Population Dynamics: A New Economic Approach

Contents......Page 12
1.1 Classical and Modern Population Theory......Page 18
1.2 Gaps Between Malthus and Becker......Page 19
1.3 Restrictions of Age-Specific Models......Page 20
1.4 Outline of this Book......Page 21
1.5 Readership Background......Page 24
I: STEADY STATES......Page 26
2.1 Background......Page 28
2.2 Preliminaries......Page 29
2.4 Projection Matrices and Functions......Page 30
2.5 Steady States of Branching Processes......Page 32
2.6 Verifying Positive Regularity......Page 34
2.7 Meaning of the Dominant Eigenvalue......Page 37
2.8 General Population Models in Previous Literature......Page 38
3.1 Steady-State Age Distribution......Page 39
3.2 Calculating Variable Means......Page 41
3.3 Welfare Impact of Population Growth: Consumption-Loan Model......Page 42
3.4 Welfare Impact of Population Growth: Neoclassical Growth Model......Page 43
3.5 Welfare Impact of Population Growth: Income Inequality......Page 45
3.6 Extensions and Comments......Page 46
4.1 Background......Page 47
4.2 Household Fertility Decision......Page 48
4.3 Verifying Positive Regularity......Page 50
4.4 Income-Specific Stable Population......Page 52
4.5 Comparative Dynamics of Income Distribution......Page 53
4.6 Comparative Statics of Growth Rate......Page 57
4.7 Empirical Estimation of the Transition Matrix......Page 58
5.1 Background......Page 61
5.2 Economic Decisions to Reduce Extinction Probability......Page 62
5.3 Probability of Lineage Extinction......Page 64
5.4 Lineage Preservation Decisions......Page 67
5.5 Some Analytical Examples......Page 69
5.6 Empirical Observations in History......Page 71
6.1 Background......Page 74
6.2 Two-Sex Models......Page 75
6.3 Fertility Decisions and Sex Preferences......Page 79
6.4 Micro Sex Preferences and Macro Sex Ratios......Page 81
6.5 Unequal Resource Division......Page 85
II: CYCLES AND TRANSITIONS......Page 88
7.1 Background......Page 90
7.2 Stationary Branching Processes......Page 91
7.3 Time-Variant Branching Processes......Page 92
7.4 Age-Specific Density Dependency......Page 95
7.5 Hopf Bifurcation and Cycles......Page 96
7.6 Predator–Prey Models......Page 100
7.7 Remarks......Page 101
8.1 Background......Page 103
8.2 The Critical-Mass Model......Page 105
8.3 Dynamic Custom Evolution......Page 107
8.4 Trying to Change the Custom......Page 110
8.5 Individual Interactions and Custom Cycles......Page 113
9.1 Background......Page 114
9.2 Occupation Switching and Population Dynamics......Page 117
9.3 Empirical Analysis......Page 121
9.4 Dynamics of Population Composition Under Anarchy......Page 126
9.5 Remarks on Individual Choices and Institutional Changes......Page 129
10.1 Background......Page 131
10.2 Theoretical Modeling......Page 134
10.3 Estimation and Statistical Tests......Page 137
10.4 Endogenous Easterlin Cycles......Page 140
10.5 Alternative Explanations of Easterlin Cycles......Page 144
11.1 Background......Page 146
11.2 Demographic Transition and Economic Growth......Page 148
11.3 Demographic Transition and Public Pension......Page 153
11.4 Intergenerational Transfers and Life-Cycle Consumption......Page 156
11.5 Composition Distortion of Inequality Measurement......Page 158
11.6 Demographic Transition and the Savings Rate......Page 161
12.1 Background......Page 163
12.2 Comparative Dynamics of Population Aging......Page 164
12.3 Applications of the Density-Pivoting Results......Page 170
12.4 Alternative Aging Indexes......Page 174
12.5 Summary of Results......Page 178
III: POPULATION DYNAMICS IN THE PAST AND IN THE FUTURE......Page 180
13.1 Background......Page 182
13.2 Some Stylized Evidence......Page 186
13.3 From Primitive to Market Economy: The Role of Population Size......Page 189
13.4 Infrastructure and the Division of Labor......Page 190
13.5 Population Size and the Division of Labor......Page 192
13.6 Discussion......Page 194
14.1 Background......Page 196
14.2 Nerlove's Model......Page 197
14.3 Ecology, Ethnology, and Economic Activities......Page 201
14.4 Toward a Mathematical Formulation......Page 205
15. Epilogue......Page 210
Notes......Page 214
References......Page 220
F......Page 236
S......Page 237
Y......Page 238
E......Page 239
P......Page 240
U......Page 241