Probabilistic Reliability Analysis of Power Systems: A Student’s Introduction

Preface
Contents
About the Authors
Part I Introduction
1 Introduction
	1.1 Reliability of Power Systems
	1.2 Definitions of Reliability and Risk
	1.3 Reliability Analysis of Power Systems
		1.3.1 Reliability Analysis Approach
		1.3.2 Deterministic Versus Probabilistic Analysis
		1.3.3 Software for Power System Reliability Analysis
		1.3.4 Test Networks
	1.4 Transmission System Operator (TSO) Activities
		1.4.1 Three Main Processes
		1.4.2 Grid Development
		1.4.3 Asset Management
		1.4.4 System Operation
		1.4.5 Overview of TSO Activities
	References
2 Power System Failures
	2.1 Component Failure Statistics
		2.1.1 Failure Frequencies
		2.1.2 Repair Times
	2.2 Component Failure Behavior
		2.2.1 Concepts and Definitions
		2.2.2 Causes of Component Failures
		2.2.3 Protection System Failures
		2.2.4 Resulting Faults
		2.2.5 Dependency and Correlation
	2.3 Historical Blackouts
		2.3.1 Large Blackouts
		2.3.2 Blackouts in the Netherlands
	2.4 Conclusion
	References
Part II Modeling
3 Reliability Models of Components
	3.1 Reliability Functions
		3.1.1 Basic Reliability Functions
		3.1.2 Bathtub Curve
		3.1.3 Negative Exponential Distribution
		3.1.4 Weibull Distribution
	3.2 Component Life Cycle
	3.3 Two-State Markov Model
		3.3.1 Unrepairable Component
		3.3.2 Repairable Component
	3.4 Stress-Strength Model
	3.5 Conclusion
	References
4 Reliability Models of Small Systems
	4.1 Reliability Networks
		4.1.1 Series Connections
		4.1.2 Parallel Connections
		4.1.3 Dependent Failures
		4.1.4 Mixed Series-Parallel Networks
	4.2 Markov Models
		4.2.1 Creation of a Markov Model
		4.2.2 Solution of the Markov Model
		4.2.3 Markov Models of Individual Components
		4.2.4 Markov Models of Small Systems
		4.2.5 Reduction Techniques
	4.3 Fault Tree and Event Tree Analysis
		4.3.1 Fault Tree Analysis
		4.3.2 Event Tree Analysis
	4.4 Conclusion
	References
5 Reliability Models of Large Systems
	5.1 State Enumeration
		5.1.1 Deterministic Contingency Analysis
		5.1.2 Probabilistic Reliability Indicators
		5.1.3 Probabilistic Cost Analysis
		5.1.4 State Enumeration of Large Power Systems
		5.1.5 State Enumeration as a (Partial) Markov Model
	5.2 Generation Adequacy Analysis
		5.2.1 Capacity Outage Probability Tables
		5.2.2 COPT Calculation Algorithm
		5.2.3 Loss of Load and Loss of Energy Indices
		5.2.4 Capacity Credit of Wind Energy
		5.2.5 Availability of Generators
	5.3 Monte Carlo Simulation
		5.3.1 Random Sampling of Component Failures
		5.3.2 Monte Carlo Simulation Algorithm
	5.4 Conclusion
	References
Part III Applications
6 Probabilistic Power Flow Analysis
	6.1 Uncertainties in Power Systems
		6.1.1 Sources of Uncertainty
		6.1.2 Load Modeling: The Gaussian Mixture Model
		6.1.3 Load Modeling: Gaussian Mixture Model—Example
	6.2 Power Flow Analysis
		6.2.1 Deterministic Power Flow Analysis
		6.2.2 Probabilistic Power Flow Analysis
	6.3 Probabilistic Power Flow Example
		6.3.1 Test System Description
		6.3.2 Probabilistic Model of Generic Power Demand (Loads)
		6.3.3 Probabilistic Model of Power Generation
		6.3.4 Probabilistic Model of Balancing Technologies
		6.3.5 Simulation Results
	6.4 Conclusion
	References
7 Extra-High-Voltage Underground Cables
	7.1 Reliability of Overhead Line and Underground Cable Connections
		7.1.1 Failure Statistics
		7.1.2 Reliability Calculations of Connections
		7.1.3 Failures in the Randstad380 Zuid Cable Connection
		7.1.4 Solutions to Improve the Reliability
	7.2 Reliability Analysis of the Dutch Transmission Network
		7.2.1 Approach of the Study
		7.2.2 Reliability of the Maasvlakte Region Network
		7.2.3 Underground Cables in the Dutch Transmission Network
	7.3 Conclusion
	References
8 Cyber-Physical System Modeling for Assessment and Enhancement of Power Grid Cyber Security, Resilience, and Reliability
	8.1 Acronyms
	8.2 The Cyber-Physical Power System
	8.3 Cyber Security and Resilience of Power Grids
		8.3.1 Security Controls for Power Grids
		8.3.2 Power Grid Vulnerabilities
		8.3.3 Research on Cyber Security and Resilience  of Cyber-Physical Power Systems
		8.3.4 Resilience of Cyber-Physical Power Systems  to Natural Disasters
	8.4 Cyber-Physical System Modeling
		8.4.1 Power System Layer
		8.4.2 Cyber System Layer
	8.5 Cyber-Physical System Testbed
	8.6 Cyber Attacks on Power Grids
	8.7 Conclusion
	References
Part IV Conclusion
9 Conclusion
Appendix A Probability and Statistics
A.1  Probability
A.2  Statistics
Appendix B Load Flow Calculations
B.1  Connectivity Study
B.2  Graph Flow
B.3  AC Load Flow
B.4  DC Load Flow
Appendix C Reliability Indicators
Appendix D Solutions
Index