The Future of the World's Climate, Second Edition

978-0-12-386917-3......Page 1
The Future of the World\'s Climate......Page 2
Copyright......Page 3
Dedication......Page 4
Foreword......Page 5
Editors\' Biographies......Page 655
Abbreviations & Acronyms......Page 9
Bibliography......Page 547
Future Climate......Page 17
1.1. The Future of Our Climate: Introduction and Outline......Page 19
1.2.1. Informing the Public on the Greenhouse `Debate\'......Page 21
1.2.2. Global Warming `Just a Theory\'......Page 22
1.2.3. Schneider and Climate Connectedness......Page 25
1.3.1. Changing Climates......Page 27
1.3.2. Challenges in Climate Science......Page 28
1.4.1. From Global to Local......Page 32
1.4.2. Witnessing the World’s First Climate `Ground Zero\'......Page 34
1.5. Futurology of Climate......Page 38
Acknowledgements......Page 41
9 Future Regional Climates......Page 42
17 Future Climate Surprises......Page 45
2.3. A Governance Approach to Address Climate Change......Page 47
2.4. Science and Politics in the International Climate Regime......Page 50
6.2.1 Observing the Global Ocean......Page 158
2.4.3. IPCC as an SES Contributor......Page 52
2.4.4. IPCC Projections, Tipping Points, and Policy-Making......Page 53
2.5. The Role of the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol......Page 54
17.3.4. Yedoma Permafrost......Page 56
13.2.1. Tropospheric Ozone......Page 386
7.5.7. Stochastically Forced Southern Ocean Variability......Page 57
2.6.5. The Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate......Page 58
2.7. Bottom-Up Approaches: Civil Society Participation and Influence......Page 59
2.8.2. Social Learning......Page 60
2.9. Future Unknowns: Living on a Warmer Earth?......Page 61
5.1. Introduction: The Sensitive Climate......Page 63
16.2.2. A Definition of the Triassic-Jurassic Boundary......Page 480
18.1.2. The Gaia Hypothesis......Page 527
18.1.2.1. Dimethyl Sulfide (DMS) and Climate Regulation......Page 64
3.1.2.2. Climate Impacts in Cities Result from Urban and Global Climate Changes......Page 65
15.6.3.2. Annual Temperature at the Regional-Scale......Page 467
3.2.1. Urban Morphology......Page 66
8.3.2. Definitions and Units......Page 68
18.1.4.1. Carbon Cycle and Carbon Budgets......Page 438
3.2.3. Urban Energy Exchanges......Page 70
3.2.3.2. Urban Heat Storage and Anthropogenic Fluxes......Page 71
3.2.4. Urban Water Balance......Page 72
3.2.5. Urban Carbon Balance......Page 77
3.2.6. Summary: Coupling Energy, Water, and Carbon in Urban Areas......Page 79
3.2.7.2. Surface Energy Balance......Page 80
3.2.7.4. Urban Heat Island......Page 81
3.2.7.5. Urban Effects on the Boundary Layer and Rainfall......Page 82
3.3. Cities and Global Climate Change......Page 83
3.3.1. Using Urban Design to Mitigate Global Climate Change......Page 84
3.3.2. Adapting to Global Climate Change in Cities......Page 87
3.4.1. Hardware Models......Page 88
15.5. Modelling the GHG and Insolation Contributions to the Difference Between Pre- and Post-MBE Interglacials......Page 459
3.4.3. Physically-Based Models......Page 89
4.5. Land Use and Understanding our Future Climate......Page 91
4.1. Introduction: Land Change and Climate......Page 93
4.2. The Scale of Human Modification......Page 94
4.3.1. The Terrestrial Carbon Balance......Page 96
17.2.2. Policy-Relevant Tipping Elements......Page 508
4.3.5. Summary......Page 100
4.4. Links Between LULCC and Climate......Page 101
4.4.2. Findell et al. (2006, 2007, 2009)......Page 104
14.2.2. The Mid-Holocene......Page 434
11.4. Observational Constraints......Page 221
18.1.4. Advances in Earth System Science......Page 248
V Understanding the Unknowns......Page 113
5 Fast and Slow Feedbacks in Future Climates......Page 115
5.1.1. Radiative Forcing......Page 116
5.2. Fast-Feedback Climate Sensitivity......Page 117
18.1.2.2. Vegetation and Climate Interactions......Page 528
16.2.4.2. The Triassic-Jurassic Carbon Cycle......Page 119
5.2.2.1. Feedback Parameters for Individual Processes in AOGCMs......Page 121
15.6.3.5. MIS-17, MIS-5, and MIS-15......Page 122
10.3.1.3. Frosts......Page 288
5.2.5. Climate Sensitivity Deduced from Observed Short-Term Temperature Changes......Page 124
5.2.6.3. Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)......Page 126
16.3.3. Deccan and Other Volcanism......Page 127
5.2.8. Climate Sensitivity Deduced from Slow Variations in Atmospheric CO2 Concentration......Page 128
5.2.9. Conclusion Concerning the Fast-Feedback Climate Sensitivity......Page 129
5.3.1. Oceanic Carbon Cycle Processes......Page 130
5.3.3. Ocean Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedback Processes......Page 131
5.3.4.2. Inter-annual and Longer Variations in NPP and Chlorophyll......Page 132
5.3.5. Climate-Ocean-Sink Feedbacks as Projected by Models......Page 133
5.3.6. Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Processes......Page 134
8.6.1.9. Synthesis......Page 135
8.7.3. The Probability Distribution Function of Glacier Futures: Glimpses of the Known and Unknown......Page 237
5.3.8.3. Dieback of Middle- and High-Latitude Forests......Page 136
5.3.8.4. Amazon Ecosystem Collapse......Page 137
5.3.8.5. Methane Emissions from Wetlands......Page 138
5.3.8.7. Summary......Page 139
5.3.9.3. Tree Mortality and Insect Outbreaks......Page 140
5.3.9.4. Increased Incidence and Severity of Forest Fires......Page 141
5.3.10. Destabilization of Methane Clathrate......Page 142
14.4. Biosphere Feedbacks......Page 143
5.4.2. Climatic Change As a Feedback on the Carbon Cycle......Page 145
5.4.3. The Carbon Cycle As a Climate Feedback......Page 146
5.4.4. Role of Carbon-Nitrogen (C-N) Coupling......Page 148
5.4.5. Combination of Climate Sensitivity and Carbon Feedback Gain Formulation......Page 149
5.4.6. Applying Climate Sensitivity to Future Climate Policy Strategies......Page 150
5.5.2. Shifts in the Distribution of Plant Functional Types......Page 153
5.5.5. Collapse of Marine Bioproductivity and Cloud Feedback......Page 154
16.6. `Deep-Time\' Context for Anthropogenic Environmental and Climate Change......Page 155
6 Variability and Change in the Ocean......Page 157
15.1. Introduction: Interglacials and Warm Climate......Page 453
6.2.2 Natural Modes of Variability......Page 159
6.2.2.1 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)......Page 160
12.2.4. Upper Tropospheric Processes......Page 332
6.2.2.3 Southern Annular Mode (SAM)......Page 161
18.1.3. Earth System Science......Page 333
6.2.3 Surface Temperature and Salinity......Page 162
6.2.4 Heat Content and Sea Level......Page 163
10.3.2. Precipitation Extremes......Page 289
6.2.6 Oxygen......Page 167
8.4.4. Mass-Balance Sensitivity......Page 223
10.3.3.1. Droughts and Floods......Page 291
6.2.7.2 The Solubility CO2 Pump......Page 169
15.7.3. Ruddiman Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis......Page 170
6.2.8 Ocean Biology......Page 171
8.3.1. Terms in the Mass-Balance Equation......Page 219
6.3.1 Tropical Pacific......Page 172
6.3.2 Southern Ocean......Page 174
18.3.2. ESS Trans-disciplinarity in Action......Page 175
Acknowledgements......Page 545
8.6.1.2. IPCC Assessment Report 3......Page 231
6.4.2.1 Traditional View of Biological Carbon Feedback......Page 177
6.4.3 Ocean Acidification Feedbacks......Page 178
6.5.1 Oceans and the Future Climate......Page 179
9.5.2. Greenland Mass Balance......Page 180
Acknowledgements......Page 181
7.1. Introduction: Oceans and Future Climate......Page 183
17.2. Defining Climate Surprises......Page 187
16.3. Extraterrestrial Impacts: Case Study of the End-Cretaceous Events......Page 189
12.4. Distribution and Changes of Chemical Active Greenhouse Gases and Their Precursors......Page 194
7.5. The Stochastic Climate Model: The Null Hypothesis For Climate Variability......Page 197
7.5.2. Stochastic Models with Mean Advection and Spatial Coherence......Page 198
13.1.4. Focus of This Chapter......Page 199
7.5.5. Stochastically-Driven AMOC Variability......Page 200
7.5.6. Stochastic Coupled Variability Involving the AMOC......Page 204
7.5.8. Forced AMOC Variability......Page 205
7.6. Summary: Future Unknowns......Page 210
8.1. Introduction: Climate and the Cryosphere......Page 213
13.1.1. Background......Page 383
8.1.3. Scope......Page 214
13.2. Climatically-Important Chemical Compounds......Page 215
8.2.2. The Radiation Balance......Page 218
8.4.2. Temperature-Index Models......Page 222
13.3.1. The Role of Ozone As a Climatically Active Compound......Page 224
8.5.3. Measurements of Shrinkage......Page 225
8.5.4. Present-Day Extent and Thickness......Page 226
8.5.5. Recent Evolution of Glacier Mass Balance......Page 227
12.6. Contributions to Tropospheric Changes from the Transport Sector and for Different Regions......Page 297
12.4.1.2.4. OH Distribution and Trends......Page 229
18.3.2.2. Cities at Risk......Page 542
12.4.3.1. Aerosol Trends......Page 348
8.6.1.6. Pfeffer et al. (2008)......Page 232
13.4.4.1. Aerosol Distribution......Page 406
8.6.1.8. Radić and Hock (2011)......Page 233
8.6.2. The Future of Himalayan Glaciers......Page 235
8.7.1. Basic Information......Page 236
Acknowledgements......Page 238
9.1. Introduction: Close-Up of Climate Change......Page 239
10.2.1. Quality and Homogeneity of Observed Data......Page 276
9.2.1.Tropical Cyclones......Page 240
9.2.2.Sea Breezes and Monsoons......Page 242
13.1.3. Climate-Chemistry Interaction: Regional-Scales......Page 244
9.2.5.2. Changes in Extreme Events......Page 245
13.2.2. Tropospheric Aerosols......Page 247
9.3.1.3. Variable-Resolution Global Models......Page 249
12.4.1.2.1. Ozone......Page 340
9.3.1.6. Future Development in Dynamical Downscaling......Page 251
9.3.2.1. Perfect Prognosis (PP)......Page 252
12.4.1.2.3. Carbon Monoxide (CO)......Page 253
9.4.2. GCM Uncertainties......Page 254
9.4.3. Uncertainty from Downscaling Techniques......Page 255
9.4.4.1. Sampling the Uncertainty......Page 257
9.4.4.2. The `Most Likely\' Future Climate and Its Probability......Page 258
9.5.1. Water Resources......Page 259
9.5.1.1. Murray-Darling Basin......Page 260
9.5.3. Understanding Tropical Cyclones......Page 262
9.5.3.2. Simple/Empirical Downscaling......Page 263
9.6. Regionalizing Future Climate......Page 266
III Looking Forward......Page 267
10.1. Introduction: Extremes of Climate......Page 269
12.2.1. Observing Chemistry-Climate Interactions......Page 329
10.1.2. Definition of Climate Extremes......Page 273
10.2.3. Issues of Scale......Page 281
10.3.1. Temperature Extremes......Page 284
10.3.1.1. Hot/Cold Days and Nights......Page 285
16.3.2. Impact at the End of the Cretaceous......Page 292
10.3.3.3. Small-Scale Severe Weather Phenomena......Page 293
10.4.1. Natural Modes of Variability of the Climate System and Their Influence on Extremes\' Behaviour......Page 294
17.6.1. Risk Assessment......Page 514
10.5. How Well do Climate Models Simulate Extremes?......Page 296
10.6.1. Temperature Extremes......Page 299
10.6.2. Precipitation Extremes......Page 301
11.5.5. What Models Tell Us About How Terrestrial Carbon and Nitrogen Cycles Will Change and Interact with the Atmosphere in .........Page 321
10.7. Extremes in Our Future Climate......Page 304
14.1. Timescales of Climate Change, their Causation, and Detection......Page 419
11.1. Introduction: Cycling Terrestrial Nutrients......Page 305
11.2.1. Carbon......Page 306
11.3.1. Leaf Carbon......Page 308
16.2.4. The Earth’s Physical Environment at the Triassic-Jurassic Transition......Page 481
11.3.2. Down-regulation of Leaf Photosynthetic Capacity......Page 310
11.3.4. Nitrogen Cycling and Feedbacks on Carbon......Page 311
11.4.1. General Considerations of Rates and Timescales......Page 313
11.4.2. Dependence of Carbon Assimilation on CO2 and N at Leaf Level......Page 314
11.4.4. Temperature Dependence of Carbon Assimilation......Page 315
11.4.5. Dependence of Plant Growth on CO2 and N......Page 316
11.4.6. A Network for Monitoring the `Breathing’ of the Terrestrial Biosphere......Page 317
11.4.7. Atmosphere Concentration as a Global Constraint on Terrestrial Sources and Sinks......Page 318
11.5.1. Scaling from Leaf to Canopy......Page 319
11.5.2. Modelling Plant and Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling......Page 320
11.6. Consequences of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change for Carbon and Nitrogen Cycles......Page 323
Acknowledgements......Page 324
12 Atmospheric Composition Change: Climate-Chemistry Interactions......Page 325
12.1. Introduction......Page 326
12.2. Key Interactions in the Climate-Chemistry System......Page 328
12.2.3. Scale Issues......Page 330
12.3.1.2. Global and Regional Future Emission Inventories......Page 334
12.3.1.3. Future Inventories from Different Sectors......Page 336
12.4.1.1. Satellite Observations......Page 338
16.2.6.3. Volcanism: Atmospheric Pollution and Global Cooling......Page 339
13.2.3. Coupling Changes of Chemistry and Climate......Page 394
12.4.1.2.2. Methane Monitoring......Page 343
12.4.2.1. Tropospheric Ozone......Page 345
12.4.2.2. Projections of OH and CH4......Page 347
12.4.3.3. Diversity of Simulated Aerosol Loads......Page 349
12.4.4.1. Surface Solar Dimming from the 1960s to the 1980s......Page 351
13.5.1. Mitigation Studies from the Transport Sector......Page 408
12.4.4.3. Impact of Dimming and Brightening on the Climate System......Page 352
12.5.1.1. Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases......Page 353
12.5.1.4. NO2......Page 355
12.5.2.2. Atmospheric Absorption by Carbonaceous Aerosols......Page 356
12.5.3. Semidirect Effects of Aerosols......Page 357
12.5.4. Aerosol Indirect Effects......Page 358
12.5.4.2. Aerosol Indirect Effects Associated with Cold Clouds......Page 359
12.5.5. Radiative Forcing Summary......Page 360
12.6.1. Composition Change Due to Emission from the Transport Sectors......Page 362
12.6.1.1. Studies of Current Impact......Page 363
12.6.1.2. Studies on Future Trends......Page 364
12.6.2.1. Impact from the Different Sectors......Page 366
12.6.2.2. Comparison with Other Sectors......Page 367
12.6.3. The Impact of Large Emission Increases in South East Asia......Page 368
12.6.4.2. Climate Impact of Chemically and Radiatively Active Short-Lived Species in the Arctic......Page 369
12.7.1.1. Ozone and Its Precursors......Page 370
12.7.1.2. Methane......Page 371
12.7.1.4. Effects of Climate Change on Arctic Composition......Page 372
12.7.2.4. Impact of UV Changes......Page 373
12.8. Cross Cutting Issues (Policy Relations, Integration)......Page 374
12.8.1. Climatic Response to Solar Forcing: Overview of Theories......Page 375
12.8.2.2. Special Challenges for Metrics of Chemically Active Short-Lived Species......Page 376
12.8.2.3. Examples of Published Metrics......Page 377
12.8.3.1. The Role of Model-Observation and Model-Model Comparisons......Page 378
12.9. Summary and Conclusions......Page 379
Acknowledgements......Page 381
13.1.2. Anthropogenic Activity and Climate Changes......Page 384
13.2.1.2. Modelling Studies......Page 387
13.2.2.1. Anthropogenic Sources......Page 388
13.2.2.2. Observational Analyses......Page 390
13.2.2.3. Modelling Studies......Page 391
13.3. Climate-Chemistry Interaction of Tropospheric Ozone......Page 396
13.3.2. Ozone Chemistry......Page 397
13.3.3. Ozone-Climate Coupling......Page 398
13.3.4.2. Impact on Column Ozone......Page 399
13.3.4.3. Impact on Surface Ozone......Page 401
13.3.4.4. Impact on Radiative Forcing......Page 402
17.6.4.1. The Lack of Data Problem......Page 403
13.4.3. Effect of Climate-Chemistry Interactions......Page 404
13.4.3.1. Sulfate Loading and Radiative Forcing......Page 405
13.4.4.2. Model Development......Page 407
13.5.2. Tropospheric Aerosols......Page 409
13.5.3. Tropospheric Ozone......Page 412
13.6.2. Climate-Chemistry `Known Unknowns\'......Page 413
13.6.2.4. Glimpsing the Hazy Future......Page 414
Acknowledgements......Page 415
IV Learning Lessons......Page 417
18.1.1. Earth: An Integrated System......Page 423
14.1.2. Insolation Variations......Page 424
14.1.3. Implications of Insolation Variations......Page 426
14.1.4. Co-variation of Climate and Biogeochemical Cycles Over the Past 800 kyr......Page 427
16.2.4.1. The Earth’s Atmosphere and Global Temperatures at the Triassic-Jurassic Transition......Page 429
14.1.6. Cycles and Spurious Periodicity: A Warning......Page 430
14.2. Regional Responses to Millennial-Scale Forcing......Page 431
17.4.1. Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM)......Page 511
14.2.3. Consistency of Spatial Responses in Warm and Cold Climates......Page 437
14.3. Rapid Climate Changes......Page 440
16.2.7. Summary......Page 442
14.3.2. Characteristics of Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) Cycles......Page 443
14.3.3. Mechanisms for D-O Cycles......Page 444
14.3.4. Spatial Patterns of D-O Cycles......Page 445
14.5. Lessons from the Past for the Study of Climate Changes......Page 448
Acknowledgements......Page 452
15.2. Model and Experiments Used for Simulating the Last Nine Interglacials......Page 455
15.3. Precession and Obliquity During the Interglacials......Page 458
15.6.1. The Reference Climate......Page 463
15.6.2. Pure Contribution of GHG......Page 464
15.6.3.1. Annual Global Mean Temperature and Obliquity......Page 466
15.6.3.3. The Anomalous High Latitude Local Winter Warming......Page 469
15.6.3.4. MIS-1 Analogues......Page 470
15.6.4.1. Annual and Seasonal Global Mean Temperature......Page 471
15.6.4.3. Validation of the Simulations......Page 472
16.3.1. A Definition of the Cretaceous-Palaeogene Boundary......Page 474
15.7.2. Modelling the Future of Holocene......Page 476
15.8. Probing Future Astro-Climates......Page 477
Acknowledgements......Page 478
16.1. Introduction: What is a Climate Catastrophe?......Page 479
16.2.5. Mass Extinction and Biotic Changes at the Triassic-Jurassic Transition......Page 484
16.2.6.1. Atmospheric CO2: Rising Temperatures and Plant Extinction......Page 485
16.2.6.2. Atmospheric CO2: A Biocalcification Crisis at the Tr-J?......Page 486
16.3.4. Mass Extinction and Biotic Changes at the Cretaceous-Palaeogene Boundary......Page 491
16.4.2.1. Thermal Radiation......Page 492
16.4.2.2. Climatic Influence - Impact Winter......Page 493
16.4.2.5. Ozone and UV Radiation......Page 494
17.6.5. Bifurcations in Noisy Systems......Page 518
16.4.3.1. Thermal Radiation......Page 495
16.4.3.2. Extinction Mechanisms - Impact Winter......Page 496
16.4.3.3. Biotic Influences - CO2 Effects......Page 497
16.4.3.5. Ozone and UV Radiation......Page 498
16.5. Comparison of the Tr-J And K-Pg Events......Page 499
17.7. Future Climate: Surprises, Responses, and Recovery Strategies......Page 501
Acknowledgements......Page 523
17.1. Introduction: Probing Future Climates......Page 505
17.2.1. Tipping Points and Noise-Induced Transitions......Page 506
17.3.1. Arctic Sea-Ice......Page 509
17.3.3. West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS)......Page 510
17.4.4. West African Monsoon (WAM) and Sahel-Sahara......Page 512
17.5.1. Amazon Rainforest......Page 513
17.6.2. Removing the Element of Surprise......Page 515
17.6.3. Early Warning of Bifurcations......Page 516
17.6.4. Limitations on Early Warning......Page 517
17.6.6. Application to Past Abrupt Climate Changes......Page 519
17.7.1. Mitigation......Page 521
17.7.3. Rational Responses?......Page 522
18.1. Gaia and Earth System Science......Page 525
18.1.3.1. Earth System Analysis (ESA)......Page 529
18.1.3.2. The Amsterdam Declaration......Page 530
18.1.3.3. Integrated ESS Research......Page 531
18.1.4.3. Coherent Future Scenarios for Climate......Page 534
18.1.4.4. Planetary Boundaries......Page 535
18.2.1. Climate Change and the Gaian Governance Monkeys......Page 536
18.2.2. Social Tipping Points in Climate Change: 2007 to 2010......Page 537
18.2.3. Research Requires a Meritocracy; Decisions Demand Democracy......Page 538
18.2.4. Integrity Paradox: Policy Prescription or People’s Ponzi......Page 539
18.2.5. Gaian Governance......Page 540
18.3.1. Creating a Social Contract with Society......Page 541
18.3.3. Future Climates: Exploiting Trans-disciplinary Earth System Science......Page 543
A......Page 639
C......Page 640
E......Page 643
F......Page 644
G......Page 645
I......Page 646
M......Page 647
N......Page 648
O......Page 649
S......Page 650
T......Page 652
U......Page 653
Z......Page 654
Biographies......Page 657