Principles of risk analysis: decision making under uncertainty

Content: Cover
 Half Title
 Title Page
 Copyright Page
 Dedication
 Contents
 Preface
 About the Author
 Chapter 1: The Basics
 1.1 What is Risk?
 1.2 How Do We Identify a Risk?
 1.2.1 Trigger
 1.2.2 Hazard or Opportunity
 1.2.3 Consequence
 1.2.4 Sequence of Events
 1.2.5 Uncertainty
 1.3 What is Risk Analysis?
 1.3.1 Risk Management
 1.3.2 Risk Assessment
 1.3.3 Risk Communication
 1.3.4 Risk Semantics
 1.4 Why Do Risk Analysis?
 1.5 Who Does Risk Analysis?
 1.5.1 A Brief Historical Perspective on Risk Analysis
 1.5.2 Government Agencies
 1.5.3 Private Sector
 1.6 When Should We Do Risk Analysis? 1.7 Organization of Book1.8 Summary and Look Forward
 References
 Chapter 2: Uncertainty
 2.1 Introduction
 2.2 Uncertainty from 75,000 Feet
 2.3 The Uncertainty on Your Desk
 2.3.1 Knowledge Uncertainty or Natural Variability?
 2.3.2 Types of Uncertainty
 2.3.3 Quantity Uncertainty
 2.3.3.1 Empirical Quantities
 2.3.3.2 Defined Constants
 2.3.3.3 Decision Variables
 2.3.3.4 Value Parameters
 2.3.3.5 Index Variables
 2.3.3.6 Model Domain Parameters
 2.3.3.7 Outcome Criteria
 2.3.4 Sources of Uncertainty in Empirical Quantities
 2.3.4.1 Random Error and Statistical Variation 2.3.4.2 Systematic Error and Subjective Judgment2.3.4.3 Linguistic Imprecision
 2.3.4.4 Natural Variability
 2.3.4.5 Randomness and Unpredictability
 2.3.4.6 Disagreement
 2.3.4.7 Approximation
 2.4 Being Intentional about Uncertainty
 2.5 Summary and Look Forward
 References
 Chapter 3: Risk Management
 3.1 Introduction
 3.2 Identifying Risks
 3.2.1 Problem Recognition
 3.2.2 Problem Acceptance
 3.2.3 Problem Definition
 3.2.4 From Problems and Opportunities to Risks
 3.3 Risk Estimation
 3.3.1 Establish a Risk Analysis Process
 3.3.2 Individual Risk Management Activities 3.3.2.1 Develop a Risk Profile3.3.2.2 Establish Risk Management Objectives
 3.3.2.3 Decide the Need for a Risk Assessment
 3.3.2.4 Request Information Needed
 3.3.2.5 Initiate the Risk Assessment
 3.3.2.6 Consider the Results of the Risk Assessment
 3.4 Risk Evaluation
 3.4.1 Principles for Establishing Acceptable and Tolerable Levels of Risk
 3.4.1.1 Policy
 3.4.1.2 Zero Risk
 3.4.1.3 Weight of Evidence
 3.4.1.4 Precautionary Principle
 3.4.1.5 ALARA Principle
 3.4.1.6 Appropriate Level of Protection
 3.4.1.7 Reasonable Relationship
 3.4.1.8 Safety and Balancing Standards
 3.4.2 The Decision 3.5 Risk Control3.5.1 Formulating Risk Management Options
 3.5.2 Evaluating Risk Management Options
 3.5.2.1 Comparison Methods
 3.5.3 Comparing Risk Management Options
 3.5.3.1 Multicriteria Decision Analysis
 3.5.4 Making a Decision
 3.5.5 Identifying Decision Outcomes
 3.5.6 Implementing the Decision
 3.6 Risk Monitoring
 3.6.1 Monitoring
 3.6.2 Evaluation and Iteration
 3.7 Risk Communication
 3.8 Risk Management Models
 3.9 Summary and Look Forward
 References
 Chapter 4: Risk Assessment
 4.1 Introduction
 4.2 What Makes a Good Risk Assessment?
 4.3 Risk Assessment Defined