Peace and Security Across the Taiwan Strait (St. Antony's)

Cover......Page 1
Contents......Page 6
List of Tables and Figures......Page 9
List of Abbreviations......Page 10
Preface and Acknowledgements......Page 12
Notes on the Contributors......Page 14
Origins of the Taiwan question......Page 18
Status quo for ever?......Page 21
The international context......Page 26
In search of a peaceful solution......Page 30
Introduction......Page 36
Policy-making for Taiwan affairs: structure and interaction......Page 37
Implications......Page 41
Case study: living with Chen Shui-bian......Page 49
The policy......Page 62
The context......Page 67
The ideas......Page 75
The institutions......Page 81
The players......Page 84
Conclusion......Page 90
4 China’s Bottom Line and Incentives for a Peaceful Solution......Page 94
Chinese nationalist sentiment and the Taiwan issue......Page 95
A two-pronged strategy......Page 98
A wait-and-see policy......Page 101
Conclusion......Page 110
The rise of China and the US ‘con-gagement’ policy......Page 116
The prospects of co-existence between Taiwan and China......Page 119
Taiwan’s challenges......Page 122
Conclusions and prospect......Page 125
Introduction......Page 128
Origins of the American role in Taiwan......Page 132
The Nixon/Kissinger opening......Page 135
Dealing with Lee Teng-hui......Page 137
Chen Shui-bian arrives on the scene......Page 139
Come the Bush administration......Page 140
Current trends......Page 143
Thinking about American policy in the period ahead......Page 147
China’s conditions for the use of force......Page 161
The American factor......Page 165
Military options......Page 166
Taiwan’s ability to defend itself......Page 173
Calculations behind the use of force......Page 178
8 The Alternative to Peace: War Scenarios......Page 185
Three levels of full-scale invasion......Page 187
Level A: air attack......Page 189
Level B: blockade......Page 200
Level C: amphibious and airborne operations......Page 201
Residual issues in war scenario......Page 202
Why have Taiwan Strait negotiations been frozen?......Page 206
Can there be a peaceful resolution to the deadlock?......Page 207
A China Commonwealth......Page 209
Conclusion......Page 210
Crux of the matter......Page 212
A proposal for peace......Page 215
C......Page 226
E......Page 228
I......Page 229
L......Page 230
N......Page 231
P......Page 232
S......Page 233
T......Page 234
U......Page 235
Z......Page 236