Philosophy and Climate Science

Contents
List of Figures
List of Boxes
List of Tables
Preface
1 Introduction
2 Data
	2.1 Introduction
	2.2 The Nature of Scientific Data
	2.3 Evidence of Warming
	2.4 Satellite Data: A Cautionary Tale
	2.5 Evidence of Warming, Continued
	2.6 Conclusion
	Suggestions for Further Reading
3 Models
	3.1 Introduction
	3.2 Energy Balance Models
	3.3 The Nature of Models: Mediating Models
	3.4 Conclusion: How Good Are Energy Balance Models?
	Suggestions for Further Reading
4 Simulations
	4.1 Introduction
	4.2 What Is Computer Simulation?
	4.3 The Purposes of Climate Modeling
	4.4 Features of Computer Simulations of the Climate
	Suggestions for Further Reading
5 Chaos
	5.1 Introduction
	5.2 What Is Chaos?
	5.3 Two Toy Chaotic Models
	5.4 Mitigating Butterflies
	5.5 The Joint Weather/ Climate Strategy
	5.6 The Hawkmoth Effect
	5.7 Conclusion
	Suggestions for Further Reading
6 Probability
	6.1 Introduction
	6.2 Interpretations of Probability for Climate Science
	6.3 Chances and Credences
	6.4 … And How to Tell Them Apart
	6.5 Probabilities in Weather and Climate
	6.6 Conclusion
	Suggestions for Further Reading
7 Confidence
	7.1 Introduction
	7.2 Sources of Uncertainty
	7.3 How Uncertainty Is Quantified I: Ensembles and Sampling
	7.4 How Uncertainty Is Quantified II: Expert Elicitation
	7.5 Group Credences
	7.6 Confidence
	7.7 Conclusion
	Suggestions for Further Reading
8 Decision
	8.1 Statistical Inference: Two Paradigms
	8.2 Probability and Inference
	8.3 Risk and Uncertainty – Three Approaches
	8.4 Probability and Decision
	8.5 Cost Benefit Analysis
	8.6 Conclusion
	Suggestions for Further Reading
9 Values
	9.1 Introduction
	9.2 Risk
	9.3 Replies to the BRAIR
	9.4 A Model-Specific Response to BRAIR: Prediction Preference
	9.5 Models, Values, and Probabilities
	9.6 Imprecise Probabilities
	9.7 Values and Biases
	9.8 Conclusion
	Suggestions for Further Reading
10 Skill
	10.1 Introduction
	10.2 Verification and Validation
	10.3 An Alternative Picture
	10.4 Tuning Revisited
	10.5 Conclusion
	Suggestions for Further Reading
11 Robustness
	11.1 Introduction
	11.2 Robustness Analysis – A Focus on Models
	11.3 Robustness Analysis in Climate Science: Lloyd and Parker
	11.4 Robustness Analysis – Beyond Model Agreement
	11.5 Sufficient Diversity of Evidence – Cumulative Epistemic Power
	11.6 Conclusion: RA Diversity
	Suggestions for Further Reading
12 Diversity
	12.1 Introduction
	12.2 Explanatory Robustness
	12.3 Evidence of an ECS Hypothesis: Solely from Model Diversity
	12.4 Evidence of an ECS Hypothesis: Beyond Model Diversity
	12.5 Conclusion
	Suggestions for Further Reading
13 Social Epistemology
	13.1 Introduction
	13.2 First Branch: Social Interaction
	13.3 Second Branch: From Individuals to Groups
	13.4 Third Branch: Institutional Arrangements
	Suggestions for Further Reading
14 Epilogue
Appendix: Structural Stability and the “Hawkmoth Effect”
	A.1 What Is the Hawkmoth Effect Supposed to Be?
	A.2 Two Routes to a Hawkmoth Effect
	A.3 The Structural Stability Route
	A.4 The Demon’s Apprentice Route
	A.5 Small Arbitrary Model Perturbations
References
Index