Russian–American Nuclear Nonproliferation Dialogue: Lessons Learned And Road Ahead

Foreword by William Potter
Foreword by Anatoly Torkunov
Acknowledgments
Contents
Notes on Contributors
Acronyms
1 Preface: The Road Ahead Will Be Mastered By the Walking
	1.
	2.
	3.
2 Introduction
Part I Soviet/Russian–American Cooperation on NPT Negotiations and Extension
3 Negotiations on Articles I and II of NPT: History and Lessons Learned
	Origins of the Multilateral Nuclear Force Proposal
	Start of Negotiations on the Non-Proliferation Treaty
	Drafting of Articles I and II of the Non-Proliferation Treaty
	Revival of the Nuclear Sharing Issue after the End of the Cold War
	Conclusions
4 Russian–American Cooperation on NPT Extension: Lessons Learned
	In the Lead-Up to the 1995 Review and Extension Conference
		States Parties’ Positions Prior to the NPTREC
	Preparations for the Review and Extension Conference
	Views on the NPT’s Extension Before the 1995 Conference
	Deliberations
	Negotiation of the ‘Package Deal’
	Negotiation of the Resolution on the Middle East
	Conclusions
Part II Russian–American Dialogue on Regional Challenges to Nonproliferation
5 Dialogue on the Iranian Nuclear Program: Lessons Learned and Ignored (1992–2020)
	Policy Foundations
	1992–2000. The U.S. Adjusts Russian Policy
		Political Background
		Results
		Lessons
	2001–2010. Russia Balances Out U.S. Policy on Iran
		Political Background
		Results
		Lessons
	2011–2016. Russia Facilitates Negotiations
		Political Background
		Results
		Lessons
	2017–2020. The U.S. Unravels the Deal
		Political Background
		Results
	Conclusion
6 Exchanges on Establishment of a Zone Free of Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East
	Introduction
	Ideas on the Establishment of a Nuclear-Weapons-Free Zone in the Middle East
	1995 Review and Extension Conference
		Incentives and Obstacles to Cooperation
		Dimensions of U.S.–Russian Cooperation
	Factors Contributing to Successful Cooperation
	2000 NPT Review Conference
	2010 NPT Review Conference, Glion and Geneva
		Incentives and Obstacles to Cooperation
		Dimensions of U.S.–Russian Cooperation
	The 2012 Conference and the Informal Multilateral Consultation Process
		Incentives and Obstacles to Cooperation
		Dimensions of U.S.–Russian Cooperation
	Factors Contributing to Successful Cooperation
	Results of the 2005 and 2015 Review Conferences
	Study of Russian and U.S. Proposals
	Preparing for the 10th NPT Review Conference
	Conclusions
Part III Russian–American Dialogue on Arms Control
7 Negotiations of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty
	Article VI of NPT and the Beginning of the Soviet–U.S. Dialogue
	Interruption of the Dialogue in Early 1980s and Its Resumption
	The Role of Offense–Defense Relationship in the Dialogue
	START Negotiations After Reykjavik Summit
	1989: New Stage of START
	Defense and Space Debates in 1989–1991
	Negotiations on START in 1989–1991
	Political Struggle in Moscow and Washington Around START
	Internal Diplomacy
	Conclusions
8 Comparing Approaches Towards Global Zero in the Modern Period
	1995–2000: NPT Review Process and Progress on Article VI Obligations
		1995 NPT Review Conference
		2000 NPT Review Conference
	2009–2016: The ‘Prague Speech’ Period
		Obama and Medvedev Governments Drive the Abolitionist Agenda
		SORT vs. The New START
		SORT Treaty
		New START
		Resolution of the Most Contentious Point in the Negotiations
		A Call for Further Cuts
		Nuclear Arsenal Modernization Programs
		Russia and the United States in the NPT Review Process in 2010–2015
		2010 Review Conference
		2015 Review Conference
		Conclusion
	2016–2020: The Trump Administration
		Changes in Nuclear Disarmament Rhetoric
		‘Next-Generation Arms Control’
		2018 and 2019 NPT Preparatory Committees
		Conclusion
	Looking Ahead and Lessons Learned
		Arms Control Process Is Dependent on Both Strategic and Political Factors
		A Resilient Backchannel Dialogue Between Decision-Makers in Moscow and Washington
		Nuclear Weapons Perception as a Guarantee of Security Has to Change
		Moral Norms and Public Pressure May Influence Leadership’s Personal Agenda
		Political Will Means Flexibility in Negotiation
		Personal Relationships Between the Negotiators Matter
		Russia-U.S. Cooperation During the NPT Review Conferences  Is an Important Element of Success
		Cooperation Between the Nuclear Weapons states and the NPT Groupings Is Necessary
		Diplomatic Engagement Outside of the NPT Is Extremely Beneficial
		Rhetoric on NPT Article VI Has to be Backed Up by Concrete Actions
		High-Level Engagement Creates an Environment That Is More Conducive to Results
9 Nuclear Sharing Arrangements: Military-Technical Aspects and Controversies
	NATO Nuclear Sharing Arrangements: A Primer
	The Tacit Understanding
	Did the Soviet Union Have Its Own Nuclear Sharing?
	From 1967 to 1991: Decline in Numbers of Us Nuclear Warheads and Systems Deployed in Europe
	After the Cold War: In Search of Raison d’être
	Reemergence of Russian–U.S. Debate on Nuclear Sharing
	What Prompted the Reappraisal of the Russian Position?
	Conclusions
Part IV Russian–American Cooperation on Nuclear Security and Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy
10 Cooperative Threat Reduction and Nuclear Security Initiatives in Bilateral Relations
	Cooperative Threat Reduction Overview
	G8 Global Partnership Overview
	Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism Overview
	Key Lessons of Cooperation
		Russia’s Interests
		United States and European Interests
	Origins of Russia’s Discontent with Cooperation
	Conclusions
11 Cooperation on Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy
	Finding the Way Out of the Cold War
	HEU-LEU Agreement
	Plutonium Management Disposition Agreement (PMDA)
	Lab-to-Lab Cooperation
	Recent Attempts to Restore Cooperation
	Prospects for Future Cooperation
	Conclusions
Part V Russian–American Nonproliferation and Arms Control Dialogue Since 1991: From Patronage to Failed Partnership … What’s Next?
12 Interaction on Nuclear Nonproliferation in 1990s Through a Prism of Archival Documents
	Removal of Nuclear Weapons from Ukraine
	Contradictions on Iran Nuclear and Missile Programs
	The Cooperative Threat Reduction Program
	Yeltsin-Clinton Dialogue on NPT Extension
	Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
	Conclusions
13 Dialogue on Nuclear Issues: Road to Failed Partnership
	United States in Pursuit of Absolute Security
	The Law of Force or the Force of Law?
	Same Game, Different Players—Same Song, Different Chorus
	Gain an Inch and Ask for a Yard
	Utilitarian Ethics in Action
	Conclusions
14 Dialogue on Nuclear Nonproliferation Under Trump Administration
	Failure and Legacy of 2015 NPT Review Conference
	The 2017–2022 NPT Review Cycle
	Nuclear Ban and Humanitarian Initiative
	CEND: Creating Excuses for No Disarmament?
	New START Implementation and Extension Debates
	P5: Any Chances for Successful Engagement?
	Iran Nuclear Deal
	IAEA Safeguards
	Why No Cooperation?
	Prospects for the Future
	Lessons Learned
15 Conclusions
	1966–1991: Superpower Cooperation
	1991–2000: Rise and Fall of U.S. Patronage
	2001–2008: Consolidation of Unilateralism in U.S. Approaches to Nonproliferation
	2009–2015: Reset & Error 404
	2016–Present: Distrust and Rhetoric. What’s Next?
Index