The Turkish Economy in Crisis: Critical Perspectives on the 2000-1 Crises

Book Cover......Page 1
Half-Title......Page 2
Title......Page 4
Copyright......Page 5
Contents......Page 6
Preface......Page 8
1 Domestic Politics versus Global Dynamics:Towards a Political Economy of the 2000 and 2001 Financial Crises in Turkey......Page 9
PREMATURE CAPITAL ACCOUNT LIBERALIZATION AND THE DEBT TRAP: THE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL BACKGROUND TO THE TWIN CRISES......Page 14
 THE CRISES OF NOVEMBER 2000 AND FEBRUARY 2001: INTERNAL DYNAMICS AND SYSTEMIC INFLUENCES......Page 16
LOOKING BEYOND FEBRUARY 2001: THE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES OF THE CRISES......Page 22
OVERCOMING THE LOW GROWTH-HIGH INEQUALITY SYNDROME: THE CHALLENGES AHEAD AND THE NEED FOR A LONG-TERM STRATEGY......Page 26
THE NEED FOR A PERMANENT EXTERNAL ANCHOR: POLITICAL ECONOMY AND THE SIGNIFICANCE OF EU MEMBERSHIP......Page 31
CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS......Page 32
NOTES......Page 33
2 The Lost Gamble:The 2000 and 2001 Turkish Financial Crises in Comparative Perspective......Page 39
BANKING FRAGILITY, FINANCIAL PANIC, AND CURRENCY COLLAPSE: ANALYTICAL CONSIDERATIONS......Page 40
FROM FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION TO EXTERNAL ILLIQUIDITY......Page 43
Turkey’s Stabilization Program and Rising Financial Vulnerability......Page 44
Unanticipated Nature of the Crisis......Page 48
Triggering Events......Page 50
The November Crisis......Page 52
The February Crisis......Page 54
CONCLUDING REMARKS......Page 55
NOTES......Page 56
3 On the Structural Weaknesses of the post-1999 Turkish Disinflation Program......Page 62
THE LIQUIDITY GENERATION MECHANISM UNDER THE DISINFLATION PROGRAM......Page 64
DEEPENING THE VULNERABILITY OF THE BANKING SYSTEM......Page 68
THE STRUCTURE OF FISCAL FRAGILITY AND THE BEHAVIOR OF INTEREST RATES......Page 70
CONCLUSIONS......Page 72
NOTES......Page 73
4 Domestic Needs for Foreign Finance and Exchange Rate Regime Choice in Developing Countries, with Special Reference to the Turkish Experience......Page 76
EXCHANGE RATE REGIME AND EXTERNAL DEBT DYNAMICS......Page 77
THE TURKISH EXPERIENCE......Page 85
THE ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS......Page 87
MONETARY POLICY UNDER A FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE REGIME......Page 94
CONCLUSIONS......Page 96
NOTES......Page 98
5 Economic Crisis as an Instigator of Distributional Conflict:The Turkish Case in 2001......Page 100
CONCEPTUAL AND STATISTICAL DIFFICULTIES......Page 101
Production......Page 104
The Labor Market......Page 106
Poverty and Income Distribution......Page 109
Inflation......Page 111
Social Sectors......Page 112
Other Effects......Page 114
 THE RESPONSE TO THE CRISIS......Page 115
The Turkish Government......Page 116
International Institutions......Page 117
Other Reactions: Organized Groups and Households......Page 118
PROSPECTS AND CONCLUSION......Page 120
NOTES......Page 123
6 Social Capital and Corruption during Times of Crisis: A Look at Turkish Firms during the Economic Crisis of 2001......Page 129
THEORETICAL BACKGROUND......Page 135
THE SURVEY......Page 139
Measures Used in the Analyses......Page 140
RAMIFICATIONS OF THE QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH......Page 145
NOTES......Page 151
7 Towards a Sustainable Debt Burden:Challenges Facing Turkey at the Turn of the New Millennium......Page 154
THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF THE GOVERNMENT BUDGET CONSTRAINT......Page 158
THE DYNAMICS OF SUSTAINABLE DEBT FINANCING......Page 161
THE CASE OF TURKEY......Page 163
CONCLUSIONS......Page 172
NOTES......Page 173
THE REGULATORY FRAMEWORK AND A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE SECTOR......Page 176
The Operating Environment......Page 180
The Road to Destruction......Page 183
Post-Crisis Outlook......Page 189
PROSPECTS......Page 190
NOTES......Page 192
9 Conclusion:The Broader Ramifications of Turkey’s Financial Crises......Page 194
NOTE......Page 200
Abstracts......Page 201
Notes on Contributors......Page 204
Index......Page 206