Statistics : concepts and controversies

Cover Page
Title Page
Copyright Page
BRIEF CONTENTS
CONTENTS
To the Teacher: Statistics as a Liberal Discipline
Applications Index
Prelude: Making Sense of Statistics
Statistics and You: What Lies ahead in This Book
About the Authors
PART I Producing Data
	1 Where Do Data Come From?
		Case Study
		Talking about data: individuals and variables
		Observational studies
		Sample surveys
		Census
		Experiments
		Statistics in Summary
		Link It
		Case Study Evaluated
		Chapter 1 Exercises
		Exploring the Web
		Notes and Data Sources
	2 Samples, Good and Bad
		Case Study
		How to sample badly
		Simple random samples
		Can you trust a sample?
		Statistics in Summary
		Link It
		Case Study Evaluated
		Chapter 2 Exercises
		Exploring the Web
		Notes and Data Sources
	3 What Do Samples Tell Us?
		Case Study
		From sample to population
		Sampling variability
		Margin of error and all that
		Confidence statements
		Sampling from large populations
		Statistical Controversies: Should Election Polls Be Banned?
		Statistics in Summary
		Link It
		Case Study Evaluated
		Chapter 3 Exercises
		Exploring the Web
		Notes and Data Sources
	4 Sample Surveys in the Real World
		Case Study
		How sample surveys go wrong
		Sampling errors
		Nonsampling errors
		Wording questions
		How to live with nonsampling errors
		Sample design in the real world
		Statistical Controversies: The Harris Online Poll
		The challenge of Internet surveys
		Probability samples
		Questions to ask before you believe a poll
		Statistics in Summary
		Link It
		Case Study Evaluated
		Chapter 4 Exercises
		Exploring the Web
		Notes and Data Sources
	5 Experiments, Good and Bad
		Case Study
		Talking about experiments
		How to experiment badly
		Randomized comparative experiments
		The logic of experimental design
		Statistical significance
		How to live with observational studies
		Statistics in Summary
		Link It
		Case Study Evaluated
		Chapter 5 Exercises
		Exploring the Web
		Notes and Data Sources
	6 Experiments in the Real World
		Case Study
		Equal treatment for all
		Double-blind experiments
		Refusals, nonadherers, and dropouts
		Can we generalize?
		Experimental design in the real world
		Matched pairs and block designs
		Statistical Controversies: Is It or Isn’t It a Placebo?
		Statistics in Summary
		Link It
		Case Study Evaluated
		Chapter 6 Exercises
		Exploring the Web
		Notes and Data Sources
	7 Data Ethics
		Case Study
		First principles
		Institutional review boards
		Informed consent
		Confidentiality
		Clinical trials
		Statistical Controversies: Hope for Sale?
		Behavioral and social science experiments
		Statistics in Summary
		Link It
		Case Study Evaluated
		Chapter 7 Exercises
		Exploring the Web
		Notes and Data Sources
	8 Measuring
		Case Study
		Measurement basics
		Know your variables
		Measurements, valid and invalid
		Measurements, accurate and inaccurate
		Statistical Controversies: SAT Exams in College Admissions
		Improving reliability, reducing bias
		Pity the poor psychologist
		Statistics in Summary
		Link It
		Case Study Evaluated
		Chapter 8 Exercises
		Exploring the Web
		Notes and Data Sources
	9 Do the Numbers Make Sense?
		Case Study
		What didn’t they tell us?
		Are the numbers consistent with each other?
		Are the numbers plausible?
		Are the numbers too good to be true?
		Is the arithmetic right?
		Is there a hidden agenda?
		Statistics in Summary
		Link It
		Case Study Evaluated
		Chapter 9 Exercises
		Exploring the Web
		Notes and Data Sources
	Part I Review
		Part I Summary
		Part I Review Exercises
		Part I Projects
		Notes and Data Sources
PART II Organizing Data
	10 Graphs, Good and Bad
		Case Study
		Data tables
		Pie charts and bar graphs
		Beware the pictogram
		Change over time: line graphs
		Watch those scales!
		Making good graphs
		Statistics in Summary
		Link It
		Case Study Evaluated
		Chapter 10 Exercises
		Exploring the Web
		Notes and Data Sources
	11 Displaying Distributions with Graphs
		Case Study
		Histograms
		Interpreting histograms
		Stemplots
		Statistics in Summary
		Link It
		Case Study Evaluated
		Chapter 11 Exercises
		Exploring the Web
		Notes and Data Sources
	12 Describing Distributions with Numbers
		Case Study
		Median and quartiles
		The five-number summary and boxplots
		Statistical Controversies: Income Inequality
		Mean and standard deviation
		Choosing numerical descriptions
		Statistics in Summary
		Link It
		Case Study Evaluated
		Chapter 12 Exercises
		Exploring the Web
		Notes and Data Sources
	13 Normal Distributions
		Case Study
		Density curves
		The center and spread of a density curve
		Normal distributions
		The 68–95–99.7 rule
		Standard scores
		Percentiles of Normal distributions
		Statistics in Summary
		Link It
		Case Study Evaluated
		Chapter 13 Exercises
		Exploring the Web
		Notes and Data Sources
	14 Describing Relationships: Scatterplots and Correlation
		Case Study
		Scatterplots
		Interpreting scatterplots
		Correlation
		Understanding correlation
		Statistics in Summary
		Link It
		Case Study Evaluated
		Chapter 14 Exercises
		Exploring the Web
		Notes and Data Sources
	15 Describing Relationships: Regression, Prediction, and Causation
		Case Study
		Regression lines
		Regression equations
		Understanding prediction
		Correlation and regression
		The question of causation
		Statistical Controversies: Gun Control and Crime
		Evidence for causation
		Statistics in Summary
		Link It
		Case Study Evaluated
		Chapter 15 Exercises
		Exploring the Web
		Notes and Data Sources
	16 The Consumer Price Index and Government Statistics
		Case Study
		Index numbers
		Fixed market basket price indexes
		Using the CPI
		Understanding the CPI
		Statistical Controversies: Does the CPI Overstate Inflation?
		The place of government statistics
		The question of social statistics
		Statistics in Summary
		Link It
		Case Study Evaluated
		Chapter 16 Exercises
		Exploring the Web
		Notes and Data Sources
	Part II Review
		Part II Summary
		Part II Review Exercises
		Part II Projects
		Notes and Data Sources
PART III Chance
	17 Thinking about Chance
		Case Study
		The idea of probability
		The ancient history of chance
		Myths about chance behavior
		Personal probabilities
		Probability and risk
		Statistics in Summary
		Link It
		Case Study Evaluated
		Chapter 17 Exercises
		Exploring the Web
		Notes and Data Sources
	18 Probability Models
		Case Study
		Probability models
		Probability rules
		Probability models for sampling
		Statistics in Summary
		Link It
		Case Study Evaluated
		Chapter 18 Exercises
		Exploring the Web
		Notes and Data Sources
	19 Simulation
		Case Study
		Where do probabilities come from?
		Simulation basics
		Thinking about independence
		More elaborate simulations
		Statistics in Summary
		Link It
		Case Study Evaluated
		Chapter 19 Exercises
		Exploring the Web
		Notes and Data Sources
	20 The House Edge: Expected Values
		Case Study
		Expected values
		The law of large numbers
		Thinking about expected values
		Statistical Controversies: The State of Legalized Gambling
		Finding expected values by simulation
		Statistics in Summary
		Link It
		Case Study Evaluated
		Chapter 20 Exercises
		Exploring the Web
		Notes and Data Sources
	Part III Review
		Part III Summary
		Part III Review Exercises
		Part III Projects
		Notes and Data Sources
PART IV Inference
	21 What Is a Confidence Interval?
		Case Study
		Estimating
		Estimating with confidence
		Understanding confidence intervals
		More on confidence intervals for a population proportion
		The sampling distribution of a sample mean
		Confidence intervals for a population mean
		Statistics in Summary
		Link It
		Case Study Evaluated
		Chapter 21 Exercises
		Exploring the Web
		Notes and Data Sources
	22 What Is a Test of Significance?
		Case Study
		The reasoning of statistical tests of significance
		Hypotheses and P-values
		Statistical significance
		Calculating P-values
		Tests for a population mean
		Statistics in Summary
		Link It
		Case Study Evaluated
		Chapter 22 Exercises
		Exploring the Web
		Notes and Data Sources
	23 Use and Abuse of Statistical Inference
		Case Study
		Using inference wisely
		The woes of significance tests
		The advantages of confidence intervals
		Significance at the 5% level isn’t magical
		Statistical Controversies: Should Significance Tests Be Banned?
		Beware of searching for significance
		Statistics in Summary
		Link It
		Case Study Evaluated
		Chapter 23 Exercises
		Exploring the Web
		Notes and Data Sources
	24 Two-Way Tables and the Chi-SquareTest
		Case Study
		Two-way tables
		Inference for a two-way table
		The chi-square test
		Using the chi-square test
		Simpson’s paradox
		Statistics in Summary
		Link It
		Case Study Evaluated
		Chapter 24 Exercises
		Exploring the Web
		Notes and Data Sources
	Part IV Review
		Part IV Summary
		Part IV Review Exercises
		Part IV Projects
		Notes and Data Sources
Resolving the Controversy
Solutions to Now It’s Your Turn Exercises
Answers to Odd-Numbered Exercises
Index
Table A Random digits
Table B Percentiles of the Normal distributions