Price expectations in rising inflation

Front Cover
 Price Expectations in Rising Inflation
 Copyright Page
 Table of Contents
 INTRODUCTION TO THE SERIES
 Dedication
 PREFACE
 CHAPTER 1. INFLATION EXPECTATIONS: THE DIRECT APPROACH
 1.1. The Importance of Direct Estimates of Inflation Expectations
 1.2. A Brief Review of Direct Sources on Inflation Expectations
 1.3. The Mondo Economico Opinion Poll
 1.4. General Remarks on the Number and the Composition of Participants and Respondents to the Mondo Economico Surveys
 1.5. The First Series of Mondo Economico Surveys (2nd Semester 1952 to 2nd Semester 1977). 1.6. The Second Series of Mondo Economico Surveys (1st Semester 1978 to 2nd Semester 19801.7. The Third Series of Mondo Economico Surveys (from 1st Quarter 1981)
 1.8. General Remarks and Comparison with Other Surveys on Inflation Expectations
 CHAPTER 2. THE MEASUREMENT OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
 2.1. The Measurement of the Expected Rate of Inflation from Survey Data: General Remarks and the Case of Qualitative Surveys
 2.2. The Measurement of the Expected Rate of Inflation: Quantitative Surveys and the Mondo Economico Data. 2.3. The (Average) Expected Rate of Inflation and the Standard Deviation of Individual Expectations: Distribution Hypotheses and Results2.4. Tests of the Normal Hypothesis and of the Piecewise Uniform Correction, and the Selection of ""Best"" Estimates of the Means and Standard Deviations of Individual Expected Rates of Inflation
 2.5. Comparison between the Expectations of the ""Production"" and the ""Other"" Groups
 2.6. Summary of the Results
 Appendix to Chapter 2
 CHAPTER 3. EVALUATION OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS, 1: ACCURACY ANALYSIS
 3.1. Preliminary Analysis and General Remarks. 3.2. Actual vs. Anticipated Rates of Change of Prices3.3. The Evaluation of Forecasting Accuracy
 3.4. The Predictive Accuracy of the Inflation Expectations of the Respondents to Mondo Economic Surveys
 3.5. The Anticipation of Turning Points
 3.6. Summary of the Results
 3.6. Summary of the Results
 CHAPTER 4. EVALUATION OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS, 2: COMPARISON WITH ALTERNATIVE PREDICTORS
 4.1. The Predictors of Wholesale and Consumer Price Changes Chosen for Comparison
 4.2. Preliminary Comparison of Expected Rates of Price Changes and Alternative Predictors of Inflation. 4.3. Comparison in Terms of Predictive Accuracy of Inflation Expectations and Alternative Predictors4.4. Tests of Relative Forecasting Performance
 4.5. Turning Point Analysis
 4.6. Summary of the Results
 CHAPTER 5. UNBIASEDNESS AND RATIONALITY OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
 5.1. The Issue of ""Rational"" Expectations
 5.2. The Testing of Rational Expectations
 5.3. Statistical Analysis of Anticipation Errors and Tests of Unbiasedness
 5.4. Tests of Rationality of Inflation Expectations
 5.5. Aggregation Problems and Tests of Unbiasedness and Rationality.