The Geography of Conflict in North and West Africa

The Sahel andWest Africa Club
Foreword
	The teamand acknowledgments
Conflicts and military interventions in North and West Africa
	The increasing complexity of conflict
		A spatial indicator of political violence
		Four types of conflict geography
		Conflicts are local but increasingly violent
	Modern conflicts and military interventions
	Political options and long-term stability
		References
Table of contents
Characteristics of modern conflicts in Africa
	Why so many conflicts in Africa?
		Governance of postcolonial elites
		Presence or absence of natural resources
		Search for sovereignty
		Use of ethnicity
		Use of religion
	Geography and war
		Geography and interstate war
		Geography and civil war
	How space shapes political actors
		Place
		Distance
		Identity
		Borders
		Territory
		Scale
		References
		Annex 2.A1Foreign terrorist organisations operating in border sanctuaries, June 2019
Mapping political violence in North and West Africa
	How to assess the geography of violence
		A focus on organisations
		Regional and local analyses
		A disaggregated dataset
	Introducing a new spatial indicator
		The intensity of violence
		The concentration of violence
	Measuring the impact of military interventions
		References
The changing geography of conflict in North and West Africa
	Patterns of violence in North and West Africa
		Specificities of modern conflicts in the region
		A more violent region
		More violence against civilians
		More violence in border regions
	A growing intensity of conflicts
		Measuring the intensity of violence
		More regions are experiencing intense violence
		Violence is spilling over into adjacent regions
	Local and dispersed political violence
		Measuring the concentration of violence
		Most regions exhibit clustering of violent events
		Patterns of violence have become more dispersed
	The evolution of the intensity and concentration of conflicts
		Four types of conflicts
		More conflicts are intensifying locally than before
		The shifting geography of political violence
	Local conflict in Mali, Nigeria and Libya
		The Malian Civil War and Central Sahel insurgency
		Nigeria’s insurgencies and communal violence
		Boko Haram’s insurgency
		Communal violence in the Middle Belt
		The Niger Delta insurgency
		Libya’s civil wars
		Political perspectives
		References
Military interventions in North and West Africa
	The impact of military interventions
		The impact of military interventions on civil wars
		Military interventions and insurgencies
	The regional security architecture
		Continental and regional security strategies
		Sahel strategies of the international community
	Twenty military interventions in two decades
	Mapping foreign military interventions
	The French intervention in Mali
		Operation Serval
		Violence has peaked since Serval’s intervention
	The multinational intervention around Lake Chad
		Fighting the Boko Haram insurgency
		The MNJTF intervention neither eliminated nor relocated violence
	The Nato intervention in Libya
		Bombing campaign and regime change
		A decisive campaign that did not put an end to violence overall
	Learning from the spatial indicator
		References
Boxes
	Box 2.1Divisions within nomadic societies in Mali and Niger
	Box 2.2Targeting the near or far enemy?
	Box 3.1The Chadian Civil War (1998-2002, 2005-10)
	Box 3.2Choosing the right grid for the region
	Box 3.3Categories of actors
	Box 3.4Data processing steps
	Box 4.1The Casamance conflict (1982-2014)
	Box 4.2The Tuareg rebellions in Niger and Mali (2006-09)
	Box 5.1The Ivorian Civil Wars (2002-07, 2010-11)
	Box 5.2The impact of military intervention on co-operation and rivalry in Syria
	Box 5.3Comparing Operation Serval with past French interventions
	Box 5.4How to read an alluvial chart
	Box 5.5MNJTF operations since 2016
Figures
	Figure 1.1The spatial dynamics of conflict events
	Figure 1.2Evolution of violent events by type in North and West Africa, 1997-2019
	Figure 1.3Regions with multiple violent events, percentage, 1997-2018
	Figure 1.4Categories of conflict in Mali and Central Sahel, 2011-19
	Figure 1.5Categories of conflict in the Lake Chad region, 2008-19
	Figure 1.6Categories of conflict in Libya, 2011-19
	Figure 3.1Density of violent events
	Figure 3.2Identical density but different locational pattern of violent events
	Figure 3.3Clustered, random and dispersed events as measured by the average nearest neighbour ratio
	Figure 4.1Conflicts in North and West Africa by type, 1960-2019
	Figure 4.2Violent events by type in North and West Africa, 1997-2019 (June)
	Figure 4.3Fatalities due to violent events by type in North and West Africa, 1997-2019 (June)
	Figure 4.4Violent events, fatalities and distance to land borders, 1997-2019 (June)
	Figure 4.5Regions classified as clustered, percentage, 1997-2018
	Figure 4.6Four types of conflicts
	Figure 4.7Number of conflicts by type, 1997-2018
	Figure 4.8Proportion of conflict regions by type, 1997-2018
	Figure 4.9Yearly shifts in the Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi)
	Figure 4.10Fatalities due to violent events by type in Nigeria, 1997-2019 (June)
	Figure 4.11Violent events and fatalities related to Boko Haram, 2009-19 (June)
	Figure 5.1Ten steps to bring down a government
	Figure 5.2Events and fatalities in Mali and Central Sahel, 2011-19
	Figure 5.3Shifts in the Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi) in Mali and Central Sahel, 2013
	Figure 5.4Events and fatalities in the Lake Chad region, 2008-19
	Figure 5.5Shifts in the Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator around Lake Chad, 2015
	Figure 5.6Events and fatalities in Libya per month, 2011-19
	Figure 5.7Shifts in the Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi) in Libya, 2011
Maps
	Map 1.1Victims of violent political events, 2011-19
	Map 1.2Countries covered
	Map 1.3Fatalities according to distance to borders in the Liptako-Gourma region, 2011-19
	Map 1.4Categories of conflict in North and West Africa, 2018
	Map 1.5Violent events in Nigeria, 2009-19
	Map 2.1Violent events related to Al-Qaeda-affiliated organisations, 2004-11
	Map 2.2Foreign terrorist organisations operating in border sanctuaries
	Map 3.1Victims of political violence in North and West Africa, 1997-2019
	Map 3.2Location of case studies
	Map 3.3Size of grids and number of events by cells
	Map 4.1Violent political events in North and West Africa, 1997-2019
	Map 4.2Politically-motivated fatalities in North and West Africa, 1997-2019
	Map 4.3Fatalities according to distance to land borders, 2009-19 (June)
	Map 4.4North and West Africa divided into 6 540 "cells" or "regions"
	Map 4.5Intensity of conflict in North and West Africa, 2018
	Map 4.6Intensity of conflict in North and West Africa, 1997-2015
	Map 4.7Intensity of conflict in Mali and neighbouring countries, 2018
	Map 4.8Intensity of conflict in Nigeria, 2018
	Map 4.9Intensity of conflict in Libya, 2018
	Map 4.10Concentration of conflict in North and West Africa, 2018
	Map 4.11Concentration of conflict in North and West Africa, 1997-2015
	Map 4.12Concentration of conflict in Mali and neighbouring countries, 2018
	Map 4.13Concentration of conflict in Nigeria, 2018
	Map 4.14Concentration of conflict in Libya, 2018
	Map 4.15Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi) in North and West Africa, 2018
	Map 4.16Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi) in North and West Africa, 1997-2015
	Map 4.17Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi) in Mali and Central Sahel, 2018
	Map 4.18The Northeast, Middle Belt and Delta of Nigeria
	Map 4.19Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi) in Nigeria and the Lake Chad region, 2018
	Map 4.20Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi) in Libya, 2018
	Map 5.1Major military interventions in North and West Africa, 1997-2019
	Map 5.2Areas of interest in Mali and Central Sahel, the Lake Chad region and Libya
	Map 5.3Fatalities involving France and the United Nations in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, 2013-19
	Map 5.4Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi) categories in Mali and Central Sahel, January, June and December 2013
	Map 5.5Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi) categories in Mali and Central Sahel, February,June and July 2014
	Map 5.6Fatalities involving military forces and Boko Haram around Lake Chad, 2009-19
	Map 5.7Fatalities related to battles around Lake Chad, 2009-19
	Map 5.8Fatalities related to explosions and remote violence around Lake Chad, 2009-19
	Map 5.9Fatalities involving government forces and Boko Haram around Lake Chad, 2015
	Map 5.10Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator around Lake Chad, January 2015
	Map 5.11Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator categories around Lake Chad, July and December 2015
	Map 5.12Fatalities involving NATO and foreign powers in Libya, 2011-19
	Map 5.13Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi) categories in Libya, February 2011
	Map 5.14Spatial Conflict Dynamics indicator (SCDi) categories in Libya, March and October 2011
Tables
	Table 1.1Types of conflict according to intensity and concentration of events
	Table 2.1Ethnonationalist, ideologically-oriented and religious movements
	Table 2.2Attacks and impact on enemies
	Table 3.1Questions, approaches and metrics for assessing the geography of violence
	Table 3.2Four social levels of analysis
	Table 3.3Number of violent events and fatalities per country, 1997-2019
	Table 3.4Number of actors by category, 1997-2019
	Table 3.5ACLED violent event types
	Table 4.1Most affected locations in the region and within 50 kilometres of a land border, 2009-19
	Table 5.1Major foreign military interventions, 1997-2019
	Table 5.2Events and fatalities directly related to military interventions