The mathematics of natural catastrophes

Book Cover......Page 1
THE MATHEMATICS OF NATURAL CATASTROPHES......Page 2
CONTENTS......Page 6
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS......Page 10
PORTRAIT OF EDMOND HALLEY......Page 12
PROLOGUE CHAOS AND CATASTROPHE......Page 14
CHAPTER 1 A TAXONOMY OF NATURAL HAZARDS......Page 16
1.1  Causality and Association......Page 18
1.2  Extra-Terrestrial Hazards......Page 23
1.3  Meteorological Hazards......Page 25
1.4  Geological Hazards......Page 29
1.5  Geomorphic Hazards......Page 36
1.6  Hydrological Hazards......Page 41
1.7  References......Page 49
CHAPTER 2 A SENSE OF SCALE......Page 52
2.1  Size Scales of Natural Hazards......Page 53
2.2  Spatial Scales of Natural Hazards......Page 68
2.3  References......Page 78
CHAPTER 3 A MEASURE OF UNCERTAINTY......Page 80
3.1  The Concept of Probability......Page 81
3.2  The Meaning of Uncertainty......Page 84
3.3  Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty......Page 87
3.4  Probability Distributions......Page 93
3.5  Addition of Probability Density Functions......Page 102
3.6  References......Page 105
CHAPTER 4 A MATTER OF TIME......Page 106
4.1  Temporal Models of Natural Hazards......Page 109
4.2  Long-term Data Records......Page 118
4.3  Statistics of Extremes......Page 122
4.4  References......Page 126
CHAPTER 5 FORECASTING......Page 128
5.1  Verification......Page 132
5.2  Earthquake Indecision......Page 136
5.3  Volcanic Eruption Traits......Page 139
5.4  Tropical Cyclone Correlations......Page 142
5.5  Flood Flows......Page 147
5.6  References......Page 149
CHAPTER 6 DECIDING TO WARN......Page 152
6.1  Deterministic Expert Systems......Page 155
6.2  Uncertainty in Expert Systems......Page 159
6.3  Subjective Probability......Page 169
6.4  The Elicitation of Expert Judgement......Page 171
6.5  References......Page 180
CHAPTER 7 A QUESTION OF DESIGN......Page 182
7.1  Dynamic Defence Strategy......Page 183
7.2  Wind and Wave Offshore Design......Page 187
7.3  Earthquake Ground Motion......Page 190
7.4  Seismic Hazard Evaluation......Page 195
7.5  Earthquake Siting Decisions......Page 201
7.6  References......Page 206
CHAPTER 8 DAMAGE ESTIMATION......Page 208
8.1  Earthquakes......Page 210
8.2  Windstorms......Page 219
8.3  Floods......Page 224
8.4  Volcanic Eruptions......Page 227
8.5  References......Page 228
CHAPTER 9 CATASTROPHE COVER......Page 230
9.1  The Socio-Economic Dimension......Page 233
9.2  Principles of Insurance Pricing......Page 236
9.3  Quantification of Insurance Risk......Page 240
9.4  Simulating Multiple Futures......Page 249
9.5  References......Page 250
CHAPTER 10 FINANCIAL ISSUES......Page 252
10.1  Financial and Physical Crashes......Page 254
10.2  Catastrophe Bonds......Page 260
10.3  CAT Calls......Page 269
10.4  References......Page 272
CHAPTER 11 THE THIRD MILLENNIUM......Page 274
11.1  Natural Hazard Mortality......Page 275
11.2  Hazard Coupling with the Environment......Page 280
11.3  Computer Technology for Catastrophe Management......Page 284
11.4  The New Age......Page 286
11.5  References......Page 290
EPILOGUE THE TWILIGHT OF PROBABILITY......Page 292
NAME INDEX......Page 296
SUBJECT INDEX......Page 300