The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future

Martin Ford......Page 2
CONTENTS......Page 6
INTRODUCTION......Page 11
THE TUNNEL......Page 17
The Mass Market......Page 20
Visualizing the Mass Market......Page 21
Automation Comes to the Tunnel......Page 27
A Reality Check......Page 31
Summarizing......Page 34
ACCELERATION......Page 37
The Rich Get Richer......Page 38
World Computational Capability......Page 49
Grid and Cloud Computing......Page 51
Meltdown......Page 53
Diminishing Returns......Page 57
Offshoring and Drive-Through Banking......Page 64
Short Lived Jobs......Page 67
Traditional Jobs: The “Average” Lights in the Tunnel......Page 68
A Tale of Two Jobs......Page 73
“Software” Jobs and Artificial Intelligence......Page 77
Automation, Offshoring and Small Business......Page 84
“Hardware” Jobs and Robotics......Page 85
“Interface” Jobs......Page 90
The Next “Killer App”......Page 91
Military Robotics......Page 95
Robotics and Offshoring......Page 96
Nanotechnology and its Impact on Employment......Page 97
The Future of College Education......Page 100
Econometrics: Looking Backward......Page 103
The Luddite Fallacy......Page 105
A More Ambitious View of Future Technological Progress: The Singularity......Page 110
A War on Technology......Page 113
The Predictive Nature of Markets......Page 117
The 2008-2009 Recession......Page 120
Offshoring and Factory Migration......Page 123
Reconsidering Conventional Views about the Future......Page 125
The China Fallacy......Page 127
The Future of Manufacturing......Page 134
India and Offshoring......Page 137
Economic and National Security Implications for the United States......Page 138
Labor and Capital Intensive Industries: The Tipping Point......Page 141
The Average Worker and the Average Machine......Page 145
Capital Intensive Industries are “Free Riders”......Page 148
The Problem with Payroll Taxes......Page 150
The “Workerless” Payroll Tax......Page 152
“Progressive” Wage Deductions......Page 154
Defeating the Lobbyists......Page 156
A More Conventional View of the Future......Page 159
The Risk of Inaction......Page 162
TRANSITION......Page 166
The Basis of the Free Market Economy: Incentives......Page 168
Preserving the Market......Page 169
Recapturing Wages......Page 172
Unit Cost Breakdown for a Hypothetical Product or Service......Page 175
Positive Aspects of Jobs......Page 178
The Power of Inequality......Page 179
Where the Free Market Fails: Externalities......Page 180
Creating a Virtual Job......Page 182
Education......Page 183
Community and Civic Activities......Page 185
Journalism......Page 186
The Environment and other Externalities......Page 187
Setting the Incentives......Page 188
Smoothing the Business Cycle and Reducing Economic Risk......Page 189
The Market Economy of the Future......Page 190
An International View......Page 193
Transitioning to the New Model......Page 195
Keynesian Grandchildren......Page 199
Transition in the Tunnel......Page 202
THE GREEN LIGHT......Page 204
Attacking Poverty......Page 206
Energy, Land, Natural Resources and Environmental Impact......Page 211
Removing the Constraints......Page 212
The Evolution toward Consumption......Page 214
The Green Light......Page 217
APPENDIX / FINAL THOUGHTS......Page 219
Are the ideas presented in this book WRONG?   (Opposing arguments with responses)......Page 220
Two......Page 233
Where are we now? Four Possible Cases......Page 234
The Next 10-20 years: Some Indicators to Watch For......Page 237
New technology industries fail to create significant numbers of jobs......Page 240
Diminishing prospects for college graduates......Page 241
Systemic unemployment invades the economy......Page 242
Increasingly bad news for entitlement and retirement programs......Page 243
Continuing Instability in the Financial Markets......Page 244
Ugly and irrational political battles......Page 245
Outsmarting Marx......Page 247
The Technology Paradox......Page 249
Machine Intelligence and the Turing Test......Page 251
About / Contacting the Author......Page 256
NOTES......Page 257