduction......Page 233
 The Growth Debate Revisited......Page 234
 Growth Addiction......Page 236
 Growth or Welfare?......Page 242
 The Problem of Measurement......Page 244
 Notes......Page 259
 Equity Versus Efficiency......Page 262
 Who Benefits from Growth?......Page 265
 Causes and Excuses......Page 268
 Statistics on Wealth......Page 279
 Social Pathology......Page 282
 Rich and Poor in the Developing World......Page 283
 Intergenerational Equity......Page 292
 Social Crisis......Page 295
 Notes......Page 299
 Background......Page 303
 Sustainability Versus Unsustainability......Page 305
 The Environment/Development Dilemma......Page 314
 The Sharp End: Pollution, Depletion, Health and Wealth......Page 322
 The Role of Markets......Page 326
 Summary and Implications......Page 331
 Notes......Page 334
 Introduction......Page 338
 Eco-Restructuring as a Strategy......Page 339
 Narrowing the Issues......Page 342
 Limits to Recycling?......Page 346
 Energy Conservation: Are There Limits?......Page 348
 What About the Automobile?......Page 353
 Double Dividends......Page 356
 Summary and Implications......Page 361
 Notes......Page 363
 Optimal Taxes......Page 367
 Tax/Subsidy Reform......Page 373
 Welfare Reform and Exchangeable Quotas......Page 384
 Trade Reform......Page 391
 Regulatory Reform......Page 395
 Science and Technology......Page 399
 Summary and Implications......Page 400
 Notes......Page 402
 Introduction......Page 406
 What Can the North Do To Assist the South?......Page 407
 A New Approach to Sustainable Development......Page 410
 The Global Environment......Page 414
 Notes......Page 416
 Background......Page 418
 The State of Macro Theory......Page 420
 Problems with the Theory......Page 426
 Sources of Technological Progress......Page 431
 Resources as Factors of Production......Page 434
 Theory Versus Current Policy Proposals......Page 438
 In Conclusion......Page 446
 Notes......Page 450
 Background......Page 457
 The Implications of Standard Theory......Page 459
 Comparative Advantage Versus Competitive Advantage......Page 467
 Trade Deficits and the Accounting Balance......Page 474
 Trade and Economic Growth......Page 480
 The Absent Time Dimension......Page 482
 Concluding Comments......Page 487
 Notes......Page 491
 Background......Page 496
 The Inadequacy of Market Measures of Wealth......Page 497
 Measuring Human Capital......Page 507
 Implications of Increasing Inequity......Page 516
 Environmental Wealth......Page 517
 Conclusions......Page 523
 Notes......Page 524
APPENDIX: Monetary Flows and Conservation of Money......Page 527
BIBLIOGRAPHY......Page 534
INDEX......Page 554