Real estate and globalisation

Real Estate and Globalisation......Page 5
Contents......Page 7
Foreword......Page 13
Preface......Page 15
Acknowledgements......Page 17
A remarkable decade for real estate......Page 19
Based on a flawed global economic model......Page 30
The real estate research agenda......Page 35
Background to this book......Page 36
2: Macro-economics and real estate......Page 39
Impact of the recession on US property markets – evidence so far (November 2001)......Page 42
State of global property going into 2004 (January 2004)......Page 44
Is the global recovery running out of steam? (November 2004)......Page 46
The outlook for private business investment in 2010 (January 2010)......Page 49
Are we heading towards global deflation? (December 2001)......Page 52
Deflationary conditions may be already present in parts of the West (October 2002)......Page 53
Are buoyant asset markets enough to stimulate recovery? (March 2010)......Page 55
Has the global economy passed its worst? (July 2001)......Page 58
How will rising interest rates impact real estate markets? (January 2011)......Page 61
Is the USA really in recovery? (December 2002)......Page 63
Investment could lead the recovery – but not yet (July 2003)......Page 66
UK savings rates have recovered, but the USA still looks out of balance (September 2002)......Page 67
How to save the world: by not saving (December 2009)......Page 69
Events to watch – is OPEC about to set off a second oil crisis? (October 2000)......Page 72
How is this oil shock different from the 1970s? (October 2005)......Page 74
Global financial markets – remaining challenges to a sustained recovery (August 2010)......Page 76
The Euro finally arrives – but will that make much of a difference? (January 2002)......Page 79
Germany (April 2002)......Page 80
Germany’s economic situation (April 2003)......Page 82
3: Real estate and recessions......Page 85
An overheated housing market may cloud the Spanish economic landscape? (November 2006)......Page 87
When will the US housing market turn? (January 2009)......Page 90
The sub-prime storm – impact on Europe (October 2007)......Page 93
A year on: the sub-prime crisis from a Spanish perspective (August 2008)......Page 96
Global headwinds – US real estate debt (February 2010)......Page 99
How close are we to a new ‘Great Depression’? (October 2008)......Page 101
Printing money – will it work? (April 2009)......Page 104
Are recessions bad for real estate? (February 2008)......Page 107
4: Inflation and real estate......Page 111
Does property provide a hedge against inflation? (September 2009)......Page 114
Linking rents to construction cost inflation – the French case (March 2008)......Page 116
Oil prices, inflation and real estate (July 2008)......Page 119
Is inflation building up in the world economy? (June 2010)......Page 122
Can oil prices cause a global inflation problem? (June 2004)......Page 125
Are food prices driving inflation up? (December 2007)......Page 126
Real wages and real estate in the UK (February 2011)......Page 129
5: Retailing and retail property......Page 133
Splitting retail property into food and non-food can increase portfolio performance (November 2003)......Page 136
A prosperous future for UK shopping places? (December 2006)......Page 138
Examining European retail rents (January 2006)......Page 141
Perspective on international retail (October 2001)......Page 144
Consumer confidence and consumer spending (June 2003)......Page 147
The outlook for UK retail (August 2009)......Page 148
USA retail outlook (August 2004)......Page 151
What will an end to the run-up in house prices mean for consumer spending? (April 2005)......Page 153
Retail fundamentals (January 2003)......Page 157
US retailing in recession (May 2009)......Page 159
Luxury retailing in Europe (June 2007)......Page 161
State of health in the retail market in continental Europe (October 2009)......Page 164
6: Property companies and REITs......Page 167
Small investors should wait for the REIT moment to invest in property securities! (January 2007)......Page 169
Listed real estate in a ‘perfect storm’ – the case of Spain (November 2008)......Page 172
Beta and the cost of equity capital to the UK property sector (May 2008)......Page 175
7: Real estate and construction......Page 179
What factors determine construction costs? (March 2006)......Page 181
Is there a global construction boom? (April 2007)......Page 183
UK construction costs and the recession (March 2006)......Page 185
8: Asia......Page 191
China/WTO (January 2002)......Page 194
Chinese currency reform (December 2004)......Page 196
What’s the outlook for the Chinese economy? (June 2009)......Page 197
Will China’s problematic inflation subside? (June 2008)......Page 200
Is real estate in China heading for a hard landing? (March 2011)......Page 202
What’s happening to Japan? (March 2004)......Page 206
Japan capital values (September 2004)......Page 208
Bank of Japan ends quantitative easing – the impact on property will be neutral (April 2006)......Page 211
The growing significance of Asia-Pacific real estate (November 2007)......Page 213
9: Real estate returns......Page 217
Do investors care about the standard deviation of property investment returns? (July 2009)......Page 219
Returns and capitalisation rates in US real estate (August 2006)......Page 221
The economics of global property returns (May 2007)......Page 225
Does gearing work? (October 2010)......Page 228
10: Residential real estate......Page 231
The potential for investment in European residential property (September 2007)......Page 234
Investment opportunities in US housing (July 2010)......Page 237
Trends in owner-occupied residential prices are not always a guide to value trends in the investment sector (August 2003)......Page 239
How important is confidence in the Asian luxury residential market? (October 2002)......Page 242
Luxury residential – the tale of three cities (September 2005)......Page 243
What drives Prime Central London residential prices? (September 2006)......Page 245
US home prices looking more exposed (August 2005)......Page 248
Why do commentators continue to talk of a UK housing crash that never seems to come? (June 2002)......Page 249
Australian residential outlook – as safe as houses? (December 2010)......Page 251
Australian residential prices – city trends drive performance (October 2006)......Page 254
11: Yields......Page 259
How far can yields move out? (January 2008)......Page 262
Bond yields, real estate markets and globalisation (May 2010)......Page 265
Cross-country determinants of investment yields (March 2005)......Page 268
How does the risk of rising interest rates affect property yields and expectations for property performance? (February 2006)......Page 270
Can movements in corporate bond yields tell us anything about movements in property yields? (December 2005)......Page 273
Capital flows to emerging markets (May 2006)......Page 275
Real estate investment yields – bouncing up or down? (January 2005)......Page 278
Signs of change in the investment market? (January 2003)......Page 280
Lease flexibility and income security in international property markets (February 2004)......Page 282
Impact of tighter regulations on bank lending (November 2009)......Page 284
Appendix: Modelling global real estate yields (November 2008)......Page 288
12: Global office markets......Page 315
Just how rewarding is office sector investment? (February 2003)......Page 318
Supply-constrained office markets do deliver stronger rental growth – but not always (January 2004)......Page 320
Europe’s largest office markets are set to lead the recovery (April 2004)......Page 321
Office markets and the global economy (April 2008)......Page 325
Can local office markets buck international market trends? (July 2003)......Page 329
Euro zone convergence – economic myth and property reality (June 2006)......Page 330
Convergence continued – the US case (July 2006)......Page 332
Does income inequality affect office rents? (November 2005)......Page 336
13: Looking forward......Page 339
The case for increased pension fund allocation to real estate (September 2010)......Page 349
Index......Page 353