OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, VOLUME 2019 ISSUE 2.

Editorial  Policy changes to turn the tide
Conventional signs
1 General assessment of the macroeconomic situation
	Introduction
	Global growth will be held down by high uncertainty
		Global GDP, trade and investment growth have continued to slow
		Global growth is projected to remain subdued
		Price inflation will remain mild
	Key issues and risks
		Trade and investment tensions continue to rise and could spread further
		Uncertainty remains about the future UK-EU trade relationship
		Growth in China could slow more sharply than expected
		Risks to economic growth and financial stability interact
	Policy requirements
		Monetary policy considerations
		Fiscal policy considerations
		Options for domestic fiscal and monetary policy co-ordination
		Macroeconomic policy requirements in the emerging-market economies
		Greater structural reform ambition is called for in all economies
	References
	Annex 1.A. Policy and other assumptions underlying the projections
2 Focus Notes on selected macroeconomic and structural issues
	Focus Note 1: Addressing current trade tensions: Market-distorting government support
		Agriculture
		Industrial sectors
		What can be done about government support?
		References
	Focus Note 2: Escaping the low-inflation trap
		The slippage of inflation expectations
		Evidence of non-linear effects
		Non-linearity depending on inflation
		Non-linearity depending on the degree of slack
		Summary and possible policy implications
		References
	Focus Note 3: Rebalancing the policy mix in the euro area
		References
	Focus Note 4: Global policy co-operation is needed in the event of a deeper downturn
		Policy choices
		Results
	Focus Note 5: How effective are automatic fiscal stabilisers in preserving household income?
		Assessing automatic fiscal stabilisation of household disposable income
		Household income vs consumption stabilisation
		References
3 Developments in individual OECD and selected non-member economies
	Argentina
		The economy is in recession and policy uncertainty is high
		Stabilising the economy requires tight macroeconomic policies
		Reducing policy uncertainty is key to revive the economy
	Australia
		Economic activity has been weak
		Fiscal policy could be loosened
		Economic growth is projected to be stable
	Austria
		Growth has moderated
		Policy measures should address still high labour taxes and boost productivity through structural reforms
		Uncertainty over trade is a downside risk for the export-driven economy
	Belgium
		Economic growth has eased
		Further reforms are needed to boost productivity growth
		Consumption will continue to support growth, but risks are high
	Brazil
		The expansion is gaining momentum
		The fiscal outlook remains challenging, but monetary policy is supportive
		Growth is projected to gain momentum
	Bulgaria
		Economic growth remains strong
		More effective government spending and structural reforms would boost productivity
		Growth is projected to moderate
	Canada
		Economic growth has slowed
		Policy should support the economy
		Growth will remain subdued
	Chile
		Domestic demand is driving growth
		Achieving higher and more inclusive growth hinges on continuing reforms
		The projected pick-up in growth is surrounded by considerable uncertainty
	China
		Growth remains robust
		Fiscal stimulus will support growth alongside moderate monetary easing
		Growth is projected to slow
	Colombia
		Consumption and investment are driving growth
		Further structural reforms are needed to boost inclusive growth
		Growth is projected to stay robust
	Costa Rica
		Economic activity has slowed down
		Full implementation of the fiscal reform is key to rebuild confidence
		Growth is projected to remain modest
	Czech Republic
		Robust growth is driven by domestic demand
		Policies need to address labour shortages
		Robust growth is projected to continue
	Denmark
		The economy has been resilient
		Policies should aim at improving cost-efficiency
		Growth is projected to slow down
	Estonia
		Growth is slowing
		The role of fiscal policy is set to increase
		The weak global outlook weighs on exports and investment
	Euro area
		The slowdown is becoming entrenched
		Fiscal and structural reform efforts need to be stepped up
		Growth is projected to remain subpar
	Finland
		Growth is slowing
		Measures to boost employment and productivity are needed
		Growth is projected to weaken
	France
		Economic growth has been resilient
		Additional reforms would raise inclusive growth
		Domestic demand will keep driving growth
	Germany
		Weak external demand is offset by domestic forces
		There is fiscal space to respond to the downturn
		Enduring weak external demand is a risk to economic growth
	Greece
		The export-driven economic expansion continues
		Structural reforms and prudent fiscal policies are key to reducing public debt
		The recovery will firm
	Hungary
		Domestic demand is the main driver of growth
		Reversing macroeconomic policies would sustain the upswing
		Slower growth will not remove inflationary tensions
	Iceland
		Growth is recovering
		Policy is neutral
		Growth will recover gradually
	India
		The economy is bottoming out
		Fiscal and monetary policies are accommodative
		Growth is projected to rebound
	Indonesia
		Growth remains resilient
		Policy continues to balance stability and growth
		The domestic economy will remain solid notwithstanding external headwinds
	Ireland
		Underlying growth momentum has slowed but remains solid
		Fostering resilience is key
		Growth prospects hinge on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations
	Israel
		Growth remains robust
		Fiscal prudence is needed
		Growth will ease slightly
	Italy
		The economy has remained weak
		A comprehensive reform plan is key
		Growth will slowly resume
	Japan
		Domestic demand is supporting growth
		Meeting the intertwined challenges of population ageing and government debt
		Growth is projected to remain just above potential
	Korea
		Weak exports and investment are pulling down growth
		Macroeconomic policy support needs to be complemented by structural reforms
		Growth is vulnerable to the global environment
	Latvia
		Strong growth is set to moderate
		Strengthening productivity growth is essential as the population declines
		The global slowdown will further hurt growth
	Lithuania
		Growth has been resilient
		Strengthening skills remains a key priority
		Growth will slow
	Luxembourg
		Growth is relying more on domestic demand
		Policies are needed to promote green growth and increase productivity
		Growth will ease but remain robust
	Mexico
		Economic activity has weakened
		Reforms are required to promote more inclusive growth
		Growth is projected to increase modestly
	Netherlands
		Weak external demand is weighing on growth
		Fiscal policy will support the economy
		Weaker trade and Brexit are risks for growth
	New Zealand
		Economic growth is stable
		Monetary policy is expansionary but fiscal policy will become contractionary
		Economic growth will remain steady
	Norway
		Economic growth remains robust
		A broadly neutral stance of fiscal policy is appropriate
		Mainland output growth will slow and risks remain elevated
	Poland
		Domestic demand is driving growth
		Structural reforms would help to raise long-term growth
		Growth will gradually ease
	Portugal
		Domestic demand is the main driver of economic growth
		Fiscal consolidation will reduce public debt
		Economic growth is projected to edge down
	Romania
		Economic growth has been strong
		Fiscal space is limited
		GDP growth is projected to slow
	Slovak Republic
		The economy has slowed
		The fiscal stance is set to be neutral
		Growth will slow in 2020
	Slovenia
		Domestic inflationary pressures are building up
		Reducing the fiscal stimulus is required to prevent overheating
		Downside risks stem from prolonged tensions in international trade
	South Africa
		Falling exports and low domestic demand are weakening growth
		Reforms are needed to stimulate the economy
		Persistent low growth is set to continue
	Spain
		Growth has moderated
		Boosting productivity growth is key
		Growth is set to slow
	Sweden
		Growth is slowing markedly and unemployment is rising
		Policies are cushioning the downturn and fiscal space is available
		Growth will remain sluggish with downside risks
	Switzerland
		Growth has slowed
		Macroeconomic policy is set to become more expansionary
		External factors will exert a drag on growth
	Turkey
		Recovery is underway, but uncertainties remain very high
		Macroeconomic policy draws excessively on opaque instruments
		The recovery will be gradual and is vulnerable to substantial risks
	United Kingdom
		Economic uncertainty has held back investment
		Policy action will be needed to smooth the exit from the European Union
		Growth is projected to remain weak
	United States
		The economy is slowing
		Policies to address weakening growth are needed
		Risks abound around projected slowing economic growth
Statistical Annex