The Post-American Middle East: How the World Changed Where the War on Terror Failed

Preface
Contents
List of Contributors
List of Figures
List of Tables
1 Introduction
	Why This Book?
	A New Era
	9/11/2001 and the War on Terror
	Structure of This Book
	References
Part I War, Expanding Chaos & Failed State-Building Across the Middle East
2 Afghanistan Since 2001: US Geostrategic Ambitions, a Failed State, and the Return of the Taliban
	Afghanistan: Why Did Nothing Go as Planned?
		“To War, Not to Court”. 9/11 and the Rush to War
			First US Strikes, Capture of Kabul by the Northern Alliance, Bin Laden Disappears
	The Social and “Liberal” War in Afghanistan: Creating a Society via Military Power?
		2002–2010: State-Building, Society-Building: How to “Liberalize” Afghan Society?
		2010–2011. The Battle of Marjah: The Victory of the Generals?
		2011–2021. Leaving Afghanistan (The Least Damaging Way Possible)
	The Institutionalization of Instability: The Afghan State Since 2001
		Back to the Bonn Legacy: Depoliticizing State Reforms, Overlooking Elite Politics
		The Puzzle of State Capacity—State Failure
		International Donors: Centralizing the State—Bypassing the State
		From State Failure to Regime Illegitimacy: Democratic Disenchantment
			Democratic Ambitions in Absence of Elite Settlement
			The Failure of Electoral Democracy
		Accounting for the Resurgence of the Taliban Movement
			Re-Anchoring the Taliban Phenomenon in State-Society Relations
			Overtaking the State, Acting Like a State
	Conclusion
3 Iraq 2003–2007, Geopolitics of an Imperial Democratization
	Introduction: Debating American Imperialism in Iraq (2003–2007)
	Going to Iraq (2001–2002)
		Changing the Rationale of War and the Neoconservative Influence
		How to Define the American Empire?
	Acknowledging the Empire
	A New Imperial Discourse of Concrete Actions on the Ground—Not Just a Moral Discourse
	From the Ideological “Imperial Project” (2001) to the “Imperial Moment” on the Ground in Iraq (2003)
		Was (Also) the Invasion of Iraq a War for Oil?
		Why the Invasion: The Main Categories of Classical Explanations Are Insufficient in the Case of Iraq
		Firdos Square, Baghdad, April 9, 2003: The “Benevolent Empire” on the Ground
	The Failure of the Imperial Moment in Iraq: Social Collapse (2003), the Battle of Fallujah (2004), and the Final Surge as the End of the American Moment (2007)
		2003–2004: Social, Economic, and Political Collapse in Occupied Iraq
		The Battle for Fallujah (2004): Regaining Control by Stabilizing the “Sunni Triangle”
		“The Surge” (2007): The End of the American Imperial Moment in Iraq
	Conclusion: On the “Impotence of Power” or Powerlessness of Power in the Middle East
4 The Quasi-Legal Foundations of Rebel Oil Governance: The Case of the Houthis in Yemen
	Introduction
		The Crimi-Legal Logics of Rebel Oil Governance
		Oil and Houthi Rule in Northern Yemen
		Conclusion
	References
5 Wars Against Terror in Oil Lands, Russian Interventions, and Chinese Energy Policies: The Case of Northern Iraq and Syria
	Introduction
		The Fragile Context of Syria, from Small Oil Exporter to Energy Pauper
		The Iraqi Oil, Grand Geopolitics and Production Challenges
	The Failed 2003 Liberation of Iraq’s Oil
		China’s Energy Policies, Foreign Infrastructure Development, and Implications for Iraq
	Scenario Analysis and Framework
	Results of the Energy Scenarios Analysis
	Conclusion
	Bibliography
Part II Indirect Consequences of the War on Terror and Legacy
6 Violence, Political Instabilities and Large-Scale Migrations in the MENA Region: Libyan, Syrian, and Yemeni Cases in Regional Perspective
	Introduction
	I—The Multiple Push Factors Behind MENA Migrations
	Violence and Political Legacy of the War on Terror
	II—Effects of the Migration Policies of the EU, Turkey, and the Gulf States on Migrations from Libya, Syria, and Yemen
	From European Dream to EU Policing
	Mass Migrations and EU—Turkey Relations
	EU-Libyan Engagement
	Criminalisation and the Fear of Radicalisation/Terrorism
	KSA and the Gulf States: Labour Migrations, No Refugees, and Forced Yemeni Returns
	The Case of Yemen and Saudi Arabia
	Conclusion
	References
7 Overcoming Jihadism in Arabia: Preventing Violent Extremism Policies in the Gulf Monarchies
	Introduction
	Setting the Context
	Preventing Violent Extremism (PVE) in the Literature
	Methodological Approach and Data Collected
	Policies and Institutions in the GCC
		The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
		The State of Qatar
		Kuwait
		The United Arab Emirates
		Bahrain
		The Sultanate of Oman
	Discussion and Findings
	Conclusion
	References
8 Trump and Netanyahu’s Failed Palestine Sell-Out: ‘A Hate Plan, Not a Peace Plan’
	Introduction
	Imperialistic Genealogy of the ‘Deal of the Century’
	‘A Significant Concession’
	‘Woe to the Vanquished’
	Mixed Reactions to the Deal
	Conclusion
9 Geopolitical Polarization, Natural Gas, and Regional Energy (Dis-)Integration in the Middle East and North Africa
	Introduction
	Demand, Cooperation, and Tensions Around Natural Gas in the Middle East and Beyond
		Regional Energy Cooperation, Integration, and Economic Benefits
		The Weaponization of Natural Gas
	East Mediterranean Gas, New Dynamics, and the Institutionalization of Tensions
		Geopolitical Background and the Role of Natural Gas in East-Med Tensions
	When Geopolitics Dictates Politics and Policies
		Escalations in Maritime and Diplomatic Disputes Over Gas Resources
			Turkey and Cyprus
			Israel and Lebanon
	Drivers of Tensions Surrounding Natural Gas in the Region
		The Demographic Factor and Boom in Regional Natural Gas Demand
		Non-mutually Agreed Operations and Pipeline Politics Exacerbate Old Tensions
		The Problematic Compositions of the New Gas Fora in a Period of US-Sponsored Polarization
		Duplication of a Gas Forum Despite Limited Reserves Among EMGF Member Countries
	Conclusion
	References
10 Conclusions
	The Four Why.s of the WOT Failure from a Middle East Perspective
	The Uncertain Post-American Middle East
	Joint Threat from China and Russia to the US Role in the Region
	New Priorities
	References
Annex A: Detailed Description of the Methodology for Chinese-Iraqi Energy Forecasting
First Scenario: The Energy Transition Scenario
Second Scenario: Energy Diversification of Suppliers
Diversification of Energy Supplier
Third Scenario: Business as Usual Scenario
Evaluation Matrix