Probable Justice: Risk, Insurance, and the Welfare State

Contents\nPreface\nIntroduction\n	Out of Many, One\n	Justice and Chance\n	The Character of Probability\n	The Context of This Work\n	The Approach of the Project\n	Overview of the Argument\n	A Qualified Defense\nOne. The Origins of Risk and the Growth of Insurance\n	Insurance: A Brief Primer\n	The Early History of Modern Insurance\n	Pre-insurance Practices\n	The Emergence of Premium Insurance\n	The Theory and Practice of Early Marine Insurance\n	Probability Theory and the Doctrine of Aleatory Contracts\n	The Legal Background of Early Probability Theory\n	Probabilistic Justice\n	Equipossibility and the Distributive Turn\n	Life Insurance and Probabilistic Justice\n	Equity in Empirical Probability Theory\n	The Birth of Statistical Life Insurance\n	Mutualism with and without Risk\nTwo. Probabilistic Justice and the Beginnings of Social Insurance\n	Precursors to Social Insurance\n	Social Insurance and the Liberal Idea\n	Richard Price: Property and Political Arithmetic\n	Friendly Society Reform: Social Insurance Writ Small\n	The First Social Insurance Plans: Mutual Insurance Writ Large\n	Early Proposals\n	Condorcet: Probability and Perfectibility\n	Thomas Paine: Welfare without Insurance\nThree. The Promise of Probability\n	The Practical Aims of Late-Classical Probability\n	Inverse Probability\n	Epistemic Equiprobability\n	Between Individual Choice and Social Responsibility\n	A New Rationale and Its Challenges\n	Mathematical and Moral Expectation\n	A Social Duty to Insure?\n	Social Insurance in Theory and in Practice\n	Mutualism with and without Risk, Revisited\n	Causal Laws and Rational Planners\n	A Social Insurance Moment\nFour. The Collectivization of Risk and the Early Welfare States\n	The Rise of the Collective View of Chance\n	A New Interpretation of Probability\n	A Modified Case for Insurance\n	The Ethical Character of Frequentist Probability\n	Frequentist Social Welfare\n	Risk in the Early Welfare States\n	The Question of Responsibility\n	The Subjects and Targets of Social Policy\n	The Flexible Actuarialism of Early Social Insurance\nFive. The Egalitarian Welfare State and the Ambiguities of Insurance\n	The Egalitarian Welfare State Emerges\n	The Centrality of Insurance to Postwar Egalitarian Welfare\n	The Amorphous Appeal of Insurance\n	The Limits of Universal Social Insurance\n	Subjective Probability and the Personalization of Chance\n	Keynes’s Transitional Account\n	The Rise of the Subjectivist View\n	The Moral Character of Subjective Probability\n	The Egalitarian Welfare State without Probability\n	Probability versus Justice\n	Rawls and Social Insurance without Risk\n	The Persistence of Probability\n	Insurance and Distributive Theory after Rawls\n	The Fate of Social Insurance in the Twentieth Century and Beyond\n	The Problem of Polarization\n	The Impact of Information\nConclusion\n	The Long-Standing Appeal of Insurance\n	Explaining the Welfare State\n	The Limits of Social Insurance\n	A Contemporary Example\nAcknowledgments\nNotes\nIndex