The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast

CONTENTS......Page 10
Foreword......Page 6
Preface......Page 8
I. GLOBAL MONSOON......Page 14
1. Introduction......Page 16
2. What is the Essence of the Global Monsoon?......Page 17
3. How to Define the Global Monsoon Domain?......Page 18
4. How to Measure Global Monsoon Precipitation Intensity?......Page 20
5. The Present-day Variation of the Global Monsoon Precipitation Intensity......Page 21
6. Centennial-Millennial Variation of the GMP Simulated by ECHO-G Model......Page 22
References......Page 25
2. Dataset Used......Page 28
3. Climatological and Record Rainfalls......Page 29
References......Page 35
II. REGIONAL MONSOONS......Page 36
1. Introduction......Page 38
2. Data......Page 41
3. South Asian Monsoon Rainfall......Page 42
3.1. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Links with ENSO and EQUINOO......Page 43
3.2. Summer Monsoon Rainfall over Pakistan and Bangladesh......Page 45
3.3. The Second Inter-monsoon over Sri Lanka......Page 48
5. Simulation and Prediction......Page 49
• Prediction Based on the Links to ENSO and EQUINOO......Page 51
6. Summary and Conclusions......Page 52
References......Page 53
1. Introduction......Page 56
2.1. East Asian Monsoon......Page 57
2.2. Monsoon in Indochina......Page 59
2.3. Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon......Page 61
3.1. Interannual Variability......Page 62
3.2. Interdecadal Variability......Page 65
3.3. Mechanisms of Long-term Variability......Page 67
4.2. Interannual Variability and Long-term Trends......Page 70
5.1. Sub-seasonal Variability and Multi-scale Nature of Western North Pacific Monsoons......Page 71
5.2. Interannual Variability......Page 73
Acknowledgements......Page 75
References......Page 76
2. Monsoon-ENSO Relationship......Page 86
3. Seasonal Prediction of Wet Season Onset......Page 91
4. Dynamical Coupled Model Forecasts......Page 93
Acknowledgments......Page 95
References......Page 96
6. The Maritime Continent Monsoon Andrew ROBERTSON, Vincent MORON, Jian-Hua QIAN, Chih-Pei CHANG, Fredolin TANGANG, Edvin ALDRIAN, Tieh Yong KOH, and Liew JUNENG......Page 98
2. Annual Cycle and Seasonal Transitions......Page 99
3. Interannual Variations and Seasonal Predictability......Page 102
4. Subseasonal Variability......Page 105
5. Interdecadal Variability, Trends and Projected Climate Change......Page 107
6. Conclusion......Page 108
References......Page 109
1. Introduction......Page 112
2. Interannual and Longer Term Variations......Page 113
3. Intraseasonal and Shorter Term Variations and Cold Air Outbreaks......Page 116
4. Recent Extreme Events: 2005 Late Winter Cold Surges, 2008 South China Snow Storms, and 2010 Persistent Cold Spells......Page 119
References......Page 121
1. Introduction......Page 124
2. The Mean Annual Cycle......Page 125
3. Variability ofthe West African Monsoon at Interannual and Longer Timescales......Page 127
3.1. Understanding of Interannual Variability......Page 128
3.2. Scenarios of the Climate Change Impact on the West African Monsoon......Page 130
4. Intraseasonal Variability......Page 131
4.1. Understanding of Intraseasonal Variability......Page 132
4.2. Seasonal Forecasting of the West African Monsoon......Page 134
5. Weather Systems and Process Studies in the W AM......Page 135
5.1. Structure and Circulation at Low-Levels......Page 136
5.2. African Easterly Waves......Page 137
5.3. Kelvin Waves......Page 138
5.4. Tropical-Extratropical Interactions......Page 139
5.5. MCS and Anvils......Page 140
References......Page 141
1. Introduction......Page 150
3. Precipitation over South America......Page 151
4. Monsoon Onset......Page 153
5. Intraseasonal Variability and Monsoon Breaks......Page 155
6. Interannual Variability......Page 157
7. Long-term Trends......Page 159
8. Environmental Changes......Page 161
References......Page 163
1. Introduction......Page 172
2. Background......Page 173
3. General Circulation and Large Scale Processes of the NAM......Page 175
4. Intra-seasonal Variability of the NAM......Page 177
4.1. Near-coast and Land/ailing Tropical Storms......Page 178
4.2. Gulf Surges......Page 180
4.3. Tropical Easterly Waves (TEWs)......Page 181
4.4. Inverted Troughs (IVs)......Page 182
4.5. Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)......Page 183
6. Long-term Trends and Variability in the NAM......Page 185
7. Outstanding Issues in NAM Research and Recommendations......Page 187
References......Page 189
III. SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE WEATHER......Page 194
1. Introduction......Page 196
2.2. Broad Features of Seasonal Rainfall on Sub-Regional Basis......Page 198
3.1. Features in the Onset and Advance Phases......Page 201
3.1.1 . Modeling of the Onset and Advance Processes......Page 202
3.2. Features in the Peak and Withdrawal Phases of the Monsoon......Page 203
3.3. Mesoscale Systems......Page 206
4. Progress in the Dynamical Prediction of Synoptic and Mesoscale Weather Systems in India in the SASM Season......Page 211
5. Summary and Concluding Remarks......Page 212
References......Page 213
1. Introduction......Page 218
2. The Synoptic Model of the Meiyu Front and Associated Secondary Circulation......Page 220
3. Onset of the Meiyu Season and its Link to the Onset of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM)......Page 221
4. Activity of Cold Air in the Meiyu Season......Page 225
5. Excessively Heavy Rainfalls Caused by a Succession of Low-Level Vortices in the East-Asian Meiyu-Baiu Front......Page 227
6. Conclusions......Page 232
References......Page 233
1. Introduction......Page 236
2. Transitions: Monsoon and Break Characteristics......Page 237
3. Overview of Storm Morphologies and Relation to Mean Circulation......Page 239
4.1. Storm Morphology......Page 244
4.2. MCS Case Study......Page 245
Acknowledgements......Page 246
References......Page 248
1. Introduction......Page 252
2. General Features of SAMS......Page 253
3. Synoptic Features......Page 254
4. Mesoscale Features......Page 256
5. Active and Break Monsoon......Page 259
6. Modulation of Extreme Precipitation Events by Climate Variability......Page 261
7. Research and Observational Activities Needed......Page 263
References......Page 264
1. Introduction......Page 270
2. Background......Page 271
3. Diurnal Cycle over the Global Tropics......Page 273
4. Diurnal Cycle in the Asian Monsoon Region......Page 276
5. Impacts of Diurnally Varying Low-Level Jets......Page 281
6. Semidiurnal Variability of Precipitation......Page 283
7. Summary and Outstanding Issues......Page 284
References......Page 285
1. Introduction......Page 290
2. Precipitation Upstream of Mountains......Page 291
3. Precipitation Downstream of Mountains......Page 293
4. Precipitation at Distance from Mountains......Page 295
5. Terrain Influence on Approaching Fronts and Storms......Page 296
References......Page 298
1. Introduction......Page 302
2.1. In the Downstream o/Yangtze River......Page 303
3. Observations over the East China Sea......Page 306
4. Understanding of Mesoscale Precipitation Systems in Moist Environments......Page 309
5. Tasks for the Future......Page 310
6. Concluding Remarks......Page 311
References......Page 312
1. Introduction......Page 316
2. Scientific Objectives......Page 317
3. Experiment Design......Page 319
4.1. Sounding Operation......Page 321
4.3. Operation Control Center and Daily Operation......Page 322
5. Preliminary Scientific Results......Page 323
Acknowledgements......Page 328
References......Page 329
19. The Characteristics of Summer Monsoon Rainfall at the Southwestern Ocean Area of Korea: A Study of the 2007 Season Dong-In LEE, Sang-Min lANG, Cheol-Hwan YOU, Min lANG, Kit-long SEO, Dong-Soon KIM, Mi-Young KANG, Hiroshi UYEDA, Masayuki MAKI, and B......Page 332
1. Introduction......Page 333
2. Data and Methods......Page 334
3.1. Case 1......Page 336
3.2. Case 2......Page 340
3.3. Case 3......Page 344
4. Summary and Conclusions......Page 347
References......Page 349
20. Heavy Rainfall over the Baiu Frontal Zone around Japan - Relation with Cloud-Top Heights of Cumulonimbi Teruyuki KATO......Page 352
2. Characteristic Features of the Baiu Frontal Zone......Page 353
3.1. Dependency of LNB on the Low-Level Temperature and the Lapse Rate......Page 357
3.2. Characteristic Features of LNB during the Baiu Season......Page 360
4.1. Simulation Results......Page 362
4.2. Quantitatively Contribution on Total Rainfall Amount......Page 364
5.1. Role of Middle-Level Dry Airs on the Development of Cumulonimbi......Page 365
5.2. Role of Middle-Level Dry Air on the Maintenance of Convective Activities......Page 367
References......Page 368
1. Introduction......Page 370
2. Tropical Cyclones in the Monsoon Environment: Observations......Page 371
2.1.1. Tropical Cyclone Formation, Intens ijication, Structure Change, and Satellite Validation......Page 373
2.1.3. Extratropical Transition o/Tropical Cyclones and Downstream Impacts......Page 374
2.2. Domain of Interest......Page 375
2.3. T-PARC Resources......Page 376
2.5. Field Program Highlights......Page 377
2.5.2. Tropical Cyclone Motion......Page 380
2.5.3. Air-sea Interaction......Page 382
References......Page 383
1. Introduction......Page 386
2. Airborne Radar Sampling and Analysis Techniques......Page 387
4. Axisymmetric Structure......Page 390
5. Asymmetric Structure......Page 393
6. Rainbands......Page 394
References......Page 396
IV. INTRASEASONAL PREDICTION......Page 400
1. Introduction......Page 402
2. Empirical Products for the Indian Monsoon......Page 404
3.1. MJO Monitoring, Impacts, and Prediction......Page 407
3.2. Tropical Cyclone Activity......Page 410
3.3. Equatorial Rossby and Kelvin waves......Page 411
4.2. Development and Implementation......Page 412
4.3. Current Status......Page 413
4.4. Future Plans......Page 415
5. Synthesis......Page 416
References......Page 417
1. Introduction......Page 422
2. Predictability of Various Statistical Models......Page 423
3. Predictability of Dynamical Models......Page 426
4. Combination of Statistical and Dynamical Predictions......Page 428
5. Summary and Concluding Remarks......Page 429
References......Page 430
V. NUMERICAL MODELING......Page 432
25. Modelling Monsoons: Understanding and Predicting Current and Future Behaviour Andrew TURNER, Kenneth R. SPERBER, Julia SLINGO, Gerald MEEHL, Carlos R. MECHOSO, Masahide KIMOTO, and Alessandra GIANNINI......Page 434
1. Introduction......Page 435
1.1. Basic Mechanisms: History of Using Models to Understand Monsoons......Page 436
1.2. Basic Predictability and Projections: History of Model Studies......Page 437
1.2.1. APCC/CliPAS, DEMETER, and PROVOST Results......Page 438
1.2.2. Predictions of Monsoon Behaviour in IPCC Assessment Results......Page 439
2.1. Interannual Variability and ENSO Teleconnections......Page 440
2.2. Active/Break Cycles......Page 441
3.1. Future Climate Scenarios......Page 443
3.2. EN SO-Monsoon Teleconnections......Page 444
3.3. Active/Break Cycles and Extreme Events......Page 445
4.1. Contemporary Climate Variability......Page 446
4.3. Future Climate Scenarios......Page 448
5.1. Contemporary Climate Variability and ENSO Impacts......Page 449
5.2. Predictability and Prediction......Page 451
6.1. Contemporary Climate Variability and ENSO Impacts......Page 452
7. Future Modelling Challenges......Page 454
7.2. Model Resolution and Scale Interactions......Page 455
7.3. Aerosols......Page 456
References......Page 457
1. Introduction - Re-examination of Current Modeling and Underlying Conceptions......Page 468
2. Development of a New Model NICAM......Page 472
3. Some Results of Numerical Experiments......Page 473
3.1. Aqua-planet Experiment - Emergence of Super Cloud Cluster (SCC)......Page 474
3.2. Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)......Page 475
3.3. Convection with Diurnal Variation......Page 478
3.4. Tropical Cyclones......Page 480
4. Discussion and Conclusion......Page 482
References......Page 483
1. Introduction......Page 488
2. Datasets and Methodology......Page 491
2.1. Superensemble Methodology......Page 492
3. Results and Discussions......Page 493
B. List of Acronyms......Page 503
References......Page 504
1. Introduction......Page 506
3. Simulations of Continental-scale Aspects of the Asian Summer Monsoon by Models of Various Resolutions......Page 508
4.1. Climatological Aspects......Page 510
4.3. Frontal Structure......Page 513
4.4. Synoptic Environment and Propagation Characteristics of Precipitation Centers......Page 515
5. Evolution of an Intense Cold Air Outbreak......Page 517
References......Page 520
VI. OCEAN AND AIR-SEA INTERACTION......Page 522
1. Introduction......Page 524
2. Diagnosing Air-Sea Feedbacks......Page 527
3. Linking Theory with Simulation......Page 528
References......Page 532
2. Western Pacific Ocean......Page 538
3. Eastern Indian Ocean......Page 542
References......Page 544
VII. LAND AND AEROSOL PROCESSES, CLIMATE CHANGE......Page 548
31. Review of Recent Observational and Dynamical Studies on the Climate Impacts of the Tibetan Plateau Guoxiong WU, Toshio KOIKE, Yimin LIU, and Kenji TANIGUCHI......Page 550
1. The Tibetan Plateau Sensible Heat Driving Air-Pump (TP-SHAP) and Atmospheric Basic Flow Patterns......Page 551
2.1. Atmospheric Heating over the Tibetan Plateau before the Onset of the Asian Monsoon......Page 556
2.2. Diurnal to Seasonal Variations in Cloud Activity over the Tibetan Plateau during Seasonal Transitions......Page 559
3. Persistent Rains in Early Spring over South China......Page 560
4. Influence of Heating of the Tibetan Plateau on the Asian Summer Monsoon......Page 562
4.1. Continental-Scale Heating, Heating of the Tibetan Plateau, and the East Asian Climate......Page 563
4.2. Heating of the Tibetan Plateau and Biweekly Oscillations of the General Circulation......Page 566
References......Page 567
2. Asian Monsoon......Page 570
3. Interannual Variability......Page 574
5. Aerosols and Land Use/Land Cover Change......Page 575
6. Future Changes in Extreme Events of Precipitation......Page 576
References......Page 578
1. Introduction......Page 582
2. Recent Studies of Aerosol Effects on the Asian Monsoon......Page 583
3.1. Aerosol-Monsoon Rainfall Seasonal Cycle......Page 585
3.2. Characteristic Large-scale Circulation Pattern Associated with Impacts of Absorbing Aerosols on the South Asian Monsoon......Page 587
3.3. The 2008 Indian Monsoon......Page 588
3.4. Possible Impacts of Dust on 2008 Indian Monsoon Rainfall Anomalies......Page 589
References......Page 592
1. Monsoon Climate as Land-Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction......Page 596
2.1. Role of Soil Moisture......Page 597
2.2.1. Some New Findingsfrom Observational Studies......Page 599
2.2.2. Some New Aspects from Modeling Studies......Page 600
3. Coupling of Land-Surface, ABL, and Cloud/Precipitation Processes......Page 602
4. Possible Impacts of Anthropogenic Land Use/Cover Changes on Asian Monsoon Climate......Page 603
5. Land-Surface Feedback Processes through Energy and Water Cycles......Page 604
References......Page 605