The science and politics of global climate change: a guide to the debate

Cover......Page 1
Half-title......Page 3
Title......Page 5
Copyright......Page 6
Contents......Page 7
Preface......Page 9
1 Global climate change: a new type of environmental problem......Page 13
1.1 Background on climate and climate change......Page 18
1.2 Background on climate-change policy......Page 24
1.3 Plan of the book......Page 28
2 Science, politics, and science in politics......Page 30
2.1 Justifications for action: positive statements and normative statements......Page 31
2.2 How science works......Page 35
An example: the discovery and explanation of the Antarctic ozone hole......Page 44
2.3 Politics and policy debates......Page 46
2.4 When science and politics meet......Page 50
2.5 Limiting the damage: the role of scientific assessments......Page 53
Further reading for Chapter 2......Page 57
3.1 Is the climate changing?......Page 59
3.1.1 The surface thermometer record......Page 60
3.1.2 The glacier record......Page 63
3.1.3 Sea level......Page 65
3.1.4 Sea ice......Page 66
3.1.5 Sub-surface ocean temperatures......Page 67
Tree rings......Page 68
Ice cores......Page 69
Boreholes......Page 71
A combined proxy climate record......Page 73
3.1.7 Satellite temperature measurements......Page 74
3.1.8 Summary: is the Earth warming?......Page 76
3.1.9 What is NOT evidence that the Earth is warming......Page 77
3.2 Are human activities responsible for global warming?......Page 78
3.2.1 Orbital variations......Page 79
3.2.2 Tectonic activity......Page 80
3.2.4 Solar variability......Page 81
3.2.5 Internal variability......Page 82
3.2.7 Summary: are human activities responsible for recent warming?......Page 85
3.3 What future changes can we expect? Predicting climate change over the twentyfirst century......Page 88
3.4 What will the impacts of climate change be?......Page 93
3.5 Conclusions......Page 99
Further reading for Chapter 3......Page 100
4 The climate-change policy debate: impacts and potential responses......Page 102
4.1.1 Defining and assessing the impacts of climate change......Page 103
4.1.2 Responses to enhance adaptation......Page 107
4.2.1 Emission trends and projections......Page 108
4.2.2 Factors underlying emission trends......Page 113
4.2.3 Technological options to reduce emissions......Page 114
4.2.4 National policy responses......Page 118
4.2.5 International policy responses......Page 122
The form of national commitments......Page 123
Implementation and review......Page 127
Sequencing of commitments......Page 128
4.3 Putting it together: balancing benefits and costs of mitigation and adaptation......Page 129
4.3.1 Estimates of the cost of mitigation......Page 130
4.3.2 Estimates of the cost of adaptation and climate-change impacts......Page 132
4.3.3 Integrated assessment of climate-change adaptation and mitigation......Page 133
4.4 A third class of response: geoengineering......Page 135
4.5 Conclusion: policy choices under uncertainty......Page 136
Further reading for Chapter 4......Page 137
5.1 Climate-change politics: present positions......Page 140
5.2 Climate-change politics: the arguments against action......Page 143
5.3.1 Major claims of the “climate skeptics”......Page 147
Skeptics’ Claim 1. The Earth is not warming......Page 148
Skeptics’ Claim 2. The Earth may be warming, but human activities are not responsible......Page 150
Skeptics’ Claim 3. Future climate warming will almost certainly be very small......Page 152
5.3.2 Defending the boundary between scientific and policy debates: scientific assessment and policy skepticism......Page 156
5.3.3 Uncertainty and “sound science”......Page 162
5.4 So what should be done? Major choices and elements of an effective response......Page 166
5.4.1 Long-term goals......Page 167
5.4.2 Near-term actions......Page 170
5.4.3 A political strategy......Page 174
5.4.4 Adjusting responses over time......Page 186
5.5 Conclusion......Page 187
Further reading for Chapter 5......Page 189
A1 Present value and discounting......Page 192
A3 A quantitative example of emissions permit trading......Page 193
Glossary......Page 195
References......Page 198
Index......Page 201