The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organisational Learning with Scenarios

The Sixth Sense Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios......Page 3
CONTENTS......Page 5
ABOUT THE AUTHORS......Page 12
Unknown Variables, Uncertain Future......Page 15
The Significance of Scenario Thinking......Page 16
Developing the Sixth Sense – the Approach to Scenario Thinking......Page 19
How this Book is Organized......Page 20
1. PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE......Page 25
Success and Failure are Inevitable......Page 26
Understanding success by understanding failure......Page 27
Explaining the Sharpbenders Research: Why Organizations Fail......Page 28
Sustaining Competitive Advantage – the Battle of Canon and Xerox......Page 33
Yahoo! – Competing in Fast-moving Markets......Page 37
Building a Colourful New Future Brick by Brick – the Story of Lego......Page 40
Providing Customer Value – the Rise of Tetra Pak......Page 42
Entering New Markets and Maintaining Growth – Nokia Answers the Call......Page 46
Lessons Learned......Page 48
Creating Value – The Difference Between Success and Failure......Page 50
Summary: Understanding the Barriers to Scenario Planning......Page 51
2. HOW MANAGERS THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE......Page 55
Understanding Management Thinking......Page 56
Routines in Management Thinking......Page 57
Over-reliance on Routines: Success Formulas and Managerial Thinking......Page 58
The Relevance of Framing Flaws......Page 60
How a Failed Product Launch Actually Boosted Sales: the Sparkle of New Coke......Page 61
Confirmation Bias......Page 64
Hindsight Bias......Page 65
The Problem of Overconfidence......Page 66
The Limitations of Judgemental Forecasting......Page 67
Escalation of Commitment......Page 68
Bolstering, Procrastination and Buck-Passing......Page 71
Example of a Management Team Facing a Decision Dilemma......Page 72
Thinking Flaws: A Synthesis......Page 75
Scenarios Focus on Key Uncertainties and Certainties About the Future......Page 77
Scenarios Help Identify Information to Anticipate How the Future will Unfold......Page 78
Summary Checklist – the Limits to Managerial Thinking......Page 79
3. HOW ORGANIZATIONS THINK ABOUT THE FUTURE......Page 83
Flaws in Organizational Thinking......Page 84
Communication Difficulties......Page 85
Group-think in Organizations......Page 86
Fragmentation in Organizations......Page 87
Balancing Change and Constancy......Page 89
Overcoming the Limits of Organizational Identity: the Example of IBM......Page 91
Understanding Organizational Lock-in......Page 92
The Consequences of Organizational Feedback Loops and Lock-in......Page 93
Learning and Action......Page 94
An Organizational Dilemma......Page 95
Management and Action......Page 96
Using Organizational Processes......Page 98
Summary: How Organizations Think About the Future......Page 99
4. THE IMPACT OF CULTURE AND CULTURAL ASSUMPTIONS ON STRATEGY......Page 103
Understanding the Impact of Cultural Issues......Page 104
The Significance to Strategy of Globalization and Cultural Issues......Page 105
From Mickey Mouse to The Lion King: the Tale of Disney in France......Page 106
Recognizing Differences in Others......Page 110
The Value of Scenarios in Assessing the Impact of Cultural Factors......Page 111
Global Organizations and Local Service Offerings: IKEA Shelve Their Universal Approach......Page 112
How Can We Explore Differences in National Cultures?......Page 114
A Clash of Personality: The Merger of Daimler-Benz and Chrysler......Page 117
Organizational Culture and the External Environment......Page 119
The Call of the Wild: How Varying Interpretations of Management Intent Divided Senior Executives in an ITC Business......Page 120
Understanding Cultures Across Boundaries......Page 122
Increasing Diversity in a World of Similarity......Page 123
Developing Multiple Perspectives......Page 124
Applying the Defining Factors of Organizational Culture to Your Organization......Page 125
Developing a Scenario Culture......Page 126
Key Questions......Page 128
5. SHAPING THE FUTURE: THE EMERGENCE OF MODERN SCENARIO TECHNIQUES......Page 131
Bringing the Future into the Present: The Story of Margareta Lonnberg......Page 132
Memories of the Future: Scenarios Filter What We Perceive......Page 133
Scenarios: A Cornerstone of Human Thought......Page 134
Uncertainty and Crisis......Page 135
War Game Preparations......Page 136
A Natural Scenario Planner: Field Marshal Lord Alanbrooke......Page 137
The Age of Forecasting and Systems Engineering......Page 138
The US Perspective......Page 139
The Rand Corporation: the Emergence of Scenario Techniques......Page 140
The Impact of Herman Kahn and the Hudson Institute......Page 141
The French Perspective......Page 142
The Club of Rome......Page 143
Royal Dutch/Shell and the Problem of Predictability......Page 145
The Development of Scenarios and Strategy During the 1980s......Page 148
Scenarios Become Popular......Page 149
Scenario Planning and Other Strategic Approaches......Page 150
The Age of Complexity, the Limits of Certainty – and the Rise of Scenario Planning......Page 152
Organizational Learning......Page 153
The World of Identity, Experience and Change......Page 154
Integration of Corporate Planning......Page 156
A Communications Tool......Page 157
Summary Checklist – Building an Understanding of Scenario Thinking in Your Organization......Page 158
6. DEVELOPING THE SKILLS FOR LONG-TERM SURVIVAL AND SUCCESS: PRINCIPLES OF THE SCENARIO PROCESS......Page 161
The Need for a Scenario Process......Page 162
Rationalistic Decision-making......Page 164
Cause and Effect Thinking......Page 167
Systems Thinking......Page 168
Mental Models and their Limitations......Page 172
The Strategic Conversation......Page 175
How Scenarios Tackle the Problems of Organizational Thinking......Page 176
Surfacing Mental Models......Page 177
Eliciting the Agenda......Page 178
Activating and Integrating Intuitive Knowledge......Page 180
Analysing Driving Forces......Page 183
Scenario Telling......Page 184
Organizational Learning......Page 185
The Process of Organizational Learning......Page 186
Scenario Planning as a Way Towards Adaptive Organizational Learning......Page 188
Memories of the Future – Creating the Jolt......Page 189
From Scenarios to Adaptive Behaviour......Page 192
Making it Happen......Page 194
Summary: Developing the Skills of Survival......Page 198
7. SCENARIO PLANNING IN THE ORGANIZATIONAL CONTEXT......Page 201
Introducing the Scenario Method......Page 202
Background......Page 204
The Story of the ‘People’s Kailyard'......Page 205
Identifying Knowledge Gaps......Page 206
Building the Scenario Team......Page 207
Timing for the Scenario Project......Page 208
Interviewing Key Players and Widening the Conversation......Page 209
Setting the Scenario Agenda......Page 213
Setting the Scenario Agenda: the Northshire Example......Page 214
The Role of the Remarkable Person......Page 215
Determining the Driving Forces and Testing the Outcomes......Page 216
Clustering the Driving Forces: the Northshire Example......Page 218
Dealing with Impact and Uncertainty......Page 220
Scoping the Scenarios......Page 223
Setting the ‘Limits of Possibility’ for Alternative Futures: the Northshire Example......Page 224
Fleshing out the Storylines......Page 227
Beyond the Kailyard......Page 229
Stage 4: Stakeholder Analysis......Page 230
Stage 5: Systems Thinking......Page 233
Identifying the Early Indicators......Page 234
Action Planning from the Future to the Present: the Northshire Example......Page 235
Summary: Effective Scenario Planning......Page 237
Summary Checklist – Implementing a Scenario Planning Process......Page 238
8. SCENARIO PLANNING: TAKING CHARGE OF THE FUTURE......Page 243
The Energetic Problem Solver......Page 244
Observation – the Cornerstone of Strategic Success......Page 245
Purposeful Scenario Work......Page 246
The Analytical Approach......Page 248
The Limitations of Analysis......Page 249
Combining Intuition with Rational Analysis: the Iterative Scenario Approach......Page 250
Facing the Important Questions......Page 252
The Stakeholder Game......Page 253
Strategic Aims......Page 254
The Business Idea......Page 256
Friction Forces and Barriers to Entry......Page 258
Developing Distinctiveness......Page 260
The Role of the Business Idea in Strategy......Page 261
Business Ideas and Scenarios......Page 264
The Strategic Journey......Page 266
Multiple World Views – The Limits of the Rationalistic Approach......Page 269
The Mont Fleur Story......Page 272
The Role of Scenarios in Strategic Conversation......Page 274
Creating the Scenario-based Strategic Conversation......Page 278
The Strategic Journey of Project 2 Revisited......Page 280
What is Adaptive Organizational Learning?......Page 282
Building a Scenario Culture......Page 284
Team Empowerment......Page 286
The Across-team Strategic Conversation......Page 287
Rethinking the Future -- the Value of Scenarios in Developing Competitive Advantage......Page 290
Developing The Sixth Sense......Page 291
GLOSSARY......Page 293
REFERENCES......Page 307
INDEX......Page 313