The Security of the Caspian Sea Region (A Sipri Publication)

Contents......Page 5
Preface......Page 11
Acknowledgements......Page 14
Acronyms and abbreviations......Page 15
I. The changing Caspian security environment......Page 17
III. The structure of this volume......Page 23
Figure 1.1. Map of the Caspian Sea region......Page 22
Part I......Page 25
I. Introduction......Page 27
II. The Russian factor in the Caspian region......Page 29
III. International engagement......Page 32
IV. The energy field—parallel systems evolving?......Page 38
V. The security field—parallel systems evolving?......Page 42
VI. Prospects for the future......Page 46
I. The energy reserves and production potential of the Caspian......Page 49
II. Caspian pipelines: the carriage of Caspian oil and gas to market......Page 60
III. The Caspian Sea legal regime......Page 80
IV. The Turkish Straits issue......Page 83
Figure 3.1. Caspian oil and gas pipelines, existing and proposed......Page 62
I. Introduction......Page 85
II. Threats to the Caspian’s biological resources......Page 86
III. Environmental problems......Page 90
IV. Future scenarios......Page 96
Table 4.1. Sturgeon catches in the Caspian Basin......Page 88
I. Introduction......Page 99
Table 5.2. Military expenditure in the Caspian Sea region, in US dollars, 1995–2000......Page 101
III. The South Caucasus......Page 104
IV. Central Asia......Page 113
V. Multilateral security cooperation......Page 127
VI. Conclusions......Page 130
Table 5.1. Military expenditure in the Caspian Sea region, in local currencies, 1995–2000......Page 100
Table 5.3. Military expenditure as a percentage of gross domestic product, 1995–2000......Page 102
Part II......Page 133
II. The southern direction of Russia’s national security......Page 135
III. Russia’s interests......Page 136
IV. Will the Caspian come to rival the Persian Gulf?......Page 139
V. Is there a conflict of interests between Russia and the USA?......Page 142
VI. Oil, development and security......Page 144
VII. Russia’s Caspian policy becomes more active......Page 148
I. Introduction: the underpinning of US policy towards the Caspian......Page 152
II. Oil as a driving factor: myths and realities......Page 156
III. Natural gas: equal export troubles for US policy......Page 160
IV. US strategic interests: what is at stake?......Page 161
VI. US policy change expected......Page 163
VII. Conclusions......Page 165
I. Introduction......Page 167
II. Energy and the economy......Page 168
III. The environmental risks of oil transport......Page 170
IV. The geopolitics of pipelines......Page 172
V. Cooperation with Russia......Page 175
VI. Multilateralism and Western orientation......Page 177
VII. Turkey’s internal and external constraints......Page 179
VIII. Conclusions: future trends......Page 180
I. Introduction......Page 182
II. The legal status of the Caspian Sea......Page 185
III. Oil and gas transport routes......Page 187
IV. Iran’s policy in the Caspian region......Page 189
I. Introduction......Page 194
II. Strengthening political and economic relations with the West......Page 195
III. The policy of balanced relations with Russia, Turkey and Iran......Page 198
IV. The delimitation of sea frontiers on the Caspian Sea......Page 204
V. A diversified system of oil and gas pipelines......Page 206
VI. Conclusions......Page 210
I. Introduction......Page 211
II. Recent political developments......Page 213
III. Georgian foreign policy......Page 216
IV. Georgia, Russia and the West......Page 219
V. Georgia’s choice......Page 224
VI. Conclusions......Page 227
I. The concept of national security......Page 228
II. The development of a new balance of forces......Page 231
III. Social and economic reforms in Kazakhstan as a precondition of its national security......Page 236
IV. New challenges and new approaches......Page 242
Table 12.1. Immigration to and emigration from Kazakhstan......Page 239
II. The role of energy resources in the political and economic security of Turkmenistan......Page 247
III. The major competitors and partners of Turkmenistan......Page 250
IV. The trans-Caspian gas pipeline......Page 252
V. Existing pipelines......Page 254
VI. The legal status of the Caspian Sea......Page 257
VII. Conclusions......Page 258
I. Introduction......Page 260
II. The neutrality concept......Page 261
III. The Taliban connection......Page 262
IV. The reality of Turkmenistan’s neutrality......Page 268
Part III......Page 271
I. Introduction......Page 273
II. The positions of the contending parties......Page 275
III. The positions of the regional countries......Page 280
IV. The stand of the Western countries......Page 287
V. Attempts at mediation......Page 289
VI. The danger of armed conflict......Page 291
VII. Scenarios for conflict resolution......Page 293
VIII. Conclusions......Page 295
I. Introduction......Page 297
II. The post-war situation......Page 302
III. The position of Russia......Page 306
IV. The position of the West......Page 308
V. Conclusions......Page 310
I. Introduction......Page 311
II. The influence of Islam on events in Chechnya......Page 312
III. The aims of the Chechen leaders in appealing to Islam......Page 314
IV. The failure of the ‘Salafite project’......Page 320
V. External influences......Page 324
I. Introduction......Page 327
II. Threats to security......Page 329
III. The future of security relations in Central Asia......Page 334
Part IV......Page 339
II. The regional states......Page 341
III. Non-regional actors......Page 347
IV. Global powers......Page 352
V. Russian–US interaction in the Caspian region......Page 357
Appendix. Chronology of defence and security-related declarations and agreements involving the countries of the Caspian region, 1991–2001......Page 361
About the authors......Page 374
Index......Page 377