The Increasing Risk of Floods and Tornadoes in Southern Africa (Sustainable Development Goals Series)

Peer Review Process
Preface
Acknowledgements
Contents
About the Contributors
Part I: Introduction and Background
	1: Contextualising the Increasing Risk of Floods and Tornadoes
		1.1	 Introduction and Background
		1.2	 The Increasing Risk of Floods
			1.2.1	 Why Is Flooding Risk Increasing
			1.2.2	 Flood Preparedness
		1.3	 Tornadoes: Trends and Distribution
			1.3.1	 The Meteorology of Tornadoes
			1.3.2	 The Trends of Tornadoes
			1.3.3	 Tornadoes and Climate Change
			1.3.4	 Risks Posed by Tornadoes
			1.3.5	 The Changing Character of Tornadoes
			1.3.6	 Building Resilience to Tornadoes
		1.4	 Materials and Methods Used in the Book
		1.5	 Book Outline
		References
Part II: Flood Modelling, Early Warning and Partnerships
	2: Satellite-Based Approaches in the Detection and Monitoring of Selected Hydrometeorological Disasters
		2.1	 Introduction
		2.2	 Literature Review
			2.2.1	 Heavy Rainfall Monitoring Tools
			2.2.2	 Flood Identification Tools
			2.2.3	 Characteristics of the Main Satellite Emergency Management Mechanisms
			2.2.4	 The Use of Optical Remote Sensing in Monitoring Flood Damage on Agriculture
		2.3	 Material and Methods
			2.3.1	 Heavy Rainfall Detection
			2.3.2	 Flood Detection
			2.3.3	 Satellite Emergency Mapping Mechanisms Response to Cyclones Idai and Kenneth
			2.3.4	 Analysis of Effects of Flooding Events on Agriculture
		2.4	 Results and Discussions
			2.4.1	 Heavy Rainfall Detection: The Case of Cyclones Kenneth and Idai
			2.4.2	 Flood Detection and Damage Assessment: Cyclones Kenneth and Idai Case Study
			2.4.3	 Damages to Vegetation
		2.5	 Conclusions
		References
	3: ICT Readiness for Flood Risk Reduction and Management: Lessons from Eastern Cape Province’s Port St Johns Municipality, South Africa
		3.1	 Introduction
		3.2	 Literature Review
			3.2.1	 Definition and Classification of Floods
			3.2.2	 The Need for Information on Flood Risk Reduction and Management
			3.2.3	 ICT in Flood Disaster Response
			3.2.4	 ICT in Flood Early Warning Systems
			3.2.5	 ICT Readiness in South Africa: With Comparison to Her BRICS Peers
		3.3	 Materials and Methods
		3.4	 Presentation of Key Findings and Discussions
			3.4.1	 Access to Electricity and Device Charging
			3.4.2	 Prevalence of ICT Devices for Flood Risk Reduction and Management in Port St Johns
			3.4.3	 Barriers to Effective Use of ICT for Flood Risk Reduction and Management
			3.4.4	 Communicating Evacuation Information During the Floods
		3.5	 Conclusion
		References
	4: A Reflection of Hydrological and Other Emerging Perspectives of Lake Kariba’s Operation Noah
		4.1	 Introduction
		4.2	 Literature Review
			4.2.1	 Kariba Dam Designs and Construction
			4.2.2	 Understanding Operation Noah
			4.2.3	 Social (In)Justice Matters Surrounding Operation Noah
		4.3	 Materials and Methods
		4.4	 Presentation of Data and Discussion of Findings
		4.5	 Conclusion
		References
	5: Victoria Falls Water Flow Regimes: A Tale of Two Half Centuries
		5.1	 Introduction
		5.2	 Literature Survey
		5.3	 Materials and Methods
		5.4	 Presentation of Data and Discussion of Findings
			5.4.1	 Annual and Decadal Mean Flow Analysis
			5.4.2	 Peak and Lows Daily Flow Migrations
			5.4.3	 Daily Mean Flow Regime Comparisons
		5.5	 Conclusion
		References
Part III: Urban Flooding and Insurance Matters
	6: Hotel Management Under Increasing and More Intense Floods: A Focus on The Centurion Hotel, South Africa
		6.1	 Introduction
		6.2	 Literature Review
		6.3	 Materials and Methods
		6.4	 Presentation and Discussion of Key Findings
			6.4.1	 The Nature and Extent of Damage to The Centurion Hotel by the 9 December Floods
			6.4.2	 The Extent and Possible Causes of Flooding of The Centurion Hotel
			6.4.3	 Centurion Hotel DRR Protocols, City of Tshwane Remedies and Their Effectiveness
		6.5	 Conclusions
		References
	7: Rethinking Harbours, Beaches and Urban Estuaries Waste Management Under Climate-Induced Floods in South Africa
		7.1	 Introduction and Background
		7.2	 Literature Survey
		7.3	 Methodology
		7.4	 Presentation of Data and Discussion of Findings
		7.5	 Conclusions and Recommendations
		References
	8: The Need for Effective Storm Water Management to Build Flood Resilient Communities: A Case of Port St Johns, South Africa
		8.1	 Introduction
		8.2	 Literature Review
			8.2.1	 Definition of Key Concepts in Storm Water Management
			8.2.2	 The Impact of Urbanisation on Informal Settlements
			8.2.3	 The Nexus Between Climate Change, Storm Water Drainage Systems and Informal Settlements
			8.2.4	 Implications of Inadequate Storm Water Management Systems on the SDGs
		8.3	 Materials and Methods
			8.3.1	 Study Area, Population and Sampling
			8.3.2	 Research Design
		8.4	 Presentation and Discussion of Findings
			8.4.1	 Possible Reasons That Exacerbated the Risk of Flooding
			8.4.2	 Flood Risk Exposure in the Absence of Proper Storm Water Management Infrastructure
			8.4.3	 Hindrances in the Provision of Proper Storm Water Management Structures in Informal Settlements
			8.4.4	 Key Informants’ Findings
		8.5	 Conclusion
		References
	9: Impacts of Cyclones Idai and Kenneth and the 2019 Floods on the Insurance Sector in South Africa and Mozambique
		9.1	 Introduction and Background
		9.2	 Literature Review
			9.2.1	 Global Cyclone and Flood Risks
			9.2.2	 Cyclone and Flood Risks in Mozambique and South Africa
		9.3	 Materials and Methods
		9.4	 Results and Discussions
			9.4.1	 Impacts of Cyclones in Mozambique
			9.4.2	 Impacts of Floods in South Africa
		9.5	 Proposed Recommendations for Insurers in Southern Africa
			9.5.1	 Increase Insurance Penetration by Providing Innovative Micro-Insurance Solutions
			9.5.2	 Establish Disaster Compensation Schemes
			9.5.3	 Provide Sustainable Risk Financing Solutions
			9.5.4	 Funding for Climate Change Research Initiatives
			9.5.5	 Improvement of Regulation and Policies on Climate Change-Related Cyclones and Floods
			9.5.6	 Invest in Sustainable Solutions
			9.5.7	 Collaboration between Governments and the Insurance Industry
		9.6	 Conclusion
		References
Part IV: Challenges from Rural Flooding
	10: Exploring the Migration Effects of Cyclones and Floods in Southern Africa: A Focus on 2019 Floods and Cyclones Idai and Kenneth
		10.1	 Introduction
		10.2	 Literature review
		10.3	 Environmental Characteristics of Climate Change in Southern Africa
		10.4	 Materials and Methods
		10.5	 Results and Discussion
		10.6	 Conclusion
		References
	11: Impact of Floods on Access to Drinking Water: A Focus on 2019 Floods in Magalasi Village in Chikwawa District, Malawi
		11.1	 Introduction
		11.2	 Study Area, Data and Methods
			11.2.1	 Description of the Study Area
			11.2.2	 Data Collection and Analysis
		11.3	 Results and Discussions
			11.3.1	 Water Sufficiency and Continuity of Water Supply in Water Sources
			11.3.2	 Safety of Water
			11.3.3	 Distance Travelled to Water Source
			11.3.4	 Affordability of Drinking Water
		11.4	 Conclusions and Recommendations
		References
	12: Vulnerability of Settlements to Floods in South Africa: A Focus on Port St Johns
		12.1	 Introduction
		12.2	 Literature Review
			12.2.1	 Vulnerability and its Measurements
			12.2.2	 Settlement Exposure, Susceptibility and Resilience to Flooding
			12.2.3	 Conceptual Framework
		12.3	 Materials and Methods
			12.3.1	 Study Area
			12.3.2	 Study Design
			12.3.3	 Sampling Procedure
			12.3.4	 Analytical Framework
		12.4	 Results and Discussion
			12.4.1	 Demographics
			12.4.2	 Flood Vulnerability Index
		12.5	 Conclusion
		References
	13: Impacts of Floods on Livestock Production in Port St Johns, South Africa
		13.1	 Introduction and Background
		13.2	 Methodology
			13.2.1	 Study Site
			13.2.2	 Research Design
		13.3	 Results and Discussion
			13.3.1	 Demand-Side Impact of Flooding on Livestock Production in Port St Johns
			13.3.2	 Supply-Side Impact of Flooding on Livestock Production in Port St Johns
			13.3.3	 Institutional Impact of Flooding on Livestock Production in Port St Johns
		13.4	 Conclusion
		References
Part V: Increasing Risk of Tornadoes
	14: Characterisation and Analysis of Emerging Localised Severe Storms in Malawi: How Common Are Tornadoes?
		14.1	 Introduction and Background
		14.2	 Materials and Methods
			14.2.1	 Damage Assessment
		14.3	 Presentation and Discussion of Results
			14.3.1	 Eye-Witness Accounts
			14.3.2	 Damage Assessment
				14.3.2.1	 Trees and Crops
				14.3.2.2	 Damage to Property
			14.3.3	 Weather Patterns—Synoptic Analysis
			14.3.4	 National Weather Picture
		14.4	 Conclusions
		References
	15: Characterisation and Impacts of Tornado-Induced Flooding and Windstorms in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa
		15.1	 Introduction and Background
		15.2	 Materials and Methods
		15.3	 Results and Discussions
			15.3.1	 Socio-Economic Impact of Tornadoes in Mpumalanga
			15.3.2	 Impact of Tornadoes on Forest Plantations in Mpumalanga
			15.3.3	 Community Response and Adaptation to Tornadoes in Mpumalanga
		15.4	 Conclusions and Recommendations
		References
Part VI: The Policy Space
	16: Emerging Key Findings, Conclusions and Recommendations
		16.1	 Introduction
		16.2	 Emerging Key Findings
			16.2.1	 Flood Modelling, Early Warning and Partnerships
			16.2.2	 Urban Flooding and Insurance Matters
			16.2.3	 Challenges from Rural Flooding
			16.2.4	 Increasing Risk of Tornados
		16.3	 Policy Recommendations
		16.4	 Conclusion
		References
Index