Setting Environmental Standards-The Statistical Approach to Handling Uncertainty and Variation

Preface, Acknowledgement, 1 Introduction, 1.1 Setting standards: uncertainty and variation, 1.2 Terminology, 1.2.1 Pollutant, 1.2.2 Medium, 1.2.3 Location, 1.2.4 Sample unit, 1.2.5 Sample, 1.2.6 Sample statistic, 1.2.7 Subject group, 1.2.8 Effect, 1.2.9 Impact measure, 1.2.10 Towards a classification system for environmental pollution, 1.3 Overview of environmental standard-setting, 1.3.1 Kinds of standard, 1.3.2 Balancing cost and benefit, 1.3.3 Testing compliance, 1.3.4 Where should standards be set?, 1.4 Sources of uncertainty and variation, 1.4.1 The pollutant–effect relationship, 1.4.2 Other causes, 1.4.3 Variability within the standard, 1.4.4 Sample variation, 1.5 Representation of uncertainty, 1.5.1 Probability and probability distributions, 1.5.2 Interpretations of probability, 1.5.3 Risk and risk analysis, 1.6 Some examples of statistics at work, 1.6.1 Diesel fuel, 1.6.2 Water distribution and disposal, 1.6.3 General, 1.7 Probability and statistics in standard-setting, 2 Basic considerations in setting standards, 2.1 Outline of this chapter, 2.2 Positioning a standard, 2.2.1 Standards as objectives, 2.2.2 Positioning the standard, 2.2.3 Costs and benefits, 2.2.4 Uncertain causality, 2.3 Ideal and realizable standards, 2.3.1 Positioning ideal and realizable standards, 2.3.2 Flexibility and complexity, 2.4 Acknowledging variation, 2.4.1 Variation and the statement of an ideal standard, 2.4.2 Choice of features to control, 2.4.3 Uncertainty due to sampling variation, 2.5 Statistically verifiable ideal standards, 2.5.1 Statistical verification, 2.5.2 The statistically verifiable ideal standard, 2.5.3 Example, 2.5.4 Contrast with ideal and reali7able standards, 2.5.5 Statistical quality and the benefit of the doubt, 2.5.6 Implementation issues, 2.6 Multiple standards, 2.6.1 Uncertainty in the cost–benefit chain, 2.6.2 Consistency, 2.7 Analysing costs and benefits, 2.8 Current approaches to setting a level, 2.8.1 Some current guiding principles, 2.8.2 Proper recognition of uncertainty and variation, 2.8.3 The precautionary principle, 2.9 Concluding remarks, 3 The pollutant–effect relationship and other links, 3.1 Links in the chain, 3.1.1 Links in general, 3.1.2 Pollutant and effect, 3.2 Describing and measuring the pollutant–effect relationship, 3.2.1 Mechanistic and statistical models, 3.2.2 Hybrid models, 3.2.3 Example: radiological protection, 3.2.4 Uncertainties in models, 3.2.5 Quantifying uncertainty and eliciting expert opinion, 3.2.6 Weak links, 3.2.7 Model validation, 3.2.8 Probabilistic risk assessment and Monte Carlo probabilistic risk assessment, 3.2.9 Uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis, 3.3 Recent major reviews, 3.4 Selective overview of recent published work on pollutant–effect relationships, 3.4.1 Sample data, 3.4.2 Specific applications, 3.4.3 Spatial and temporal variation, 3.4.4 Dose-response methods, 3.4.5 Bayesian methods, 3.4.6 Other statistical methods, and modelling approaches, 3.4.7 Deterministic (mechanistic) models, 3.5 Some current less formal emphases for analysing or categorizing the pollutant–effect relationship, 3.5.1 Environmental impact analysis (EIA), 3.5.2 Critical groups, 3.5.3 Critical levels and critical loads, 3.5.4 Combining information, 3.5.5 Extrapolation factors, 3.6 Summary, 4 Current and developing incorporation of uncertainty and variability in standard-setting, 4.1 Introduction, 4.2 Statistical pollution studies linked to standards interests, 4.3 The changing scene: attempts to incorporate statistical arguments in the setting of standards, 4.3.1 Contaminated land, 4.3.2 Water quality, 4.3.3 Air quality, 4.3.4 Toxicology and dose response, 4.3.5 General matters, 4.4 Progression, 5 Current standards: examples, 5.1 The extent to which uncertainty and variation are considered, 5.2 Examples where quite sophisticated treatment of uncertainty and variation is employed, 5.2.1 Statutory water quality objectives, 5.2.2 The US ozone standard, 5.2.3 Land-based disposal of low- and intermediate-level nuclear waste, 5.3 Examples which pay no regard for uncertainty and variation, 5.4 Summary, 6 Conclusions: the current situation and a forward look, 6.1 Broad principles for setting sound standards, 6.2 The present situation, 6.3 A look forward, 6.3.1 Format of standards, 6.3.2 Setting the level, 6.3.3 The need for statisticians, 6.4 Overview, References, Index